Burnley v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 16
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.36 – 1.56
Goals − xG
-0.28 – -1.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Burnley win
38.0%
Draw
29.5%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
32.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Burnley are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDLLLLLDLD last 10
scored 6
from 10.4 xG
conceded 19
from 20.9 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.40–1.28 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.37–1.25 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Burnley 1.28 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 2.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Burnley attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 4' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Adam Armstrong | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 9' |
 Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 13' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 16' |
Burnley |
Chimuanya Ugochukwu | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 27' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 30' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Angel Gomes |
| 33' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Yerson Mosquera | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 34' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Ladislav Krejcí | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 34' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Santiago Bueno | 0.63 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ladislav Krejcí |
| 44' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 45' |
Burnley |
Loum Tchaouna | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kyle Walker |
| 46' |
Burnley |
Zian Flemming | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Loum Tchaouna |
| 50' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hee-Chan Hwang | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Bueno |
| 50' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
Burnley |
Florentino Luís | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chimuanya Ugochukwu |
| 53' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
André | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
| 59' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florentino Luís |
| 61' |
Burnley |
Hannibal Mejbri | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Max Weiss |
| 61' |
Burnley |
Jaidon Anthony | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hannibal Mejbri |
| 62' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 75' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.34 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | James Ward-Prowse |
| 76' |
Burnley |
Marcus Edwards | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jaidon Anthony |
| 80' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Tolu Arokodare | 0.54 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 85' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Hugo Bueno | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Mané |
| 87' |
Burnley |
Jacob Bruun Larsen | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Pires |
| 88' |
Burnley |
Lucas Pires | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 88' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Mateus Mané | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 90' |
Burnley |
Ashley Barnes | 0.31 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marcus Edwards |
| 91' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Pedro Lima | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hee-Chan Hwang |
Players
Burnley
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Pires DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.07 | 0.49 |
| Zian Flemming FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jaidon Anthony AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.55 |
| Florentino Luís DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.29 |
| Kyle Walker DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.24 |
| Bashir Humphreys DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Axel Tuanzebe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Max Weiss GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.24 |
| Chimuanya Ugochukwu DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.11 |
| Loum Tchaouna AMR | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.21 |
| Hannibal Mejbri AMC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.13 | 0.38 |
| Zeki Amdouni Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marcus Edwards Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.33 | 0.41 |
| James Ward-Prowse Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.45 |
| Ashley Barnes Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Bueno DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Mateus Mané AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0.23 | 0.76 | 0.82 |
| Yerson Mosquera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.40 | 1.10 |
| André MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Rodrigo Gomes DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| José Sá GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 84 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Møller Wolfe DML | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ladislav Krejcí DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.63 | 0.00 |
| Angel Gomes MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.16 |
| Tolu Arokodare Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Toti Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hugo Bueno Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jerome Abbey Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pedro Lima Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |