Carrarese v Modena — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 October 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCarrarese win
33.3%
model 33.8%
Draw
33.3%
model 31.7%
Modena win
33.3%
model 34.5%
Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (8,220 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 14.9%
- 0-0 11.5%
- 0-1 9.7%
- 1-0 9.6%
- 1-2 7.7%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 41.0% | Under 2.5 | 59.0% |
| BTTS yes | 48.9% | BTTS no | 51.1% |
| Carrarese 1+ | 68.5% | Carrarese 2+ | 32.1% |
| Modena 1+ | 68.9% | Modena 2+ | 32.6% |
Expected goals 1.15 – 1.17. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
AI confidence
48/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
95%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
Positive factors
- Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1410.
- Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Modena have an estimated 33.3% win probability, against 33.3% for Carrarese and 33.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.15 for Carrarese and 1.17 for Modena.
Why Carrarese
Nothing in the data singles out Carrarese.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 33.3%. A combined 2.32 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.15 to 1.17. Draws run at 32% in this competition.
Why Modena can win
Modena carry the stronger rating, 1499 Elo against 1410. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Carrarese, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Modena, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Carrarese: 47% possession, 15.2 shots a match, 15.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Modena: 47% possession, 9.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Modena are the model's most likely outcome at 33.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.9%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg | 1.01–1.19 | 1-1 15% | 38% | 46% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it.
Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits
from what that selection normally does in this league.
To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the
Radar.
All markets
Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.
1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena to win | 38.3% | 36.4% | 25.4% | 1.43× | 2.75 |
| Draw | 32.4% | 30.4% | 32.0% | 0.95× | 3.29 |
| Carrarese to win | 29.3% | 27.9% | 42.7% | 0.65× | 3.59 |
1X2 & GG/NG 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena & not both score | 23.5% | 21.9% | 13.3% | 1.65× | 4.57 |
| Draw & both teams score | 19.7% | 17.9% | 23.0% | 0.78× | 5.58 |
| Carrarese & not both score | 17.6% | 17.9% | 24.0% | 0.75× | 5.58 |
| Modena & both teams score | 14.8% | 13.3% | 12.3% | 1.08× | 7.54 |
| Draw & not both score | 12.7% | 13.3% | 9.1% | 1.45× | 7.54 |
| Carrarese & both teams score | 11.7% | 13.3% | 18.8% | 0.71× | 7.55 |
1X2 & Over/Under 18
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena & under 3.5 | 30.3% | 30.9% | 19.9% | 1.55× | 3.24 |
| Draw & under 2.5 | 27.8% | 26.0% | 23.8% | 1.09× | 3.84 |
| Draw & under 3.5 | 27.8% | 26.0% | 23.8% | 1.09× | 3.84 |
| Modena & over 1.5 | 26.9% | 26.0% | 18.8% | 1.39× | 3.84 |
| Carrarese & under 3.5 | 23.7% | 21.7% | 32.0% | 0.68× | 4.62 |
| Carrarese & over 1.5 | 19.9% | 18.0% | 31.7% | 0.57× | 5.56 |
| Draw & over 1.5 | 19.7% | 18.0% | 23.0% | 0.78× | 5.56 |
| Modena & over 2.5 | 19.1% | 18.0% | 15.0% | 1.20× | 5.56 |
| Modena & under 2.5 | 19.2% | 18.0% | 10.5% | 1.71× | 5.56 |
| Carrarese & under 2.5 | 15.1% | 18.0% | 18.5% | 0.97× | 5.56 |
| Carrarese & over 2.5 | 14.2% | 12.9% | 24.3% | 0.53× | 7.77 |
| Draw & under 1.5 | 12.7% | 12.9% | 9.1% | 1.41× | 7.77 |
| Modena & under 1.5 | 11.4% | 12.9% | 6.8% | 1.90× | 7.77 |
| Carrarese & under 1.5 | 9.4% | 7.9% | 11.1% | 0.71× | 12.69 |
| Modena & over 3.5 | 8.0% | 7.9% | 5.6% | 1.40× | 12.70 |
| Carrarese & over 3.5 | 5.6% | 7.9% | 10.8% | 0.73× | 12.70 |
| Draw & over 2.5 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 0.57× | 20.93 |
| Draw & over 3.5 | 4.6% | 4.8% | 8.4% | 0.57× | 20.93 |
1X2 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (1UP) | 52.9% | 52.7% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Carrarese (1UP) | 44.8% | 39.6% | — | — | 2.53 |
1X2 2UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (2UP) | 38.3% | 37.2% | — | — | 2.69 |
| Carrarese (2UP) | 29.3% | 25.0% | — | — | 4.00 |
2nd half 1X2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half drawn | 41.2% | 41.0% | — | — | 2.44 |
| Modena to win 2nd half | 33.7% | 34.5% | — | — | 2.90 |
| Carrarese to win 2nd half | 25.1% | 26.2% | — | — | 3.82 |
Asian handicap 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (+2.5) | 96.7% | 96.3% | 93.2% | 1.03× | 1.04 |
| Modena (+1.5) | 88.4% | 88.5% | 80.5% | 1.10× | 1.13 |
| Modena (+0.5) | 70.7% | 73.7% | 57.3% | 1.29× | 1.36 |
| Carrarese (+0.5) | 61.7% | 62.9% | 74.6% | 0.84× | 1.59 |
| Modena (-0.5) | 38.3% | 37.1% | 25.4% | 1.46× | 2.70 |
| Carrarese (-0.5) | 29.3% | 26.3% | 42.7% | 0.62× | 3.80 |
| Carrarese (-1.5) | 11.6% | 11.5% | 19.5% | 0.59× | 8.71 |
| Carrarese (-2.5) | 3.3% | 3.7% | 6.8% | 0.55× | 26.86 |
Away clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena to concede | 63.7% | 67.3% | 77.7% | 0.87× | 1.49 |
| Modena clean sheet | 36.3% | 32.7% | 22.3% | 1.47× | 3.06 |
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena clean sheet in 1st half | 64.7% | 65.1% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Modena to concede in 1st half | 35.3% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.86 |
Away corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena under 6.5 corners | 78.9% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Modena over 2.5 corners | 77.9% | 75.9% | — | — | 1.32 |
| Modena under 5.5 corners | 67.9% | 67.5% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Modena over 3.5 corners | 62.2% | 61.8% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Modena under 4.5 corners | 53.8% | 53.1% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Modena over 4.5 corners | 46.2% | 46.9% | — | — | 2.13 |
| Modena under 3.5 corners | 37.8% | 38.2% | — | — | 2.62 |
| Modena over 5.5 corners | 32.1% | 32.5% | — | — | 3.08 |
| Modena under 2.5 corners | 22.1% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
| Modena over 6.5 corners | 21.1% | 24.1% | — | — | 4.16 |
Away goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena under 3.5 goals | 96.7% | 97.5% | 98.2% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Modena under 2.5 goals | 88.1% | 87.9% | 90.9% | 0.97× | 1.14 |
| Modena over 0.5 goals | 69.7% | 68.0% | 67.0% | 1.02× | 1.47 |
| Modena under 1.5 goals | 66.5% | 67.9% | 69.3% | 0.98× | 1.47 |
| Modena over 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 32.1% | 30.7% | 1.05× | 3.12 |
| Modena under 0.5 goals | 30.3% | 32.0% | 33.0% | 0.97× | 3.12 |
| Modena over 2.5 goals | 11.9% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 1.33× | 8.26 |
| Modena over 3.5 goals | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.8% | 1.40× | 40.70 |
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena under 1.5 in 1st half | 91.7% | 94.1% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Modena under 0.5 in 1st half | 62.0% | 64.1% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Modena over 0.5 in 1st half | 38.0% | 35.9% | — | — | 2.79 |
| Modena over 1.5 in 1st half | 8.3% | 5.9% | — | — | 17.08 |
Away no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw (away no bet) | 52.5% | 51.2% | 42.9% | 1.19× | 1.95 |
| Carrarese (away no bet) | 47.5% | 48.8% | 57.1% | 0.85× | 2.05 |
Away Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena even goals | 54.6% | 52.8% | 55.6% | 0.95× | 1.89 |
| Modena odd goals | 45.4% | 47.2% | 44.4% | 1.06× | 2.12 |
Both halves O1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves over 1.5 | 91.4% | 92.4% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Both halves over 1.5 goals | 8.6% | 7.6% | — | — | 13.08 |
Both halves U1.5 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both halves under 1.5 | 52.6% | 50.0% | — | — | 2.00 |
| Both halves under 1.5 goals | 47.4% | 50.0% | — | — | 2.00 |
Consecutive goals 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to score 2+ in a row | 44.8% | 38.5% | — | — | 2.60 |
| Modena to score 2+ in a row | 27.4% | 25.0% | — | — | 3.99 |
| Carrarese to score 2+ in a row | 21.0% | 19.5% | — | — | 5.13 |
| Either team to score 3+ in a row | 13.2% | 12.2% | — | — | 8.20 |
| Modena to score 3+ in a row | 8.1% | 5.7% | — | — | 17.63 |
| Carrarese to score 3+ in a row | 5.2% | 5.6% | — | — | 17.87 |
Corner handicap 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese corners (+3.5) | 88.9% | 84.5% | — | — | 1.18 |
| Carrarese corners (+2.5) | 83.2% | 79.7% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Carrarese corners (+1.5) | 75.7% | 74.9% | — | — | 1.34 |
| Modena corners (+3.5) | 73.1% | 70.7% | — | — | 1.41 |
| Modena corners (+2.5) | 64.0% | 61.9% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Modena corners (+1.5) | 53.9% | 52.5% | — | — | 1.91 |
| Carrarese corners (-1.5) | 46.1% | 47.5% | — | — | 2.10 |
| Carrarese corners (-2.5) | 36.0% | 38.1% | — | — | 2.63 |
| Carrarese corners (-3.5) | 26.9% | 29.3% | — | — | 3.42 |
| Modena corners (-1.5) | 24.3% | 25.1% | — | — | 3.98 |
| Modena corners (-2.5) | 16.8% | 20.3% | — | — | 4.94 |
| Modena corners (-3.5) | 11.1% | 15.5% | — | — | 6.46 |
Corner range 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12+ corners | 35.7% | 33.7% | — | — | 2.97 |
| 0-8 corners | 34.5% | 33.2% | — | — | 3.01 |
| 9-11 corners | 29.8% | 31.2% | — | — | 3.20 |
Corners O/U 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 7.5 corners | 75.2% | 76.5% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Under 12.5 corners | 72.6% | 72.6% | — | — | 1.38 |
| Over 8.5 corners | 65.5% | 67.7% | — | — | 1.48 |
| Under 11.5 corners | 64.3% | 63.4% | — | — | 1.58 |
| Over 9.5 corners | 55.3% | 57.8% | — | — | 1.73 |
| Under 10.5 corners | 54.8% | 53.3% | — | — | 1.88 |
| Over 10.5 corners | 45.2% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Under 9.5 corners | 44.7% | 42.3% | — | — | 2.37 |
| Over 11.5 corners | 35.7% | 36.6% | — | — | 2.73 |
| Under 8.5 corners | 34.5% | 32.3% | — | — | 3.09 |
| Over 12.5 corners | 27.4% | 27.4% | — | — | 3.66 |
| Under 7.5 corners | 24.8% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
Corners Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of corners | 50.0% | 50.2% | — | — | 1.99 |
| Even number of corners | 50.0% | 49.8% | — | — | 2.01 |
Correct score 26
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | 15.0% | 13.7% | 14.8% | 0.93× | 7.28 |
| 0-0 | 12.7% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 1.25× | 8.73 |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | 11.5% | 6.8% | 1.69× | 8.73 |
| 1-0 | 9.4% | 7.4% | 11.1% | 0.67× | 13.48 |
| 0-2 | 7.8% | 7.4% | 3.9% | 1.91× | 13.48 |
| 1-2 | 7.9% | 7.4% | 7.4% | 1.00× | 13.48 |
| 2-1 | 6.7% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.76× | 13.48 |
| 2-0 | 5.7% | 7.4% | 7.5% | 0.99× | 13.48 |
| 0-3 | 3.1% | 1.7% | 2.3% | 0.76× | 58.47 |
| 0-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.28× | 58.48 |
| 1-3 | 3.2% | 1.7% | 2.6% | 0.65× | 58.47 |
| 1-4 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.83× | 58.48 |
| 2-2 | 4.0% | 1.7% | 7.4% | 0.23× | 58.47 |
| 2-3 | 1.6% | 1.7% | 1.5% | 1.14× | 58.48 |
| 2-4 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.66× | 58.49 |
| 3-0 | 1.9% | 1.7% | 4.0% | 0.43× | 58.48 |
| 3-1 | 2.3% | 1.7% | 4.4% | 0.39× | 58.48 |
| 3-2 | 1.4% | 1.7% | 2.5% | 0.68× | 58.48 |
| 3-3 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.52× | 58.49 |
| 3-4 | 0.2% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 4.55× | 58.49 |
| 4-0 | 0.5% | 1.7% | 1.1% | 1.52× | 58.49 |
| 4-1 | 0.6% | 1.7% | 0.8% | 2.28× | 58.49 |
| 4-2 | 0.3% | 1.7% | 1.0% | 1.71× | 58.49 |
| 4-3 | 0.1% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 6.83× | 58.49 |
| 4-4 | 0.0% | 1.7% | 0.1% | 13.66× | 58.49 |
| Any other score | 1.1% | 1.7% | 2.1% | 0.80× | 58.48 |
DNB half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena leading at HT (DNB) | 52.9% | 55.9% | — | — | 1.79 |
| Carrarese leading at HT (DNB) | 47.2% | 44.1% | — | — | 2.27 |
Double chance 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena or draw (X2) | 70.7% | 72.1% | 57.3% | 1.26× | 1.39 |
| Carrarese or Modena (12) | 67.6% | 69.6% | 68.0% | 1.02× | 1.44 |
| Carrarese or draw (1X) | 61.7% | 63.6% | 74.6% | 0.85× | 1.57 |
Double chance 1HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena or draw at HT | 76.2% | 79.8% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Carrarese or draw at HT | 73.3% | 74.4% | — | — | 1.35 |
| Carrarese or Modena at HT | 50.5% | 47.4% | — | — | 2.11 |
Double chance 1UP 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena or draw (1UP) | 70.7% | 80.0% | — | — | 1.25 |
| Carrarese or draw (1UP) | 61.7% | 71.6% | — | — | 1.40 |
Double chance 2HT 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena or draw in 2nd half | 74.9% | 73.8% | — | — | 1.36 |
| Carrarese or draw in 2nd half | 66.3% | 65.5% | — | — | 1.53 |
| Carrarese or Modena in 2nd half | 58.8% | 59.0% | — | — | 1.69 |
Draw either half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half drawn | 68.5% | 69.5% | — | — | 1.44 |
| Neither half drawn | 31.5% | 30.5% | — | — | 3.28 |
Draw no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (DNB) | 56.7% | 58.2% | 37.3% | 1.56× | 1.72 |
| Carrarese (DNB) | 43.3% | 41.8% | 62.7% | 0.67× | 2.39 |
First goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena to score first | 47.2% | 45.5% | — | — | 2.20 |
| Carrarese to score first | 40.1% | 41.6% | — | — | 2.40 |
| No goal scored | 12.7% | 10.2% | — | — | 9.81 |
GG/NG 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score | 53.8% | 51.4% | 46.2% | 1.11× | 1.95 |
| Both teams to score | 46.2% | 48.6% | 53.8% | 0.90× | 2.06 |
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both score & under 2.5 | 47.0% | 44.3% | 37.9% | 1.17× | 2.26 |
| Both score & over 2.5 | 31.1% | 34.3% | 39.2% | 0.87× | 2.92 |
| Both score & under 2.5 | 15.0% | 21.7% | 14.8% | 1.47× | 4.61 |
| Not both score & over 2.5 | 6.8% | 8.4% | 8.4% | 1.00× | 11.96 |
GG/NG 2+ 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both teams to score 2+ | 91.0% | 89.1% | 86.0% | 1.04× | 1.12 |
| Both teams to score 2+ | 9.0% | 10.9% | 14.0% | 0.78× | 9.17 |
GG/NG 2nd half 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score in 2nd half | 77.0% | 75.2% | — | — | 1.33 |
| Both teams to score in 2nd half | 23.0% | 24.8% | — | — | 4.04 |
GG/NG by half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neither half both score | 66.2% | 62.0% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Both score 2nd half only | 20.0% | 20.7% | — | — | 4.83 |
| Both score 1st half only | 10.7% | 10.7% | — | — | 9.33 |
| Both score in both halves | 3.0% | 5.0% | — | — | 20.10 |
GG/NG half time 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not both to score by HT | 86.3% | 85.9% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Both teams to score by HT | 13.7% | 14.1% | — | — | 7.10 |
Goal in both halves 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A half without a goal | 55.7% | 57.2% | — | — | 1.75 |
| A goal in each half | 44.3% | 42.8% | — | — | 2.34 |
Goal range 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-3 goals | 48.3% | 47.4% | 48.8% | 0.97× | 2.11 |
| 0-1 goals | 33.5% | 30.8% | 26.8% | 1.15× | 3.25 |
| 4-6 goals | 17.5% | 20.2% | 23.3% | 0.87× | 4.96 |
| 7+ goals | 0.8% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 1.33× | 54.73 |
Goals away 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena to score exactly 1 | 36.2% | 36.0% | 36.4% | 0.99× | 2.78 |
| Modena to score exactly 0 | 30.3% | 33.8% | 33.0% | 1.02× | 2.96 |
| Modena to score exactly 2 | 21.6% | 22.4% | 21.7% | 1.03× | 4.46 |
| Modena to score 3+ | 11.9% | 12.8% | 9.1% | 1.40× | 7.81 |
Goals home 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to score exactly 1 | 36.8% | 35.6% | 35.9% | 0.99× | 2.81 |
| Carrarese to score exactly 0 | 36.3% | 35.6% | 22.3% | 1.60× | 2.81 |
| Carrarese to score exactly 2 | 18.7% | 18.9% | 26.0% | 0.73× | 5.29 |
| Carrarese to score 3+ | 8.3% | 10.3% | 16.0% | 0.64× | 9.71 |
Half time 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT | 49.5% | 52.6% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Modena leading at HT | 26.7% | 25.6% | — | — | 3.90 |
| Carrarese leading at HT | 23.8% | 20.2% | — | — | 4.95 |
Handicap 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena -1: 1 | 61.7% | 62.4% | — | — | 1.60 |
| Modena -1: X | 21.1% | 23.6% | — | — | 4.24 |
| Modena -1: 2 | 17.2% | 17.5% | — | — | 5.72 |
Handicap 0:1 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (0:1) | 70.7% | 71.0% | 57.3% | 1.24× | 1.41 |
| Draw (0:1) | 17.7% | 17.8% | 23.3% | 0.76× | 5.63 |
| Carrarese (0:1) | 11.6% | 13.8% | 19.5% | 0.71× | 7.23 |
Handicap 0:2 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (0:2) | 88.4% | 87.0% | 80.5% | 1.08× | 1.15 |
| Draw (0:2) | 8.3% | 7.7% | 12.9% | 0.60× | 12.94 |
| Carrarese (0:2) | 3.3% | 3.8% | 6.8% | 0.56× | 26.56 |
Handicap 0:3 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (0:3) | 96.7% | 96.6% | 93.2% | 1.04× | 1.04 |
| Draw (0:3) | 2.6% | 2.4% | 4.6% | 0.51× | 42.15 |
| Carrarese (0:3) | 0.8% | 2.4% | 2.3% | 1.05× | 42.23 |
Handicap 0:4 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (0:4) | 99.2% | 98.1% | 97.7% | 1.00× | 1.02 |
| Draw (0:4) | 0.6% | 1.2% | 1.4% | 0.87× | 83.61 |
| Carrarese (0:4) | 0.1% | 1.2% | 1.0% | 1.19× | 83.67 |
Handicap 1:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (1:0) | 61.7% | 65.1% | 74.6% | 0.87× | 1.54 |
| Draw (1:0) | 21.1% | 21.8% | 15.6% | 1.39× | 4.60 |
| Modena (1:0) | 17.2% | 17.0% | 9.9% | 1.72× | 5.87 |
Handicap 2:0 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese (2:0) | 82.8% | 84.5% | 90.1% | 0.94× | 1.18 |
| Draw (2:0) | 11.5% | 10.4% | 6.5% | 1.59× | 9.64 |
| Modena (2:0) | 5.7% | 6.4% | 3.5% | 1.84× | 15.51 |
Highest scoring half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2nd half highest scoring | 43.9% | 49.7% | — | — | 2.01 |
| Halves equal | 31.0% | 28.4% | — | — | 3.53 |
| 1st half highest scoring | 25.2% | 26.5% | — | — | 3.77 |
Home clean sheet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to concede | 69.7% | 66.6% | 67.0% | 0.99× | 1.50 |
| Carrarese clean sheet | 30.3% | 33.4% | 33.0% | 1.01× | 2.99 |
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese clean sheet in 1st half | 62.0% | 64.2% | — | — | 1.56 |
| Carrarese to concede in 1st half | 38.0% | 35.8% | — | — | 2.79 |
Home corners O/U 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese over 2.5 corners | 87.4% | 86.3% | — | — | 1.16 |
| Carrarese over 3.5 corners | 76.1% | 76.6% | — | — | 1.31 |
| Carrarese under 6.5 corners | 63.7% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Carrarese over 4.5 corners | 62.7% | 62.3% | — | — | 1.61 |
| Carrarese under 5.5 corners | 51.1% | 52.8% | — | — | 1.90 |
| Carrarese over 5.5 corners | 48.9% | 47.2% | — | — | 2.12 |
| Carrarese under 4.5 corners | 37.3% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Carrarese over 6.5 corners | 36.3% | 37.7% | — | — | 2.65 |
| Carrarese under 3.5 corners | 23.9% | 23.5% | — | — | 4.26 |
| Carrarese under 2.5 corners | 12.6% | 13.7% | — | — | 7.29 |
Home goals O/U 8
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese under 3.5 goals | 98.0% | 96.4% | 95.9% | 1.01× | 1.04 |
| Carrarese under 2.5 goals | 91.7% | 92.2% | 84.0% | 1.10× | 1.08 |
| Carrarese under 1.5 goals | 73.1% | 74.2% | 58.1% | 1.28× | 1.35 |
| Carrarese over 0.5 goals | 63.7% | 63.5% | 77.7% | 0.82× | 1.58 |
| Carrarese under 0.5 goals | 36.3% | 36.5% | 22.3% | 1.64× | 2.74 |
| Carrarese over 1.5 goals | 26.9% | 25.8% | 41.9% | 0.62× | 3.87 |
| Carrarese over 2.5 goals | 8.3% | 7.8% | 16.0% | 0.48× | 12.90 |
| Carrarese over 3.5 goals | 2.0% | 3.6% | 4.1% | 0.88× | 27.52 |
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese under 1.5 in 1st half | 92.9% | 95.4% | — | — | 1.05 |
| Carrarese under 0.5 in 1st half | 64.7% | 64.9% | — | — | 1.54 |
| Carrarese over 0.5 in 1st half | 35.3% | 35.1% | — | — | 2.85 |
| Carrarese over 1.5 in 1st half | 7.1% | 4.6% | — | — | 21.83 |
Home no bet 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena (home no bet) | 54.2% | 51.7% | 44.2% | 1.17× | 1.94 |
| Draw (home no bet) | 45.8% | 48.3% | 55.8% | 0.87× | 2.07 |
Home Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese even goals | 56.6% | 55.4% | 51.1% | 1.09× | 1.80 |
| Carrarese odd goals | 43.4% | 44.6% | 48.9% | 0.91× | 2.25 |
HT correct score 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HT 0-0 | 40.4% | 40.4% | — | — | 2.47 |
| HT 0-1 | 18.9% | 18.8% | — | — | 5.33 |
| HT 1-0 | 17.2% | 18.7% | — | — | 5.34 |
| HT 1-1 | 8.7% | 7.1% | — | — | 14.03 |
| HT 0-2 | 4.6% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.27 |
| HT 2-0 | 3.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.33 |
| Any other HT score | 2.3% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.44 |
| HT 1-2 | 2.0% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.46 |
| HT 2-1 | 1.8% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.48 |
| HT 2-2 | 0.4% | 2.3% | — | — | 43.58 |
HT/FT 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw at HT / Draw at FT | 22.2% | 21.8% | — | — | 4.59 |
| Modena at HT / Modena at FT | 20.5% | 21.7% | — | — | 4.60 |
| Carrarese at HT / Carrarese at FT | 16.3% | 16.8% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Modena at FT | 15.7% | 16.7% | — | — | 5.97 |
| Draw at HT / Carrarese at FT | 11.6% | 12.7% | — | — | 7.90 |
| Carrarese at HT / Draw at FT | 5.4% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.73 |
| Modena at HT / Draw at FT | 4.8% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.78 |
| Carrarese at HT / Modena at FT | 2.1% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.88 |
| Modena at HT / Carrarese at FT | 1.4% | 3.5% | — | — | 28.91 |
Last goal 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena to score last | 47.3% | 46.7% | — | — | 2.14 |
| Carrarese to score last | 40.0% | 39.9% | — | — | 2.51 |
| No goal scored | 12.7% | 9.6% | — | — | 10.43 |
Lead at any time 9
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Either team to lead by 1 at any time | 87.3% | 90.5% | — | — | 1.11 |
| Modena to lead by 1 at any time | 52.9% | 50.7% | — | — | 1.97 |
| Carrarese to lead by 1 at any time | 44.8% | 39.3% | — | — | 2.54 |
| Either team to lead by 2 at any time | 37.5% | 34.9% | — | — | 2.87 |
| Modena to lead by 2 at any time | 21.8% | 19.6% | — | — | 5.10 |
| Carrarese to lead by 2 at any time | 15.7% | 14.9% | — | — | 6.72 |
| Either team to lead by 3 at any time | 11.2% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.57 |
| Modena to lead by 3 at any time | 6.9% | 6.6% | — | — | 15.08 |
| Carrarese to lead by 3 at any time | 4.2% | 1.7% | — | — | 60.15 |
Most corners 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese most corners | 56.6% | 55.5% | — | — | 1.80 |
| Modena most corners | 33.3% | 34.3% | — | — | 2.92 |
| Corners level | 10.1% | 10.4% | — | — | 9.62 |
Multi goal 15
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-5 goals | 84.7% | 83.5% | 87.2% | 0.96× | 1.20 |
| 1-4 goals | 79.9% | 78.6% | 82.1% | 0.96× | 1.27 |
| 1-3 goals | 69.0% | 69.0% | 66.5% | 1.04× | 1.45 |
| 2-6 goals | 65.7% | 68.9% | 72.0% | 0.96× | 1.45 |
| 2-5 goals | 63.9% | 63.4% | 69.6% | 0.91× | 1.58 |
| 2-4 goals | 59.1% | 59.2% | 64.5% | 0.92× | 1.69 |
| 1-2 goals | 49.3% | 48.7% | 43.6% | 1.12× | 2.06 |
| 2-3 goals | 48.3% | 48.7% | 48.8% | 1.00× | 2.06 |
| 3-6 goals | 37.2% | 39.1% | 46.2% | 0.85× | 2.55 |
| 3-5 goals | 35.4% | 39.1% | 43.8% | 0.89× | 2.56 |
| 3-4 goals | 30.6% | 35.4% | 38.7% | 0.91× | 2.83 |
| 4-6 goals | 17.5% | 18.6% | 23.3% | 0.80× | 5.37 |
| 4-5 goals | 15.7% | 18.6% | 20.9% | 0.89× | 5.37 |
| 5-6 goals | 6.6% | 8.7% | 7.6% | 1.14× | 11.45 |
| 7+ goals | 0.8% | 2.5% | 1.4% | 1.85× | 39.30 |
Never down 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modena never behind | 42.5% | 48.2% | — | — | 2.07 |
| Carrarese never behind | 34.4% | 35.8% | — | — | 2.80 |
Odd/Even 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odd number of goals | 45.9% | 50.8% | 46.7% | 1.09× | 1.97 |
| Even number of goals | 54.1% | 49.2% | 53.3% | 0.92× | 2.03 |
Odd/Even 1HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 1st half | 58.6% | 57.6% | — | — | 1.74 |
| Odd goals in 1st half | 41.4% | 42.4% | — | — | 2.36 |
Odd/Even 2HT 2
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Even goals in 2nd half | 54.9% | 52.1% | — | — | 1.92 |
| Odd goals in 2nd half | 45.1% | 47.9% | — | — | 2.09 |
Over/Under 12
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 goals | 97.5% | 95.5% | 96.2% | 0.99× | 1.05 |
| Under 4.5 goals | 92.7% | 92.3% | 91.1% | 1.01× | 1.08 |
| Over 0.5 goals | 87.3% | 87.6% | 90.9% | 0.96× | 1.14 |
| Under 3.5 goals | 81.8% | 82.4% | 75.5% | 1.09× | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | 66.2% | 73.2% | 0.90× | 1.51 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 62.1% | 61.8% | 52.6% | 1.17× | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37.9% | 38.2% | 47.4% | 0.81× | 2.62 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 33.5% | 33.8% | 26.8% | 1.26× | 2.96 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.2% | 17.6% | 24.5% | 0.72× | 5.67 |
| Under 0.5 goals | 12.7% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 1.35× | 8.09 |
| Over 4.5 goals | 7.3% | 7.7% | 8.9% | 0.87× | 12.92 |
| Over 5.5 goals | 2.5% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 1.20× | 22.22 |
Over/Under (whole line) 10
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 6 (void on exactly 6) | 99.2% | 97.2% | 98.6% | 0.99× | 1.03 |
| Under 5 (void on exactly 5) | 97.3% | 97.2% | 96.0% | 1.01× | 1.03 |
| Under 4 (void on exactly 4) | 91.8% | 92.5% | 89.5% | 1.03× | 1.08 |
| Under 3 (void on exactly 3) | 77.3% | 75.9% | 68.2% | 1.11× | 1.32 |
| Over 2 (void on exactly 2) | 53.1% | 51.8% | 63.9% | 0.81× | 1.93 |
| Under 2 (void on exactly 2) | 46.9% | 48.2% | 36.1% | 1.33× | 2.08 |
| Over 3 (void on exactly 3) | 22.7% | 24.1% | 31.8% | 0.76× | 4.15 |
| Over 4 (void on exactly 4) | 8.2% | 7.5% | 10.5% | 0.72× | 13.26 |
| Over 5 (void on exactly 5) | 2.7% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 0.70× | 36.14 |
| Over 6 (void on exactly 6) | 0.8% | 2.8% | 1.4% | 1.96× | 36.20 |
Over/Under 1HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 1st half | 93.5% | 92.8% | — | — | 1.08 |
| Under 1.5 in 1st half | 76.5% | 78.7% | — | — | 1.27 |
| Over 0.5 in 1st half | 59.6% | 62.9% | — | — | 1.59 |
| Under 0.5 in 1st half | 40.4% | 37.1% | — | — | 2.69 |
| Over 1.5 in 1st half | 23.5% | 21.3% | — | — | 4.70 |
| Over 2.5 in 1st half | 6.5% | 7.2% | — | — | 13.84 |
Over/Under 2HT 6
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 in 2nd half | 85.8% | 85.3% | — | — | 1.17 |
| Over 0.5 in 2nd half | 72.0% | 77.7% | — | — | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 in 2nd half | 62.3% | 61.7% | — | — | 1.62 |
| Over 1.5 in 2nd half | 37.7% | 38.3% | — | — | 2.61 |
| Under 0.5 in 2nd half | 28.0% | 22.3% | — | — | 4.48 |
| Over 2.5 in 2nd half | 14.2% | 14.7% | — | — | 6.79 |
Score both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese not to score in both halves | 84.5% | 84.4% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Modena not to score in both halves | 80.6% | 84.2% | — | — | 1.19 |
| Modena to score in both halves | 19.4% | 15.8% | — | — | 6.33 |
| Carrarese to score in both halves | 15.5% | 15.6% | — | — | 6.41 |
Teams to score 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams score | 46.2% | 50.5% | 53.8% | 0.94× | 1.98 |
| Only Modena scores | 23.5% | 22.3% | 13.3% | 1.68× | 4.48 |
| Only Carrarese scores | 17.6% | 16.1% | 24.0% | 0.67× | 6.22 |
| Neither team scores | 12.7% | 10.9% | 9.1% | 1.20× | 9.14 |
Total goals 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exactly 2 goals | 28.5% | 25.0% | 25.9% | 0.96× | 4.00 |
| Exactly 1 goals | 20.8% | 22.6% | 17.8% | 1.27× | 4.42 |
| Exactly 3 goals | 19.7% | 17.4% | 23.0% | 0.76× | 5.74 |
| Exactly 0 goals | 12.7% | 12.1% | 9.1% | 1.32× | 8.27 |
| Exactly 4 goals | 10.9% | 12.1% | 15.8% | 0.77× | 8.28 |
| Exactly 5 goals | 4.8% | 4.4% | 5.3% | 0.84× | 22.64 |
| 6 or more goals | 2.5% | 4.4% | 3.8% | 1.17× | 22.68 |
Total goals 2nd half 3
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2+ goals in 2nd half | 37.7% | 39.8% | — | — | 2.52 |
| 1 goal in 2nd half | 34.3% | 33.5% | — | — | 2.99 |
| No goals in 2nd half | 28.0% | 29.8% | — | — | 3.35 |
Win both halves 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese not to win both halves | 93.8% | 94.0% | — | — | 1.06 |
| Modena not to win both halves | 90.7% | 93.9% | — | — | 1.07 |
| Modena to win both halves | 9.3% | 6.1% | — | — | 16.40 |
| Carrarese to win both halves | 6.2% | 6.0% | — | — | 16.61 |
Win either half 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese to win neither half | 57.3% | 59.5% | — | — | 1.68 |
| Modena to win either half | 51.1% | 54.9% | — | — | 1.82 |
| Modena to win neither half | 48.9% | 45.1% | — | — | 2.22 |
| Carrarese to win either half | 42.7% | 40.5% | — | — | 2.47 |
Win to nil 4
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carrarese not to win to nil | 82.4% | 83.0% | 76.0% | 1.09× | 1.20 |
| Modena not to win to nil | 76.5% | 78.0% | 86.7% | 0.90× | 1.28 |
| Modena to win to nil | 23.5% | 22.0% | 13.3% | 1.66× | 4.55 |
| Carrarese to win to nil | 17.6% | 17.0% | 24.0% | 0.71× | 5.89 |
Winning margin 7
| Selection | Model | Calibrated | Base | Lift | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 32.4% | 27.6% | 32.0% | 0.86× | 3.62 |
| Modena by 1 | 21.1% | 24.1% | 15.6% | 1.54× | 4.14 |
| Carrarese by 1 | 17.7% | 16.9% | 23.3% | 0.73× | 5.91 |
| Modena by 2 | 11.5% | 11.8% | 6.5% | 1.81× | 8.48 |
| Carrarese by 2 | 8.3% | 7.3% | 12.9% | 0.56× | 13.78 |
| Modena by 3+ | 5.7% | 7.3% | 3.5% | 2.07× | 13.79 |
| Carrarese by 3+ | 3.3% | 2.7% | 6.8% | 0.40× | 36.98 |