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Brommapojkarna v Djurgården — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 16 October 2026 · SWE-Allsvenskan · 2627

SWE-Allsvenskan results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Brommapojkarna win
22.2%
model 23.3%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.0%
Djurgården win
51.4%
model 50.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.4%
  2. 0-1 10.7%
  3. 1-2 9.6%
  4. 0-2 9.3%
  5. 0-0 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.549.7% Under 2.550.3%
BTTS yes52.4% BTTS no47.6%
Brommapojkarna 1+64.3% Brommapojkarna 2+27.5%
Djurgården 1+80.4% Djurgården 2+48.5%

Expected goals 1.03 – 1.63. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1457.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0255 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Djurgården have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.2% for Brommapojkarna. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.03 for Brommapojkarna and 1.63 for Djurgården.

Why Brommapojkarna

Nothing in the data singles out Brommapojkarna.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 23% in this competition.

Why Djurgården can win

Djurgården carry the stronger rating, 1655 Elo against 1457. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Brommapojkarna, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Djurgården, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Brommapojkarna: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Djurgården: 48% possession, 11.8 shots a match, 5.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Djurgården are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.00–1.87 1-1 11% 55% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win 57.1% 54.1% 36.6% 1.48× 1.85
Draw 23.6% 24.5% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
Brommapojkarna to win 19.3% 19.4% 40.7% 0.48× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården & not both score 30.6% 29.7% 18.8% 1.58× 3.37
Djurgården & both teams score 26.5% 25.2% 18.1% 1.39× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 17.3% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.58
Brommapojkarna & both teams score 10.1% 13.3% 17.3% 0.77× 7.55
Brommapojkarna & not both score 9.2% 8.4% 23.7% 0.35× 11.92
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 5.3% 1.57× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården & over 1.5 47.0% 45.2% 27.7% 1.63× 2.21
Djurgården & over 2.5 37.1% 34.9% 22.9% 1.52× 2.87
Djurgården & under 3.5 36.1% 34.9% 25.4% 1.37× 2.87
Djurgården & over 3.5 21.0% 21.7% 11.5% 1.89× 4.62
Djurgården & under 2.5 20.0% 18.0% 14.0% 1.29× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 17.5% 18.0% 18.1% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.5% 18.0% 18.1% 1.00× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 17.3% 18.0% 17.8% 1.01× 5.56
Brommapojkarna & over 1.5 14.2% 12.9% 34.6% 0.37× 7.77
Brommapojkarna & under 3.5 14.2% 12.9% 26.2% 0.49× 7.77
Brommapojkarna & over 2.5 11.4% 12.9% 25.4% 0.51× 7.77
Djurgården & under 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 9.2% 1.40× 7.77
Brommapojkarna & under 2.5 8.0% 7.9% 15.5% 0.51× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 5.3% 1.47× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.1% 7.9% 5.1% 1.55× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.1% 7.9% 5.1% 1.55× 12.70
Brommapojkarna & under 1.5 5.1% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.70
Brommapojkarna & over 3.5 5.1% 7.9% 14.8% 0.53× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (1UP) 70.4% 75.6% 1.32
Brommapojkarna (1UP) 37.5% 34.4% 2.91
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (2UP) 57.1% 55.1% 1.81
Brommapojkarna (2UP) 19.3% 17.6% 5.68
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win 2nd half 48.8% 45.6% 2.19
2nd half drawn 32.7% 34.5% 2.90
Brommapojkarna to win 2nd half 18.5% 19.1% 5.24
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (+2.5) 98.1% 96.3% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
Djurgården (+1.5) 93.0% 92.1% 76.3% 1.21× 1.09
Djurgården (+0.5) 80.7% 82.4% 59.3% 1.39× 1.21
Djurgården (-0.5) 57.1% 57.0% 36.6% 1.56× 1.75
Brommapojkarna (+0.5) 42.9% 43.0% 63.4% 0.68× 2.33
Brommapojkarna (-0.5) 19.3% 17.6% 40.7% 0.43× 5.68
Brommapojkarna (-1.5) 7.0% 7.9% 23.7% 0.33× 12.64
Brommapojkarna (-2.5) 1.9% 3.7% 11.5% 0.32× 26.95
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to concede 63.1% 67.3% 76.1% 0.88× 1.49
Djurgården clean sheet 36.9% 32.7% 23.9% 1.37× 3.05
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården clean sheet in 1st half 65.1% 69.0% 1.45
Djurgården to concede in 1st half 34.9% 31.0% 3.23
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården over 2.5 corners 87.9% 85.2% 1.17
Djurgården over 3.5 corners 76.4% 75.9% 1.32
Djurgården under 6.5 corners 65.1% 67.5% 1.48
Djurgården over 4.5 corners 62.4% 61.8% 1.62
Djurgården under 5.5 corners 52.0% 53.1% 1.88
Djurgården over 5.5 corners 48.0% 46.9% 2.13
Djurgården under 4.5 corners 37.6% 38.2% 2.62
Djurgården over 6.5 corners 34.9% 32.5% 3.08
Djurgården under 3.5 corners 23.6% 24.1% 4.16
Djurgården under 2.5 corners 12.1% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården under 3.5 goals 88.1% 87.9% 95.2% 0.92× 1.14
Djurgården over 0.5 goals 84.5% 81.4% 71.2% 1.14× 1.23
Djurgården under 2.5 goals 71.3% 71.9% 81.7% 0.88× 1.39
Djurgården over 1.5 goals 55.6% 59.5% 39.2% 1.52× 1.68
Djurgården under 1.5 goals 44.4% 40.5% 60.8% 0.67× 2.47
Djurgården over 2.5 goals 28.7% 28.1% 18.3% 1.53× 3.56
Djurgården under 0.5 goals 15.5% 18.6% 28.8% 0.65× 5.38
Djurgården over 3.5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 4.8% 2.51× 8.26
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården under 1.5 in 1st half 82.8% 83.1% 1.20
Djurgården over 0.5 in 1st half 52.6% 56.2% 1.78
Djurgården under 0.5 in 1st half 47.4% 43.8% 2.28
Djurgården over 1.5 in 1st half 17.2% 16.9% 5.92
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 55.0% 57.4% 36.0% 1.59× 1.74
Brommapojkarna (away no bet) 45.0% 42.6% 64.0% 0.67× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården even goals 51.2% 52.8% 53.2% 0.99× 1.89
Djurgården odd goals 48.8% 47.2% 46.8% 1.01× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 83.5% 83.0% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.5% 17.0% 5.88
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.9% 68.6% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.1% 31.4% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.0% 55.3% 1.81
Djurgården to score 2+ in a row 47.9% 45.9% 2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.4% 19.6% 5.11
Djurgården to score 3+ in a row 20.7% 19.5% 5.13
Brommapojkarna to score 2+ in a row 18.1% 16.4% 6.12
Brommapojkarna to score 3+ in a row 3.9% 2.6% 38.16
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården corners (+3.5) 91.2% 89.6% 1.12
Djurgården corners (+2.5) 86.0% 84.5% 1.18
Djurgården corners (+1.5) 78.8% 74.9% 1.34
Brommapojkarna corners (+3.5) 72.5% 70.7% 1.41
Brommapojkarna corners (+2.5) 62.7% 61.9% 1.62
Brommapojkarna corners (+1.5) 51.9% 52.5% 1.91
Djurgården corners (-1.5) 48.1% 47.5% 2.10
Djurgården corners (-2.5) 37.3% 38.1% 2.63
Djurgården corners (-3.5) 27.5% 29.3% 3.42
Brommapojkarna corners (-1.5) 21.2% 25.1% 3.98
Brommapojkarna corners (-2.5) 14.0% 15.5% 6.45
Brommapojkarna corners (-3.5) 8.8% 10.4% 9.58
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 37.5% 33.7% 2.97
12+ corners 31.5% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 31.1% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 76.7% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 73.0% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 68.5% 67.7% 1.48
Over 8.5 corners 62.5% 63.4% 1.58
Under 10.5 corners 59.0% 57.8% 1.73
Over 9.5 corners 51.6% 53.3% 1.88
Under 9.5 corners 48.4% 46.7% 2.14
Over 10.5 corners 41.0% 42.2% 2.37
Under 8.5 corners 37.5% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 31.5% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 27.0% 27.4% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 23.3% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.2% 11.5% 13.0% 0.88× 8.73
0-1 10.1% 11.5% 9.2% 1.25× 8.73
0-2 9.9% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.48
1-2 9.9% 7.4% 8.1% 0.91× 13.48
2-1 5.3% 7.4% 5.9% 1.27× 13.48
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 5.3% 1.39× 13.48
0-3 6.2% 7.4% 3.8% 1.94× 13.48
1-0 5.1% 7.4% 6.4% 1.17× 13.48
1-3 6.2% 7.4% 4.8% 1.53× 13.48
2-2 4.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.46
2-0 2.8% 1.7% 9.4% 0.18× 58.47
2-3 3.1% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.47
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.48
3-0 0.9% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.48
3-1 1.8% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.48
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.48
3-3 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.48
3-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.8% 2.24× 58.49
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 2.8% 0.61× 58.49
4-1 0.4% 1.7% 1.5% 1.12× 58.49
4-2 0.4% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.36× 58.49
Any other score 4.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.42× 58.46
0-4 2.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.47
1-4 2.9% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården leading at HT (DNB) 67.3% 73.9% 1.35
Brommapojkarna leading at HT (DNB) 32.7% 26.1% 3.83
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw (X2) 80.7% 80.6% 59.3% 1.36× 1.24
Brommapojkarna or Djurgården (12) 76.4% 75.5% 77.1% 0.98× 1.32
Brommapojkarna or draw (1X) 42.9% 45.9% 63.4% 0.73× 2.18
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw at HT 81.0% 84.4% 1.19
Brommapojkarna or draw at HT 60.8% 62.0% 1.61
Brommapojkarna or Djurgården at HT 58.2% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw (1UP) 80.7% 88.3% 1.13
Brommapojkarna or draw (1UP) 42.9% 52.7% 1.90
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården or draw in 2nd half 81.5% 80.9% 1.24
Brommapojkarna or Djurgården in 2nd half 67.3% 65.5% 1.53
Brommapojkarna or draw in 2nd half 51.2% 54.4% 1.84
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.2% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.8% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (DNB) 74.7% 71.5% 47.4% 1.51× 1.40
Brommapojkarna (DNB) 25.3% 28.5% 52.6% 0.54× 3.51
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score first 61.0% 64.4% 1.55
Brommapojkarna to score first 32.7% 27.2% 3.68
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.37
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.0% 51.4% 52.7% 0.98× 1.95
Not both teams to score 46.1% 48.6% 47.3% 1.03× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.7% 41.6% 39.9% 1.04× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 34.2% 34.3% 34.4% 1.00× 2.92
Not both score & over 2.5 11.8% 12.3% 13.2% 0.93× 8.11
Both score & under 2.5 11.2% 12.3% 13.0% 0.95× 8.11
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.3% 85.6% 84.2% 1.02× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 14.7% 14.4% 15.8% 0.91× 6.94
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.6% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.4% 26.0% 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.5% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.1% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 10.8% 9.29
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.6% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.4% 17.6% 5.67
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 56.6% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 43.4% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.3% 47.4% 49.1% 0.97× 2.11
4-6 goals 29.5% 26.5% 26.2% 1.01× 3.78
0-1 goals 21.5% 22.8% 20.4% 1.12× 4.39
7+ goals 2.7% 1.8% 4.8% 0.38× 54.52
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score exactly 1 28.9% 27.4% 32.3% 0.85× 3.65
Djurgården to score 3+ 28.7% 27.4% 18.3% 1.50× 3.65
Djurgården to score exactly 2 26.9% 27.4% 21.1% 1.30× 3.65
Djurgården to score exactly 0 15.5% 19.6% 28.8% 0.68× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna to score exactly 0 36.9% 35.6% 23.9% 1.49× 2.81
Brommapojkarna to score exactly 1 36.8% 35.6% 32.8% 1.08× 2.81
Brommapojkarna to score exactly 2 18.4% 18.9% 22.1% 0.85× 5.29
Brommapojkarna to score 3+ 8.0% 10.3% 21.6% 0.48× 9.72
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.8% 43.1% 2.32
Djurgården leading at HT 39.2% 38.0% 2.64
Brommapojkarna leading at HT 19.0% 15.6% 6.39
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården -1: 1 42.9% 42.8% 2.34
Djurgården -1: 2 33.5% 30.1% 3.32
Djurgården -1: X 23.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:1) 80.7% 77.5% 59.3% 1.31× 1.29
Draw (0:1) 12.3% 13.8% 17.3% 0.80× 7.23
Brommapojkarna (0:1) 7.0% 9.2% 23.7% 0.39× 10.89
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:2) 93.0% 90.8% 76.3% 1.19× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 5.1% 7.7% 12.5% 0.62× 12.97
Brommapojkarna (0:2) 1.9% 3.8% 11.5% 0.33× 26.65
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:3) 98.1% 96.6% 88.6% 1.09× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.5% 2.4% 6.9% 0.34× 42.20
Brommapojkarna (0:3) 0.4% 2.4% 4.8% 0.49× 42.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (0:4) 99.6% 98.1% 95.2% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 3.8% 0.31× 83.65
Brommapojkarna (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 0.94× 83.68
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna (1:0) 42.9% 43.1% 63.4% 0.68× 2.32
Djurgården (1:0) 33.5% 30.5% 16.5% 1.84× 3.28
Draw (1:0) 23.6% 21.8% 20.4% 1.07× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna (2:0) 66.5% 70.4% 83.5% 0.84× 1.42
Draw (2:0) 17.7% 15.7% 10.4% 1.50× 6.37
Djurgården (2:0) 15.8% 15.6% 6.4% 2.46× 6.39
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.9% 24.1% 4.14
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna to concede 84.5% 80.9% 71.2% 1.14× 1.24
Brommapojkarna clean sheet 15.5% 19.1% 28.8% 0.67× 5.23
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna to concede in 1st half 52.6% 56.2% 1.78
Brommapojkarna clean sheet in 1st half 47.4% 43.8% 2.28
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna under 6.5 corners 83.2% 80.9% 1.24
Brommapojkarna over 2.5 corners 75.6% 76.5% 1.31
Brommapojkarna under 5.5 corners 72.6% 71.9% 1.39
Brommapojkarna over 3.5 corners 58.5% 57.5% 1.74
Brommapojkarna under 4.5 corners 58.4% 57.5% 1.74
Brommapojkarna under 3.5 corners 41.5% 42.5% 2.35
Brommapojkarna over 4.5 corners 41.6% 42.5% 2.35
Brommapojkarna over 5.5 corners 27.4% 28.1% 3.56
Brommapojkarna under 2.5 corners 24.4% 23.5% 4.26
Brommapojkarna over 6.5 corners 16.8% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna under 3.5 goals 98.1% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
Brommapojkarna under 2.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 78.4% 1.18× 1.08
Brommapojkarna under 1.5 goals 73.7% 74.2% 56.5% 1.31× 1.35
Brommapojkarna over 0.5 goals 63.1% 63.5% 76.1% 0.83× 1.58
Brommapojkarna under 0.5 goals 36.9% 36.5% 23.9% 1.53× 2.74
Brommapojkarna over 1.5 goals 26.4% 25.8% 43.5% 0.59× 3.87
Brommapojkarna over 2.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 21.6% 0.36× 12.90
Brommapojkarna over 3.5 goals 1.9% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.53
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna under 1.5 in 1st half 93.0% 95.4% 1.05
Brommapojkarna under 0.5 in 1st half 65.1% 67.8% 1.48
Brommapojkarna over 0.5 in 1st half 34.9% 32.2% 3.10
Brommapojkarna over 1.5 in 1st half 7.0% 4.6% 21.91
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården (home no bet) 70.7% 66.4% 61.5% 1.08× 1.51
Draw (home no bet) 29.3% 33.6% 38.5% 0.87× 2.97
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna even goals 56.8% 55.5% 53.9% 1.03× 1.80
Brommapojkarna odd goals 43.2% 44.6% 46.1% 0.97× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.0% 32.2% 3.10
HT 0-1 22.9% 24.1% 4.15
HT 1-0 13.1% 10.9% 9.15
HT 1-1 10.0% 7.1% 14.01
HT 0-2 8.6% 7.1% 14.03
Any other HT score 4.9% 2.3% 43.25
HT 1-2 3.7% 2.3% 43.34
HT 2-0 2.8% 2.3% 43.40
HT 2-1 2.1% 2.3% 43.45
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården at HT / Djurgården at FT 33.6% 33.0% 3.03
Draw at HT / Djurgården at FT 20.0% 21.7% 4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.3% 12.7% 7.88
Brommapojkarna at HT / Brommapojkarna at FT 10.6% 12.7% 7.90
Draw at HT / Brommapojkarna at FT 7.4% 6.0% 16.67
Brommapojkarna at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 3.5% 28.77
Djurgården at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% 28.79
Brommapojkarna at HT / Djurgården at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.83
Djurgården at HT / Brommapojkarna at FT 1.3% 3.5% 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to score last 61.1% 61.9% 1.62
Brommapojkarna to score last 32.6% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.37
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.6% 1.08
Djurgården to lead by 1 at any time 70.4% 74.1% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 51.4% 50.7% 1.97
Djurgården to lead by 2 at any time 40.1% 39.2% 2.55
Brommapojkarna to lead by 1 at any time 37.5% 34.9% 2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 21.3% 19.6% 5.11
Djurgården to lead by 3 at any time 18.5% 14.9% 6.70
Brommapojkarna to lead by 2 at any time 11.5% 10.5% 9.57
Brommapojkarna to lead by 3 at any time 2.8% 1.6% 61.50
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården most corners 59.2% 55.5% 1.80
Brommapojkarna most corners 30.3% 34.2% 2.92
Corners level 10.5% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.5% 78.6% 78.4% 1.00× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.8% 78.6% 75.1% 1.05× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.5% 72.4% 71.8% 1.01× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.3% 63.4% 63.4% 1.00× 1.58
1-3 goals 61.5% 63.4% 64.1% 0.99× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.8% 53.2% 48.3% 1.10× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.5% 48.7% 45.0% 1.08× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.3% 48.7% 49.1% 0.99× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.2% 39.2% 42.0% 0.93× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.3% 39.2% 36.6% 1.07× 2.55
4-6 goals 29.5% 30.3% 26.2% 1.15× 3.31
4-5 goals 25.1% 30.2% 22.9% 1.32× 3.31
5-6 goals 13.5% 14.9% 12.0% 1.24× 6.72
7+ goals 2.7% 2.6% 4.8% 0.53× 39.21
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården never behind 56.2% 62.5% 1.60
Brommapojkarna never behind 23.3% 24.4% 4.10
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.7% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.0% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.0% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 94.7% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 91.9% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 83.8% 82.4% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 78.5% 77.4% 79.6% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 67.8% 66.2% 69.2% 0.96× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 54.5% 52.5% 52.9% 0.99× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 45.5% 47.5% 47.1% 1.01× 2.11
Over 3.5 goals 32.2% 33.8% 30.8% 1.10× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 21.5% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 16.2% 17.6% 16.5% 1.06× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 8.1% 0.95× 12.93
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 5.3% 1.45× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.2% 97.2% 95.0% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.2% 92.5% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 80.7% 81.0% 80.7% 1.00× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 71.8% 72.6% 72.2% 1.00× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 58.5% 55.5% 60.5% 0.92× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 41.5% 44.5% 39.5% 1.13× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 28.2% 27.4% 27.8% 0.99× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 19.3% 19.0% 19.3% 0.98× 5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.8% 7.5% 8.9% 0.85× 13.26
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.8% 2.8% 5.0% 0.55× 36.14
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.5% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.0% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.1% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.9% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.0% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.5% 11.0% 9.10
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.3% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.1% 79.7% 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 50.5% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 49.5% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.9% 20.3% 4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 18.7% 17.2% 5.81
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna not to score in both halves 84.9% 84.4% 1.19
Djurgården not to score in both halves 64.6% 63.6% 1.57
Djurgården to score in both halves 35.4% 36.4% 2.75
Brommapojkarna to score in both halves 15.1% 15.6% 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.0% 54.0% 52.7% 1.02× 1.85
Only Djurgården scores 30.6% 33.3% 18.8% 1.77× 3.00
Only Brommapojkarna scores 9.2% 7.2% 23.7% 0.30× 13.89
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 5.3% 1.34× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.0% 22.6% 27.0% 0.84× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 22.4% 1.01× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.0% 17.4% 14.5% 1.20× 5.74
Exactly 1 goals 15.2% 17.4% 15.3% 1.14× 5.74
Exactly 5 goals 9.2% 7.6% 8.7% 0.88× 13.08
6 or more goals 7.1% 7.6% 8.1% 0.94× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 5.3% 1.43× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 50.5% 51.2% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.8% 33.4% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 18.7% 17.2% 5.82
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna not to win both halves 96.4% 97.2% 1.03
Djurgården not to win both halves 80.7% 84.1% 1.19
Djurgården to win both halves 19.3% 15.9% 6.28
Brommapojkarna to win both halves 3.6% 2.8% 35.74
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården to win either half 68.7% 67.9% 1.47
Brommapojkarna to win neither half 66.1% 67.8% 1.48
Brommapojkarna to win either half 33.9% 32.2% 3.11
Djurgården to win neither half 31.3% 32.1% 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Brommapojkarna not to win to nil 90.8% 92.0% 76.3% 1.21× 1.09
Djurgården not to win to nil 69.4% 69.7% 81.2% 0.86× 1.44
Djurgården to win to nil 30.6% 30.3% 18.8% 1.61× 3.30
Brommapojkarna to win to nil 9.2% 8.0% 23.7% 0.34× 12.53
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Djurgården by 1 23.6% 24.2% 20.4% 1.19× 4.14
Draw 23.6% 24.2% 22.9% 1.05× 4.14
Djurgården by 2 17.7% 16.9% 10.4% 1.62× 5.91
Djurgården by 3+ 15.8% 16.9% 6.4% 2.66× 5.91
Brommapojkarna by 1 12.3% 11.8% 17.3% 0.68× 8.48
Brommapojkarna by 2 5.1% 7.3% 12.5% 0.58× 13.79
Brommapojkarna by 3+ 1.9% 2.7% 11.5% 0.24× 37.02
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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