Burnley v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 18
On target
6 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 9
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.28 – +0.25
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
16.2%
Draw
23.9%
Aston Villa win
59.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Aston Villa have scored 16 from 16.6 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WDWLLDWWLL last 10
scored 16
from 16.6 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–2.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.10–1.89 | 1-1 10% | 57% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 1.72 xGAston Villa 1.75 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 5' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 7' |
 Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 7' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 10' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 10' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 15' |
Aston Villa |
Morgan Rogers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ross Barkley |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Ian Maatsen | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Loum Tchaouna |
| 32' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | John McGinn |
| 34' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ian Maatsen |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.01 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Matthew Cash |
| 37' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | John McGinn |
| 40' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Rogers |
| 41' |
Aston Villa |
Ross Barkley | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Goal | John McGinn |
| 44' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.47 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 54' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 55' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.29 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Emiliano Martinez |
| 58' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 62' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 62' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 62' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 65' |
Aston Villa |
Youri Tielemans | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Aston Villa |
John McGinn | 0.24 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 83' |
Burnley |
Zeki Amdouni | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 92' |
Aston Villa |
Emiliano Buendía | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Bailey |
| 94' |
Burnley |
Zeki Amdouni | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jacob Bruun Larsen |
| 95' |
Aston Villa |
Douglas Luiz | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Leon Bailey |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaidon Anthony AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.91 |
| Loum Tchaouna AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.37 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.46 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Max Weiss GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Pires DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.14 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.80 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 82 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu DMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Hannibal Mejbri AMC | 72 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.03 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Lyle Foster Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zeki Amdouni Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ollie Watkins FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Morgan Rogers AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.73 |
| Youri Tielemans DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 1.02 |
| Tyrone Mings DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Emiliano Martinez GK | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.56 |
| John McGinn AMR | 88 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0.35 | 0.74 | 1.06 |
| Ross Barkley AMC | 83 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.69 | 0.02 | 0.89 |
| Matthew Cash DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.03 |
| Ian Maatsen DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Victor Lindelöf DMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Emiliano Buendía Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lucas Digne Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.24 |
| Douglas Luiz Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Lamare Bogarde Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leon Bailey Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |