Celta Vigo v Girona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 13
On target
7 – 8
Shots in box
14 – 10
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
1.10 – 0.03
Goals − xG
-0.80 – -0.42
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
54.8%
Draw
20.2%
Girona win
25.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Girona are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 3.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWDLLLDDLD last 10
scored 8
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 15.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–1.10 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.86–0.99 | 1-0 11% | 54% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 1.80 xGGirona 1.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Girona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Iván Martín |
| 14' |
Girona |
Azz-Eddine Ounahi | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Vladyslav Vanat |
| 16' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ferrán Jutglà |
| 20' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yáser Asprilla |
| 22' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Roca |
| 25' |
Celta Vigo |
Pablo Durán | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 27' |
Girona |
Joel Roca | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Álex Moreno |
| 38' |
Girona |
Iván Martín | 0.31 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 39' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 40' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 41' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Óscar Mingueza |
| 41' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 43' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 43' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 47' |
Celta Vigo |
Ferrán Jutglà | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sergio Carreira |
| 50' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Girona |
Vladyslav Vanat | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Axel Witsel |
| 59' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 61' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Sotelo | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 67' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 68' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 70' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Azz-Eddine Ounahi |
| 74' |
Celta Vigo |
Carl Starfelt | 0.16 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 76' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 80' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Domínguez |
| 82' |
Girona |
Portu | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 82' |
Girona |
Yáser Asprilla | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Bryan Gil Salvatierra |
| 83' |
Girona |
Bryan Gil Salvatierra | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 85' |
Celta Vigo |
Carl Starfelt | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Javier Rueda |
| 86' |
Girona |
Donny van de Beek | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jhon Solis |
| 88' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Hugo Sotelo |
| 91' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Girona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yáser Asprilla FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.27 |
| Álex Moreno DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Axel Witsel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.51 |
| Vitor Reis DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Daley Blind DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Paulo Gazzaniga GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Iván Martín MC | 85 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.11 | 0.63 |
| Azz-Eddine Ounahi MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.36 | 0.49 |
| Vladyslav Vanat FW | 70 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.04 | 0.57 |
| Arnau Martinez DR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Joel Roca FWL | 49 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.38 |
| Portu Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Bryan Gil Salvatierra Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.12 | 0.36 |
| Alejandro Francés Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Donny van de Beek Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jhon Solis Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.05 | 0.38 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.26 |
| Hugo Sotelo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.03 | 0.28 | 0.08 |
| Sergio Carreira DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.06 |
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Manuel Fernández DC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.31 |
| Iago Aspas FWR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.09 | 0.27 | 0.51 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ferrán Jutglà FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.35 |
| Pablo Durán FWL | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Borja Iglesias Sub | 27 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.79 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Bryan Zaragoza Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Carl Starfelt Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hugo Álvarez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Javier Rueda Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |