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Cagliari v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 28 December 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–3
0.30 – 3.17 xG
Shots
5 – 20
On target
1 – 5
Shots in box
3 – 13
xG per shot
0.06 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.15 – 2.01
Goals − xG
-0.30 – -0.19
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.91.82.73.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Alessandro Bastoni 52' — goalLautaro Martínez 70' — goalHakan Calhanoglu 77' — goal
Cagliari 0.30 xGInternazionale 3.19 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Marcus Thuram 2' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Stefan de Vrij 3' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Gianluca Gaetano 11' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Henrikh Mkhitaryan 13' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Ndary Adopo 16' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Federico Dimarco 17' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Augello 24' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 27' — Missed Shot (0.67 xG, Open Play)Ndary Adopo 38' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Nicolò Barella 41' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Federico Dimarco 46' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Direct Freekick)Nicolò Barella 49' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Stefan de Vrij 49' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Stefan de Vrij 49' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Yann Bisseck 49' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, From Corner)Alessandro Bastoni 52' — Goal (0.04 xG, Set Piece)Lautaro Martínez 55' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 60' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, From Corner)Yann Bisseck 62' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 69' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Lautaro Martínez 70' — Goal (0.53 xG, From Corner)Lautaro Martínez 76' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Open Play)Stefan de Vrij 76' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Hakan Calhanoglu 77' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Mattia Felici 83' — Saved Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)
Cagliari attacking right Internazionale attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
2' Internazionale Marcus Thuram 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Lautaro Martínez
3' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.08 From Corner Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
11' Cagliari Gianluca Gaetano 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
13' Internazionale Henrikh Mkhitaryan 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Marcus Thuram
16' Cagliari Ndary Adopo 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Gianluca Gaetano
17' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
24' Cagliari Tommaso Augello 0.02 Open Play Missed Shot Gabriele Zappa
27' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.67 Open Play Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
38' Cagliari Ndary Adopo 0.13 From Corner Blocked Shot Gianluca Gaetano
41' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot
46' Internazionale Federico Dimarco 0.06 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
49' Internazionale Nicolò Barella 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
49' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.08 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Nicolò Barella
49' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.10 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
49' Internazionale Yann Bisseck 0.13 From Corner Left Foot Missed Shot
52' Internazionale Alessandro Bastoni 0.04 Set Piece Goal Nicolò Barella
55' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Henrikh Mkhitaryan
60' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.07 From Corner Missed Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
62' Internazionale Yann Bisseck 0.09 Open Play Missed Shot Alessandro Bastoni
69' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Nicolò Barella
70' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.53 From Corner Left Foot Goal Nicolò Barella
76' Internazionale Lautaro Martínez 0.15 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Denzel Dumfries
76' Internazionale Stefan de Vrij 0.11 From Corner Blocked Shot Hakan Calhanoglu
77' Internazionale Hakan Calhanoglu 0.76 Right Foot Goal
83' Cagliari Mattia Felici 0.11 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Ndary Adopo

Players

Internazionale

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lautaro Martínez FW 90 1 0 6 1 1.55 0.02 1.06
Stefan de Vrij DC 90 0 0 4 0 0.37 0.00 0.15
Yann Bisseck DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.22 0.00 0.34
Alessandro Bastoni DC 90 1 0 1 1 0.04 0.09 0.24
Denzel Dumfries MR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.15 0.82
Yann Sommer GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Hakan Calhanoglu DMC 83 1 0 1 4 0.76 0.93 0.82
Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC 83 0 0 1 2 0.05 0.17 0.46
Marcus Thuram FW 82 0 0 1 1 0.02 0.05 0.38
Federico Dimarco ML 76 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.26
Nicolò Barella MC 76 0 2 2 4 0.04 0.68 0.22
Piotr Zielinski Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Carlos Augusto Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mehdi Taremi Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Kristjan Asllani Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davide Frattesi Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cagliari

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Ndary Adopo DMC 90 0 0 2 1 0.16 0.11 0.15
Tommaso Augello AML 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Simone Scuffet GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nadir Zortea AMR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Gabriele Zappa DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.02
Sebastiano Luperto DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Roberto Piccoli FW 87 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Antoine Makoumbou DMC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Gianluca Gaetano AMC 62 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.16 0.02
Adam Obert DL 62 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yerry Mina DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Mateusz Wieteska Sub 41 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Leonardo Pavoletti Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Razvan Marin Sub 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nicolas Viola Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.11
Mattia Felici Sub 3 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.11
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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