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Burnley v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 16 December 2023 · ENG-Premier League · 2324

Premier League xG

0–2
0.81 – 2.22 xG
Shots
14 – 9
On target
2 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 7
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.39 – 1.39
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -0.36
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.71.32.02.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Amadou Onana 18' — goalMichael Keane 24' — goal
Burnley 0.81 xGEverton 2.36 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dwight McNeil 9' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Dominic Calvert-Lewin 17' — Saved Shot (0.39 xG, Open Play)Amadou Onana 18' — Goal (0.53 xG, From Corner)Jacob Bruun Larsen 20' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jay Rodriguez 21' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Dwight McNeil 23' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Michael Keane 24' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Set Piece)Michael Keane 24' — Goal (0.50 xG, Set Piece)Jay Rodriguez 27' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Louis Beyer 27' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Sander Berge 47' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Zeki Amdouni 48' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Lyle Foster 49' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Wilson Odobert 49' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)James Garner 51' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Jacob Bruun Larsen 56' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Michael Keane 62' — Shot On Post (0.04 xG, From Corner)Zeki Amdouni 63' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Sander Berge 78' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Sander Berge 80' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lyle Foster 82' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Set Piece)Beto 89' — Saved Shot (0.51 xG, Open Play)Mike Trésor 91' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)
Burnley attacking right Everton attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
9' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.05 Open Play Missed Shot Jack Harrison
17' Everton Dominic Calvert-Lewin 0.39 Open Play Saved Shot Nathan Patterson
18' Everton Amadou Onana 0.53 From Corner Goal Dwight McNeil
20' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Zeki Amdouni
21' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Wilson Odobert
23' Everton Dwight McNeil 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot James Garner
24' Everton Michael Keane 0.28 Set Piece Right Foot Saved Shot James Tarkowski
24' Everton Michael Keane 0.50 Set Piece Right Foot Goal
27' Burnley Jay Rodriguez 0.13 From Corner Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
27' Burnley Louis Beyer 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
47' Burnley Sander Berge 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
48' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.06 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
49' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Hannes Delcroix
49' Burnley Wilson Odobert 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Sander Berge
51' Everton James Garner 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
56' Burnley Jacob Bruun Larsen 0.05 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
62' Everton Michael Keane 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Shot On Post
63' Burnley Zeki Amdouni 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Josh Brownhill
78' Burnley Sander Berge 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Jacob Bruun Larsen
80' Burnley Sander Berge 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Wilson Odobert
82' Burnley Lyle Foster 0.10 Set Piece Missed Shot Josh Brownhill
89' Everton Beto 0.51 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot James Garner
91' Burnley Mike Trésor 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Josh Brownhill

Players

Burnley

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Sander Berge MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.10 0.06 0.36
Zeki Amdouni FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.08 0.33
Wilson Odobert ML 90 0 0 1 2 0.06 0.13 0.21
Louis Beyer DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.21
James Trafford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Dara O'Shea DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Josh Brownhill MC 90 0 0 0 3 0.00 0.12 0.22
Vitinho DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.20
Jacob Bruun Larsen MR 86 0 0 2 3 0.13 0.20 0.25
Hannes Delcroix DL 74 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.17
Jay Rodriguez FW 50 0 0 2 0 0.23 0.00 0.18
Lyle Foster Sub 40 0 0 2 0 0.15 0.00 0.06
Ameen Al Dakhil Sub 16 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Benson Manuel Sub 4 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mike Trésor Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.01
Nathan Redmond Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Everton

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Michael Keane DC 90 1 0 3 0 0.82 0.00 0.00
Amadou Onana MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.53 0.00 0.00
Dwight McNeil DL 90 0 1 2 1 0.07 0.53 0.58
James Garner ML 90 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.53 0.53
Nathan Patterson DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.39 0.44
Jordan Pickford GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
James Tarkowski DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.28 0.51
Jack Harrison MR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.44
Ben Godfrey DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW 86 0 0 1 0 0.39 0.00 0.39
Abdoulaye Doucouré MC 50 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Lewis Dobbin Sub 40 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Beto Sub 4 0 0 1 0 0.51 0.00 0.51
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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