Cagliari v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 10
On target
3 – 7
Shots in box
1 – 4
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.12 – 0.60
Goals − xG
-0.37 – +0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
21.7%
Draw
26.8%
Bologna win
51.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.97–1.62 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.00–1.75 | 0-1 11% | 52% | 52% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.37 xGBologna 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20' |
 Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 29' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 29' |
Bologna |
Lewis Ferguson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
| 30' |
Bologna |
Emil Holm | 0.55 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Jens Odgaard |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Federico Bernardeschi | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 41' |
 Cagliari |
Mattia Felici | 0.25 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matteo Prati |
| 45' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 49' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 74' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 77' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Luperto | 0.05 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Gennaro Borrelli |
| 79' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Benjamín Domínguez |
| 83' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 92' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewis Ferguson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.57 | 0.06 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.43 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Emil Holm DR | 89 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| Federico Bernardeschi AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Riccardo Orsolini Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Charalampos Lykogiannis Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Benjamín Domínguez Sub | 12 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Palestra MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia Felici ML | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Zito Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zé Pedro Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Semih Kiliçsoy Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |