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Cagliari v Como — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 26 August 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

1–1
1.04 – 2.09 xG
Shots
11 – 14
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.74
Goals − xG
-0.04 – -1.12
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.40'15'30'45'60'75'90'Roberto Piccoli 43' — goalPatrick Cutrone 52' — goal
Cagliari 1.04 xGComo 2.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Gabriel Strefezza 3' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moreno 10' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 10' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Zito 12' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 23' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Andrea Belotti 31' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 31' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Strefezza 32' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Paulo Azzi 33' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Roberto Piccoli 43' — Goal (0.54 xG, Open Play)Paulo Azzi 45' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Yerry Mina 47' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Alberto Dossena 52' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Patrick Cutrone 52' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 52' — Goal (0.66 xG, From Corner)Alessandro Deiola 59' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Ndary Adopo 65' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Augello 67' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Nico Paz 69' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Patrick Cutrone 69' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gianluca Lapadula 77' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Strefezza 78' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Razvan Marin 85' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Alberto Cerri 90' — Missed Shot (0.58 xG, Open Play)Alberto Cerri 92' — Missed Shot (0.49 xG, Open Play)
Cagliari attacking right Como attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
3' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alberto Moreno
10' Como Alberto Moreno 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
10' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
12' Cagliari Zito 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Paulo Azzi
23' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Gabriele Zappa
31' Como Andrea Belotti 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Patrick Cutrone
31' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
32' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Luca Mazzitelli
33' Cagliari Paulo Azzi 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Zito
43' Cagliari Roberto Piccoli 0.54 Open Play Goal Sebastiano Luperto
45' Cagliari Paulo Azzi 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
47' Cagliari Yerry Mina 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Tommaso Augello
52' Como Alberto Dossena 0.05 From Corner Missed Shot Gabriel Strefezza
52' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Máximo Perrone
52' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.66 From Corner Right Foot Goal Alberto Dossena
59' Cagliari Alessandro Deiola 0.04 Open Play Blocked Shot Paulo Azzi
65' Cagliari Ndary Adopo 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
67' Cagliari Tommaso Augello 0.04 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
69' Como Nico Paz 0.03 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Gabriel Strefezza
69' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
77' Cagliari Gianluca Lapadula 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Razvan Marin
78' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alberto Moreno
85' Cagliari Razvan Marin 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
90' Como Alberto Cerri 0.58 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
92' Como Alberto Cerri 0.49 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nico Paz

Players

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Paulo Azzi DMR 90 0 0 2 2 0.14 0.12 0.80
Alessandro Deiola MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.63
Razvan Marin MC 90 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.06 0.12
Gabriele Zappa DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.09
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.54 0.58
Roberto Piccoli FW 84 1 0 2 0 0.59 0.00 0.59
Tommaso Augello DML 84 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.02 0.64
Zito FW 70 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.04 0.11
Yerry Mina DC 70 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.04
Matteo Prati MC 63 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Ndary Adopo Sub 27 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Gianluca Lapadula Sub 20 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
José Luis Palomino Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adam Obert Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Pavoletti Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Patrick Cutrone FW 90 1 0 4 1 0.77 0.04 0.19
Gabriel Strefezza AMC 90 0 0 3 4 0.08 0.16 0.16
Alberto Dossena DC 90 0 1 1 1 0.05 0.66 0.09
Alberto Moreno DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.06 0.10
Alessio Iovine DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
José Reina GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Federico Barba DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Luca Mazzitelli DMC 72 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.04
Lucas Da Cunha AMC 61 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.10
Andrea Belotti FW 61 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.04
Matthias Braunöder DMC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Máximo Perrone Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.07
Alberto Cerri Sub 29 0 0 2 0 1.07 0.00 1.07
Nico Paz Sub 29 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.49 0.53
Sergi Roberto Sub 18 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Edoardo Goldaniga Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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