Burnley v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 7 February 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
11 – 3
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-1.89 – +0.88
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
31.7%
Draw
28.2%
West Ham United win
40.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.51 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.63 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 1.89 xGWest Ham United 1.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mateus Fernandes |
| 14' |
 Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 25' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.38 | Open Play | — | Goal | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 30' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 30' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 32' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 34' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 38' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 39' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 48' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 48' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 50' |
Burnley |
Josh Laurent | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxime Estève |
| 50' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Bashir Humphreys |
| 54' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 56' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | El Hadji Malick Diouf |
| 58' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 64' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 67' |
Burnley |
Bashir Humphreys | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 79' |
West Ham United |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo |
| 89' |
Burnley |
Armando Broja | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
West Ham United |
Axel Disasi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hannibal Mejbri MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.26 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.56 | 0.22 |
| Maxime Estève DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.15 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Martin Dubravka GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Pires DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.39 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 0.84 |
| Marcus Edwards MR | 71 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.77 | 0.00 | 0.97 |
| Jaidon Anthony ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.22 |
| Florentino Luís MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Josh Laurent Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Loum Tchaouna Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Lyle Foster Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Armando Broja Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.11 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.61 | 1.11 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.03 |
| Mads Hermansen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 83 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| El Hadji Malick Diouf DL | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| Callum Wilson AMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Freddie Potts Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Oliver Scarles Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |