Cagliari v AC Milan — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 2 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 11
On target
1 – 4
Shots in box
4 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.31 – +0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
15.9%
Draw
25.9%
AC Milan win
58.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
AC Milan are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLWLWWD last 10
scored 11
from 14.0 xG
conceded 13
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.88–1.83 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.20–1.90 | 1-1 10% | 60% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.31 xGAC Milan 0.89 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
AC Milan attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 1' |
Cagliari |
Marco Palestra | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 2' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 16' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rafael Leão |
| 27' |
AC Milan |
Koni de Winter | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 28' |
AC Milan |
Alexis Saelemaekers | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 31' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 40' |
Cagliari |
Luca Mazzitelli | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 41' |
AC Milan |
Youssouf Fofana | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Modric |
| 46' |
AC Milan |
Adrien Rabiot | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Luka Modric |
| 48' |
AC Milan |
Ruben Loftus-Cheek | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Alexis Saelemaekers |
| 49' |
AC Milan |
Rafael Leão | 0.29 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Adrien Rabiot |
| 58' |
AC Milan |
Davide Bartesaghi | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Semih Kiliçsoy | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marco Palestra |
| 86' |
AC Milan |
Christian Pulisic | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Niclas Füllkrug |
| 89' |
AC Milan |
Luka Modric | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
AC Milan
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Adrien Rabiot MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.29 | 0.49 |
| Luka Modric MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Davide Bartesaghi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.40 |
| Alexis Saelemaekers DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.23 | 0.63 |
| Fikayo Tomori DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mike Maignan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Estupiñán DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Rafael Leão FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.08 | 0.47 |
| Youssouf Fofana MC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Samuele Ricci Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Niclas Füllkrug Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Christian Pulisic Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Matteo Gabbia Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.17 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Luca Mazzitelli MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.10 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.11 |
| Adam Obert DML | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nicolò Cavuoti Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |