Cagliari v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 7 March 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 8
On target
1 – 2
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.05 – 0.77
Goals − xG
+0.19 – -0.43
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
31.7%
Draw
33.4%
Genoa win
34.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.13–1.20 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.81 xGGenoa 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11' |
 Genoa |
Fabio Miretti | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Maxwel Cornet |
| 14' |
 Cagliari |
Florinel Coman | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 15' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 17' |
Cagliari |
Nicolas Viola | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Roberto Piccoli |
| 17' |
Genoa |
Koni de Winter | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 24' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Obert |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 37' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 45' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.54 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jeff Ekhator |
| 46' |
Genoa |
Maxwel Cornet | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Caleb Ekuban |
| 58' |
Genoa |
Koni de Winter | 0.18 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 69' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.02 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Genoa |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fabio Miretti |
| 79' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Leonardo Pavoletti |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 83' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 88' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriele Zappa |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koni de Winter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Fabio Miretti AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.66 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Aarón Martín DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.56 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Frendrup DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Maxwel Cornet AML | 77 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.12 | 0.56 |
| Jeff Ekhator AMR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.54 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban FW | 54 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.43 | 0.56 |
| Milan Badelj DMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DR | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Zanoli Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Andrea Pinamonti Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alan Matturro Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.41 | 0.72 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Nadir Zortea AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| Alessandro Deiola DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Adam Obert DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.44 |
| Nicolas Viola AMC | 63 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Antoine Makoumbou DMC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Augello Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Florinel Coman AML | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ndary Adopo Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |