Cagliari v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 27 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 20
On target
0 – 5
Shots in box
5 – 15
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.20
Set-piece xG
0.32 – 1.24
Goals − xG
-0.48 – -1.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cagliari win
20.1%
Draw
25.7%
Internazionale win
54.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Internazionale are finishing sharply above their chances — 7.5 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWWDWWDDWW last 10
scored 28
from 20.5 xG
conceded 12
from 12.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.00–1.77 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.12–2.19 | 1-2 10% | 64% | 60% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cagliari 0.48 xGInternazionale 3.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cagliari attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.44 | Open Play | — | Goal | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luis Henrique |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 25' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Carlos Augusto |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Alessandro Bastoni |
| 26' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.51 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 37' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 46' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Nicolò Barella |
| 53' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Manuel Akanji |
| 54' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nicolò Barella |
| 56' |
Internazionale |
Marcus Thuram | 0.48 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 61' |
 Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 66' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 69' |
Cagliari |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 70' |
Internazionale |
Federico Dimarco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Davide Frattesi |
| 72' |
Cagliari |
Michael Folorunsho | 0.27 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 76' |
Internazionale |
Manuel Akanji | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Lautaro Martínez |
| 78' |
Internazionale |
Lautaro Martínez | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 79' |
Cagliari |
Gennaro Borrelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 80' |
Internazionale |
Davide Frattesi | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 81' |
Internazionale |
Francesco Pio Esposito | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Federico Dimarco |
| 83' |
Cagliari |
Ndary Adopo | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Mattia Felici |
| 84' |
Internazionale |
Henrikh Mkhitaryan | 0.63 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Lautaro Martínez |
| 85' |
Cagliari |
Gianluca Gaetano | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Riyad Idrissi |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lautaro Martínez FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 1.05 | 1.24 | 2.35 |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.89 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.12 | 0.78 |
| Manuel Akanji DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.75 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.38 |
| Josep Martínez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Alessandro Bastoni DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.90 |
| Luis Henrique DMR | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.15 |
| Marcus Thuram FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Nicolò Barella MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.87 |
| Carlos Augusto DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.56 |
| Federico Dimarco Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 1.03 | 0.71 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito Sub | 23 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Davide Frattesi Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| Marco Palestra DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Michael Folorunsho MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Adam Obert DML | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Zé Pedro DC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Deiola MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Prati Sub | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Andrea Belotti FW | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Mattia Felici Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.11 |
| Gennaro Borrelli Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Riyad Idrissi Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |