Cagliari v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 27 April 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 12
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.27 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
1.27 – 0.67
Goals − xG
+0.58 – +0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
19.9%
Draw
24.0%
Atalanta win
56.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.82–1.58 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.18–1.96 | 1-1 10% | 61% | 60% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 2.42 xGAtalanta 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ndary Adopo |
| 7' |
Cagliari |
Alessandro Deiola | 0.56 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
Cagliari |
Paul Mendy | 0.58 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 22' |
 Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ndary Adopo |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 39' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.47 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Giorgio Scalvini |
| 46' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.47 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.20 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Deiola |
| 53' |
Cagliari |
Zé Pedro | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 56' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sulemana |
| 60' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Atalanta |
Mario Pasalic | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Odilon Kossounou |
| 81' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.45 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Éderson |
| 82' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gianluca Scamacca |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 88' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Berat Gjimshiti | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Atalanta |
Giacomo Raspadori | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.48 | 0.48 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
| Juan Rodríguez DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.20 | 0.20 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Paul Mendy FW | 51 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 31 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Marco Palestra Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sulemana Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Alberto Dossena Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrea Belotti Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gianluca Scamacca FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.53 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Giacomo Raspadori AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.40 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Giorgio Scalvini DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 0.55 |
| Charles De Ketelaere AMC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sead Kolasinac DC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Raoul Bellanova DMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Davide Zappacosta DML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Nikola Krstovic Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Nicola Zalewski Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Odilon Kossounou Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.45 |
| Éderson Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.49 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.49 |