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Brighton and Hove Albion v Tottenham Hotspur — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 28 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

Brighton and Hove Albion
4–2
3.85 – 2.07 xG
Tottenham Hotspur
Shots
15 – 19
On target
9 – 3
Shots in box
13 – 14
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
2.28 – 0.74
Goals − xG
+0.05 – -0.07
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.01.12.23.34.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Jack Hinshelwood 10' — goalJoão Pedro 23' — goalEstupiñán 62' — goalJoão Pedro 74' — goalAlejo Véliz 80' — goalBen Davies 84' — goal
Brighton and Hove Albion 3.95 xGTottenham Hotspur 2.07 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Pedro Porro 3' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Danny Welbeck 4' — Saved Shot (0.25 xG, Open Play)Danny Welbeck 5' — Saved Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Facundo Buonanotte 5' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Jack Hinshelwood 10' — Goal (0.33 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 16' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jan Paul van Hecke 19' — Shot On Post (0.42 xG, From Corner)Lewis Dunk 19' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, From Corner)João Pedro 23' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Son Heung-Min 26' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)James Milner 31' — Shot On Post (0.10 xG, Open Play)Brennan Johnson 32' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 38' — Blocked Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 44' — Saved Shot (0.42 xG, Open Play)Facundo Buonanotte 45' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Richarlison 45' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Ben Davies 46' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, From Corner)Lewis Dunk 48' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Son Heung-Min 49' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Richarlison 52' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Iyenoma Destiny Udogie 55' — Saved Shot (0.40 xG, Open Play)Lewis Dunk 57' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Estupiñán 62' — Goal (0.02 xG, From Corner)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 70' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)João Pedro 74' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Alejo Véliz 80' — Goal (0.11 xG, Open Play)Ben Davies 84' — Goal (0.57 xG, From Corner)Alejo Véliz 90' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Dejan Kulusevski 91' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Pedro Porro 94' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 94' — Shot On Post (0.07 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 96' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Son Heung-Min 98' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Bryan Gil Salvatierra 99' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)
Brighton and Hove Albion attacking right Tottenham Hotspur attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot —
4' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.25 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Billy Gilmour
5' Brighton and Hove Albion Danny Welbeck 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Facundo Buonanotte
5' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot João Pedro
10' Brighton and Hove Albion Jack Hinshelwood 0.33 Open Play Right Foot Goal João Pedro
16' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Pascal Groß
19' Brighton and Hove Albion Jan Paul van Hecke 0.42 From Corner — Shot On Post Pascal Groß
19' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.14 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot —
23' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
26' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Dejan Kulusevski
31' Brighton and Hove Albion James Milner 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post —
32' Tottenham Hotspur Brennan Johnson 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Pedro Porro
38' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Richarlison
44' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.42 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot —
45' Brighton and Hove Albion Facundo Buonanotte 0.01 From Corner — Blocked Shot Pascal Groß
45' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Brennan Johnson
46' Tottenham Hotspur Ben Davies 0.12 From Corner — Missed Shot Pedro Porro
48' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.09 From Corner — Saved Shot James Milner
49' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
52' Tottenham Hotspur Richarlison 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Son Heung-Min
55' Tottenham Hotspur Iyenoma Destiny Udogie 0.40 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot —
57' Brighton and Hove Albion Lewis Dunk 0.07 Set Piece Right Foot Missed Shot —
62' Brighton and Hove Albion Estupiñán 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Goal James Milner
70' Tottenham Hotspur Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
74' Brighton and Hove Albion João Pedro 0.76 Right Foot Goal —
80' Tottenham Hotspur Alejo Véliz 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Goal Son Heung-Min
84' Tottenham Hotspur Ben Davies 0.57 From Corner — Goal Pedro Porro
90' Tottenham Hotspur Alejo Véliz 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Giovani Lo Celso
91' Tottenham Hotspur Dejan Kulusevski 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Emerson
94' Tottenham Hotspur Pedro Porro 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot —
94' Tottenham Hotspur Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post Iyenoma Destiny Udogie
96' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Giovani Lo Celso
98' Tottenham Hotspur Son Heung-Min 0.08 Open Play — Missed Shot Bryan Gil Salvatierra
99' Tottenham Hotspur Bryan Gil Salvatierra 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Iyenoma Destiny Udogie

Players

Brighton and Hove Albion

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
João Pedro FW 90 2 1 4 2 1.99 0.45 1.17
Jan Paul van Hecke DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.42 0.00 0.43
Jack Hinshelwood DR 90 1 0 1 0 0.33 0.00 0.43
Lewis Dunk DC 90 0 0 3 0 0.30 0.00 0.00
Jason Steele GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Pascal Groß MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.48 0.14
Billy Gilmour DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.25 0.73
Danny Welbeck FW 74 0 0 2 0 0.66 0.00 0.99
James Milner MC 74 0 1 1 2 0.10 0.10 0.43
Facundo Buonanotte AMC 64 0 0 2 1 0.13 0.41 0.62
Igor Julio DL 51 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.43
Estupiñán Sub 39 1 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.00
Carlos Baleba Sub 26 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Evan Ferguson Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jakub Moder Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Lallana Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Tottenham Hotspur

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ben Davies DC 90 1 0 2 0 0.69 0.00 0.15
Iyenoma Destiny Udogie DL 90 0 0 1 4 0.40 0.15 0.64
Son Heung-Min AML 90 0 1 5 2 0.30 0.21 0.46
Pedro Porro DR 90 0 1 2 3 0.08 0.74 0.20
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DMC 90 0 0 2 0 0.08 0.00 0.58
Dejan Kulusevski AMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.03 0.20
Guglielmo Vicario GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Emerson DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.22
Brennan Johnson AMR 75 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.10 0.15
Richarlison FW 70 0 0 2 1 0.20 0.12 0.32
Pape Sarr DMC 70 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub 20 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.08 0.27
Giovani Lo Celso Sub 20 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.15 0.30
Alejo Véliz Sub 15 1 0 2 0 0.21 0.00 0.21
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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