Celta Vigo v Malaga — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627

La Liga xG Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Celta Vigo

11:00

Malaga

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 175h before kick-off

Celta Vigo win

47.0%

model 47.4%

Draw

26.5%

model 26.3%

Malaga win

26.5%

model 26.4%

472727

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.5%
1-0 12.2%
2-1 9.1%
2-0 8.9%
0-1 8.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	45.3%	Under 2.5	54.7%
BTTS yes	49.2%	BTTS no	50.8%
Celta Vigo 1+	76.9%	Celta Vigo 2+	43.0%
Malaga 1+	64.0%	Malaga 2+	27.2%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.02. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

92/100

Data quality

100/100

Model agreement

92%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 45%

54.0% fair odds 1.85

moderate signal · 1233 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 12.5 corners

Corners O/U

83.0% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 4269 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

At home Celta Vigo average 1.26 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Celta Vigo have an estimated 47.0% win probability, against 26.5% for Malaga and 26.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Celta Vigo and 1.02 for Malaga.

Why Celta Vigo

At home Celta Vigo average 1.26 xG a match.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Malaga can win

Malaga carry the stronger rating, 1596 Elo against 1496. They have had 14 days' rest to Celta Vigo's 10. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Celta Vigo were missing 0.80 expected goal involvements a match against 0.15.

Key players

Celta Vigo's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Borja Iglesias (0.32), Ferrán Jutglà (0.26), Williot Swedberg (0.23). Malaga's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Chupe (0.43), Carlos Dotor (0.25), David Larrubia (0.15).

Availability

1 of Celta Vigo's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Celta Vigo: 53% possession, 7.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.14 xG a match from set pieces. Malaga: 50% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.26 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Celta Vigo are the model's most likely outcome at 47.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 92/100, data quality 100/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LWWLDWDLLD last 10 scored 10 from 10.1 xG conceded 11 from 18.5 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	472626	1.47–1.02	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	552520	1.61–0.86	1-0 14%	45%	46%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to win	53.9%	51.5%	47.0%	1.09×	1.94
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Malaga to win	20.7%	24.4%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo & not both score	33.2%	29.7%	25.5%	1.16×	3.36
Celta Vigo & both teams score	20.7%	21.9%	21.6%	1.01×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	16.6%	17.9%	20.1%	0.89×	5.58
Malaga & not both score	12.0%	13.2%	14.6%	0.91×	7.55
Draw & not both score	8.7%	8.4%	5.0%	1.66×	11.94
Malaga & both teams score	8.7%	8.4%	13.6%	0.62×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo & over 1.5	40.2%	40.3%	34.2%	1.18×	2.48
Celta Vigo & under 3.5	39.4%	34.9%	33.3%	1.05×	2.86
Celta Vigo & over 2.5	29.5%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Celta Vigo & under 2.5	24.5%	21.6%	19.1%	1.13×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	20.6%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	20.6%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	16.6%	18.0%	20.1%	0.89×	5.56
Malaga & under 3.5	17.0%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Celta Vigo & over 3.5	14.5%	12.9%	13.8%	0.93×	7.77
Celta Vigo & under 1.5	13.7%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Malaga & over 1.5	13.2%	12.9%	21.0%	0.61×	7.78
Malaga & under 2.5	10.8%	12.9%	11.7%	1.10×	7.78
Malaga & over 2.5	9.9%	7.9%	16.5%	0.48×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	8.7%	7.9%	5.0%	1.57×	12.69
Malaga & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	5.3%	0.90×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	5.3%	0.90×	20.93
Malaga & over 3.5	3.8%	4.8%	6.3%	0.76×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (1UP)	66.1%	69.9%	63.4%	1.10×	1.43
Malaga (1UP)	36.5%	33.9%	47.0%	0.72×	2.95

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (2UP)	53.9%	55.8%	48.9%	1.14×	1.79
Malaga (2UP)	20.7%	23.4%	29.7%	0.79×	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to win 2nd half	42.3%	41.2%	39.4%	1.05×	2.43
2nd half drawn	40.4%	41.1%	33.0%	1.25×	2.43
Malaga to win 2nd half	17.2%	19.2%	27.7%	0.69×	5.21

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (+2.5)	88.1%	88.5%	90.1%	0.98×	1.13
Celta Vigo (+0.5)	79.3%	78.5%	72.0%	1.09×	1.27
Malaga (+1.5)	71.5%	73.7%	79.1%	0.93×	1.36
Celta Vigo (-0.5)	53.9%	52.4%	47.0%	1.11×	1.91
Malaga (+0.5)	46.1%	47.6%	53.0%	0.90×	2.10
Celta Vigo (-1.5)	28.5%	26.3%	20.9%	1.26×	3.80
Malaga (-0.5)	20.7%	21.5%	28.1%	0.77×	4.65
Celta Vigo (-2.5)	11.9%	11.5%	9.9%	1.16×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to concede	79.3%	79.0%	80.5%	0.98×	1.27
Malaga clean sheet	20.7%	21.0%	19.5%	1.08×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga clean sheet in 1st half	46.3%	50.8%	51.9%	0.98×	1.97
Malaga to concede in 1st half	53.7%	49.2%	48.1%	1.02×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 6.5 corners	85.7%	84.9%	—	—	1.18
Malaga under 5.5 corners	76.2%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Malaga over 2.5 corners	71.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Malaga under 4.5 corners	63.0%	61.4%	—	—	1.63
Malaga over 3.5 corners	53.6%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Malaga under 3.5 corners	46.4%	47.6%	—	—	2.10
Malaga over 4.5 corners	37.0%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Malaga under 2.5 corners	28.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Malaga over 5.5 corners	23.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Malaga over 6.5 corners	14.3%	15.1%	—	—	6.62

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 3.5 goals	98.8%	97.6%	97.4%	1.00×	1.03
Malaga under 2.5 goals	94.2%	92.4%	90.3%	1.02×	1.08
Malaga under 1.5 goals	78.4%	76.2%	68.4%	1.11×	1.31
Malaga over 0.5 goals	58.1%	59.6%	69.6%	0.86×	1.68
Malaga under 0.5 goals	41.9%	40.4%	30.4%	1.33×	2.48
Malaga over 1.5 goals	21.6%	23.8%	31.6%	0.75×	4.21
Malaga over 2.5 goals	5.8%	7.6%	9.7%	0.79×	13.09
Malaga over 3.5 goals	1.2%	2.4%	2.6%	0.92×	41.14

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga under 1.5 in 1st half	92.0%	94.1%	93.6%	1.01×	1.06
Malaga under 0.5 in 1st half	62.8%	64.4%	63.6%	1.01×	1.55
Malaga over 0.5 in 1st half	37.2%	35.6%	36.4%	0.98×	2.81
Malaga over 1.5 in 1st half	8.0%	5.9%	6.4%	0.92×	17.01

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (away no bet)	68.0%	66.5%	65.3%	1.02×	1.50
Draw (away no bet)	32.0%	33.5%	34.7%	0.96×	2.98

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga even goals	58.8%	56.9%	54.1%	1.05×	1.76
Malaga odd goals	41.2%	43.1%	45.9%	0.94×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	88.1%	88.0%	87.2%	1.01×	1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals	11.9%	12.0%	12.8%	0.94×	8.31

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	57.1%	59.6%	62.3%	0.96×	1.68
Both halves under 1.5 goals	42.9%	40.4%	37.7%	1.07×	2.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	51.6%	51.1%	52.3%	0.98×	1.96
Celta Vigo to score 2+ in a row	40.2%	38.1%	34.3%	1.11×	2.63
Either team to score 3+ in a row	18.4%	16.4%	18.9%	0.87×	6.09
Celta Vigo to score 3+ in a row	15.4%	16.4%	13.1%	1.25×	6.11
Malaga to score 2+ in a row	15.4%	16.4%	23.6%	0.69×	6.11
Malaga to score 3+ in a row	3.1%	2.6%	6.3%	0.42×	38.19

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo corners (+3.5)	87.6%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Malaga corners (+3.5)	83.0%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Celta Vigo corners (+2.5)	80.6%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Malaga corners (+2.5)	74.6%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Celta Vigo corners (+1.5)	71.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Malaga corners (+1.5)	64.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Celta Vigo corners (-1.5)	35.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Malaga corners (-1.5)	28.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Celta Vigo corners (-2.5)	25.4%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Malaga corners (-2.5)	19.4%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Celta Vigo corners (-3.5)	17.0%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Malaga corners (-3.5)	12.4%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	55.2%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	17.4%	21.7%	—	—	4.61

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 10.5 corners	75.2%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	66.0%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 7.5 corners	56.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	55.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	44.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	43.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.0%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 10.5 corners	24.8%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Over 11.5 corners	17.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.96
Over 12.5 corners	11.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	13.7%	11.5%	13.0%	0.88×	8.73
1-1	11.9%	11.5%	15.0%	0.77×	8.73
2-0	10.8%	11.5%	6.3%	1.82×	8.73
0-0	8.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.46
2-1	9.4%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.46
0-1	7.6%	7.4%	7.2%	1.04×	13.46
1-2	5.2%	7.4%	8.4%	0.88×	13.46
3-0	5.6%	7.4%	4.7%	1.60×	13.46
3-1	4.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.47×	58.56
0-2	3.3%	1.7%	4.7%	0.37×	58.57
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.94×	58.59
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.58
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.39×	58.59
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.57
2-3	1.2%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.59
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.5%	3.39×	58.59
3-2	2.1%	1.7%	3.1%	0.54×	58.58
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.70×	58.59
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.52×	58.59
4-0	2.2%	1.7%	1.6%	1.04×	58.58
4-1	1.9%	1.7%	2.0%	0.85×	58.58
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.23×	58.59
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.26×	58.59
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	13.57×	58.59
Any other score	2.4%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo leading at HT (DNB)	66.0%	73.2%	62.4%	1.17×	1.37
Malaga leading at HT (DNB)	34.0%	26.8%	37.6%	0.71×	3.74

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or draw (1X)	79.3%	75.6%	72.0%	1.05×	1.32
Celta Vigo or Malaga (12)	74.7%	72.1%	75.0%	0.96×	1.39
Malaga or draw (X2)	46.1%	48.5%	53.0%	0.92×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or draw at HT	79.7%	80.1%	78.6%	1.02×	1.25
Malaga or draw at HT	60.7%	62.2%	64.5%	0.96×	1.61
Celta Vigo or Malaga at HT	59.5%	56.9%	56.8%	1.00×	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or draw (1UP)	79.3%	84.1%	78.2%	1.08×	1.19
Malaga or draw (1UP)	46.1%	52.1%	59.8%	0.87×	1.92

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo or draw in 2nd half	82.8%	80.8%	72.3%	1.12×	1.24
Celta Vigo or Malaga in 2nd half	59.6%	58.9%	67.0%	0.88×	1.70
Malaga or draw in 2nd half	57.7%	58.8%	60.6%	0.97×	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	64.5%	61.7%	62.3%	0.99×	1.62
Neither half drawn	35.5%	38.3%	37.7%	1.02×	2.61

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (DNB)	72.2%	71.5%	62.6%	1.14×	1.40
Malaga (DNB)	27.8%	28.5%	37.4%	0.76×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score first	58.8%	62.3%	55.7%	1.12×	1.61
Malaga to score first	32.5%	27.0%	39.4%	0.68×	3.70
No goal scored	8.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.45

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	54.0%	51.5%	44.9%	1.15×	1.94
Both teams to score	46.0%	48.5%	55.1%	0.88×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	44.0%	41.6%	35.6%	1.17×	2.41
Both score & over 2.5	34.1%	34.4%	40.3%	0.85×	2.91
Both score & under 2.5	11.9%	12.3%	15.0%	0.82×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.0%	8.4%	9.4%	0.89×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	89.9%	85.7%	86.5%	0.99×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	10.1%	14.3%	13.5%	1.06×	6.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.7%	73.8%	71.5%	1.03×	1.36
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.3%	26.2%	28.5%	0.92×	3.81

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.4%	62.3%	60.5%	1.03×	1.61
Both score 1st half only	16.3%	15.6%	11.2%	1.39×	6.41
Both score 2nd half only	14.6%	10.5%	23.0%	0.46×	9.50
Both score in both halves	3.7%	5.0%	5.5%	0.89×	20.18

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	80.0%	81.8%	83.4%	0.98×	1.22
Both teams to score by HT	20.0%	18.2%	16.6%	1.09×	5.49

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	50.3%	53.2%	45.3%	1.17×	1.88
A goal in each half	49.7%	46.8%	54.7%	0.86×	2.14

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.1%	47.4%	50.1%	0.95×	2.11
0-1 goals	29.9%	26.4%	24.9%	1.06×	3.78
4-6 goals	21.7%	22.8%	23.1%	0.99×	4.38
7+ goals	1.3%	1.8%	2.1%	0.85×	55.31

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to score exactly 0	41.9%	37.0%	30.4%	1.21×	2.71
Malaga to score exactly 1	36.4%	36.0%	38.1%	0.94×	2.78
Malaga to score exactly 2	15.8%	19.5%	22.0%	0.89×	5.12
Malaga to score 3+	5.8%	8.5%	9.7%	0.87×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score exactly 1	32.6%	32.6%	38.5%	0.85×	3.06
Celta Vigo to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	22.6%	1.17×	3.77
Celta Vigo to score 3+	21.0%	23.3%	19.6%	1.19×	4.30
Celta Vigo to score exactly 0	20.7%	23.3%	19.5%	1.19×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.5%	43.1%	43.2%	1.00×	2.32
Celta Vigo leading at HT	39.3%	37.8%	35.5%	1.07×	2.64
Malaga leading at HT	20.3%	19.9%	21.4%	0.93×	5.03

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo -1: 2	46.1%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Celta Vigo -1: 1	28.5%	26.6%	—	—	3.77
Celta Vigo -1: X	25.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:1)	46.1%	45.9%	53.0%	0.87×	2.18
Celta Vigo (0:1)	28.5%	27.0%	20.9%	1.29×	3.70
Draw (0:1)	25.4%	27.0%	26.3%	1.03×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:2)	71.5%	75.5%	79.1%	0.95×	1.32
Draw (0:2)	16.6%	15.3%	11.1%	1.38×	6.53
Celta Vigo (0:2)	11.9%	11.0%	9.9%	1.11×	9.09

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:3)	88.1%	90.8%	90.1%	1.01×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	7.9%	5.8%	7.0%	0.82×	17.22
Celta Vigo (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	3.0%	0.79×	41.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga (0:4)	95.9%	98.1%	97.0%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.9%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.13
Celta Vigo (0:4)	1.2%	1.2%	0.8%	1.59×	83.34

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (1:0)	79.3%	78.5%	72.0%	1.09×	1.27
Draw (1:0)	14.0%	12.8%	17.6%	0.73×	7.80
Malaga (1:0)	6.7%	6.9%	10.6%	0.65×	14.50

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo (2:0)	93.3%	94.0%	89.4%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.1%	6.4%	6.9%	0.93×	15.52
Malaga (2:0)	1.6%	2.3%	3.8%	0.60×	44.31

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	37.0%	37.0%	26.4%	1.40×	2.70
2nd half highest scoring	35.6%	35.6%	51.3%	0.69×	2.81
Halves equal	27.4%	26.5%	22.4%	1.18×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to concede	58.1%	61.0%	69.6%	0.88×	1.64
Celta Vigo clean sheet	41.9%	39.0%	30.4%	1.28×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo clean sheet in 1st half	62.8%	64.5%	63.6%	1.01×	1.55
Celta Vigo to concede in 1st half	37.2%	35.5%	36.4%	0.98×	2.82

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 6.5 corners	81.8%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Celta Vigo over 2.5 corners	75.6%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Celta Vigo under 5.5 corners	71.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Celta Vigo over 3.5 corners	59.0%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Celta Vigo under 4.5 corners	57.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Celta Vigo over 4.5 corners	42.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Celta Vigo under 3.5 corners	41.0%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Celta Vigo over 5.5 corners	28.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Celta Vigo under 2.5 corners	24.4%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Celta Vigo over 6.5 corners	18.2%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 3.5 goals	92.5%	92.2%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Celta Vigo over 0.5 goals	79.3%	77.7%	80.5%	0.97×	1.29
Celta Vigo under 2.5 goals	79.0%	77.7%	80.4%	0.97×	1.29
Celta Vigo under 1.5 goals	53.4%	53.3%	57.9%	0.92×	1.88
Celta Vigo over 1.5 goals	46.6%	46.7%	42.1%	1.11×	2.14
Celta Vigo over 2.5 goals	21.0%	22.3%	19.6%	1.14×	4.49
Celta Vigo under 0.5 goals	20.7%	22.3%	19.5%	1.14×	4.49
Celta Vigo over 3.5 goals	7.5%	7.8%	7.3%	1.06×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo under 1.5 in 1st half	82.0%	84.6%	86.1%	0.98×	1.18
Celta Vigo under 0.5 in 1st half	46.3%	50.9%	51.9%	0.98×	1.96
Celta Vigo over 0.5 in 1st half	53.7%	49.1%	48.1%	1.02×	2.04
Celta Vigo over 1.5 in 1st half	18.0%	15.4%	13.9%	1.11×	6.50

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.0%	51.6%	47.2%	1.09×	1.94
Malaga (home no bet)	45.0%	48.4%	52.8%	0.92×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo even goals	52.2%	50.6%	47.4%	1.07×	1.98
Celta Vigo odd goals	47.8%	49.4%	52.6%	0.94×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	29.1%	28.7%	32.1%	0.89×	3.48
HT 1-0	22.4%	24.2%	22.8%	1.06×	4.13
HT 0-1	13.5%	11.1%	16.4%	0.68×	9.04
HT 1-1	10.4%	11.0%	10.2%	1.08×	9.07
HT 2-0	8.6%	7.1%	6.3%	1.13×	14.08
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.1%	4.5%	1.56×	14.13
HT 2-1	4.0%	2.2%	3.1%	0.71×	44.62
HT 0-2	3.2%	2.2%	2.9%	0.77×	44.69
HT 1-2	2.4%	2.2%	1.5%	1.48×	44.75
HT 2-2	0.9%	2.2%	1.1%	1.97×	44.87

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	34.4%	32.4%	26.6%	1.22×	3.09
Draw at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	17.1%	16.8%	18.0%	0.93×	5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.4%	16.8%	13.9%	1.21×	5.96
Malaga at HT / Malaga at FT	12.9%	12.7%	12.7%	1.00×	7.89
Draw at HT / Malaga at FT	7.0%	6.0%	11.6%	0.52×	16.59
Malaga at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.4%	6.2%	0.56×	29.09
Celta Vigo at HT / Draw at FT	4.0%	3.4%	5.2%	0.67×	29.12
Malaga at HT / Celta Vigo at FT	2.4%	3.4%	2.8%	1.24×	29.19
Celta Vigo at HT / Malaga at FT	0.9%	3.4%	4.0%	0.85×	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo to score last	58.8%	56.6%	55.8%	1.01×	1.77
Malaga to score last	32.5%	32.8%	39.3%	0.83×	3.05
No goal scored	8.7%	7.4%	5.0%	1.48×	13.45

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	91.3%	92.7%	95.0%	0.98×	1.08
Celta Vigo to lead by 1 at any time	66.1%	69.4%	63.4%	1.10×	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	44.1%	39.1%	41.6%	0.94×	2.56
Malaga to lead by 1 at any time	36.5%	34.7%	47.0%	0.74×	2.88
Celta Vigo to lead by 2 at any time	33.9%	29.5%	26.6%	1.11×	3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.2%	14.9%	16.6%	0.90×	6.71
Celta Vigo to lead by 3 at any time	13.8%	10.5%	12.2%	0.86×	9.54
Malaga to lead by 2 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	15.4%	0.68×	9.61
Malaga to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	4.5%	0.35×	63.56

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo most corners	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Malaga most corners	40.0%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	12.2%	10.7%	—	—	9.39

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	89.3%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	81.2%	83.5%	81.8%	1.02×	1.20
2-6 goals	68.8%	69.0%	73.1%	0.94×	1.45
1-3 goals	68.3%	69.0%	69.9%	0.99×	1.45
2-5 goals	66.2%	69.0%	69.4%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.9%	59.2%	61.9%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	47.2%	48.7%	45.5%	1.07×	2.06
2-3 goals	47.1%	48.7%	50.1%	0.97×	2.06
3-6 goals	42.9%	43.6%	47.5%	0.92×	2.29
3-5 goals	40.3%	43.6%	43.9%	0.99×	2.29
3-4 goals	34.0%	35.4%	36.4%	0.97×	2.83
4-6 goals	21.7%	24.4%	23.1%	1.06×	4.09
4-5 goals	19.2%	18.6%	19.5%	0.96×	5.37
5-6 goals	8.9%	8.7%	11.3%	0.77×	11.43
7+ goals	1.3%	2.5%	2.1%	1.18×	39.52

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo never behind	54.8%	62.8%	53.0%	1.18×	1.59
Malaga never behind	25.2%	29.8%	36.7%	0.81×	3.36

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.6%	50.8%	53.6%	0.95×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.4%	49.2%	46.4%	1.06×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.2%	51.6%	53.4%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	45.8%	48.4%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.5%	52.1%	49.7%	1.05×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.5%	47.9%	50.3%	0.95×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	96.2%	95.5%	94.2%	1.01×	1.05
Over 0.5 goals	91.3%	92.3%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	89.9%	87.7%	86.7%	1.01×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	77.0%	77.4%	74.8%	1.03×	1.29
Over 1.5 goals	70.1%	72.5%	75.1%	0.97×	1.38
Under 2.5 goals	55.9%	58.8%	50.4%	1.17×	1.70
Over 2.5 goals	44.1%	41.2%	49.6%	0.83×	2.43
Under 1.5 goals	29.9%	27.5%	24.9%	1.10×	3.64
Over 3.5 goals	23.0%	22.6%	25.2%	0.90×	4.42
Over 4.5 goals	10.1%	12.3%	13.3%	0.92×	8.12
Under 0.5 goals	8.7%	7.7%	5.0%	1.54×	12.94
Over 5.5 goals	3.8%	4.5%	5.8%	0.78×	22.19

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	98.7%	97.3%	97.8%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	95.9%	97.2%	93.7%	1.04×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	88.4%	86.7%	84.9%	1.02×	1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	70.8%	72.6%	66.7%	1.09×	1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.6%	55.6%	66.6%	0.83×	1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	40.4%	44.4%	33.4%	1.33×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	29.2%	27.4%	33.3%	0.82×	3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	11.6%	13.3%	15.1%	0.88×	7.54
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	4.1%	2.8%	6.3%	0.44×	36.32
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	1.3%	2.7%	2.2%	1.24×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	87.2%	89.3%	90.1%	0.99×	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	70.9%	71.0%	67.9%	1.05×	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	65.0%	63.8%	71.0%	0.90×	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.0%	36.2%	29.0%	1.25×	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	29.1%	29.0%	32.1%	0.90×	3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half	12.8%	10.7%	10.0%	1.08×	9.34

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	85.4%	79.8%	1.07×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	70.1%	77.8%	81.7%	0.95×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	66.1%	67.0%	53.8%	1.25×	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	33.9%	33.0%	46.2%	0.71×	3.03
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	29.9%	22.2%	18.3%	1.22×	4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	14.6%	20.2%	0.72×	6.86

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to score in both halves	87.7%	85.9%	81.6%	1.05×	1.16
Celta Vigo not to score in both halves	70.4%	74.2%	73.7%	1.01×	1.35
Celta Vigo to score in both halves	29.6%	25.8%	26.3%	0.98×	3.87
Malaga to score in both halves	12.4%	14.1%	18.4%	0.77×	7.10

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.0%	50.3%	55.1%	0.91×	1.99
Only Celta Vigo scores	33.2%	33.4%	25.5%	1.31×	3.00
Only Malaga scores	12.0%	10.9%	14.6%	0.75×	9.14
Neither team scores	8.7%	7.2%	5.0%	1.43×	13.93

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.9%	25.0%	25.7%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	21.2%	22.6%	20.0%	1.13×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	21.1%	22.6%	24.5%	0.92×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	12.9%	12.1%	12.0%	1.01×	8.29
Exactly 0 goals	8.7%	7.6%	5.0%	1.51×	13.13
Exactly 5 goals	6.3%	7.6%	7.7%	0.99×	13.14
6 or more goals	3.8%	4.4%	5.8%	0.76×	22.61

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.1%	39.8%	35.6%	1.12×	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	33.9%	33.9%	46.2%	0.73×	2.95
No goals in 2nd half	29.9%	29.7%	18.3%	1.63×	3.37

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	94.7%	1.03×	1.03
Celta Vigo not to win both halves	83.4%	84.3%	88.2%	0.96×	1.19
Celta Vigo to win both halves	16.6%	15.7%	11.8%	1.33×	6.35
Malaga to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	5.3%	0.54×	35.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga to win neither half	66.0%	67.7%	56.2%	1.21×	1.48
Celta Vigo to win either half	65.0%	65.4%	63.1%	1.04×	1.53
Celta Vigo to win neither half	35.0%	34.6%	36.9%	0.94×	2.89
Malaga to win either half	34.0%	32.3%	43.8%	0.74×	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Malaga not to win to nil	88.0%	88.2%	85.4%	1.03×	1.13
Celta Vigo not to win to nil	66.8%	69.6%	74.5%	0.94×	1.44
Celta Vigo to win to nil	33.2%	30.4%	25.5%	1.19×	3.29
Malaga to win to nil	12.0%	11.8%	14.6%	0.81×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Celta Vigo by 1	25.4%	27.8%	26.3%	1.06×	3.59
Draw	25.3%	27.8%	25.0%	1.11×	3.59
Celta Vigo by 2	16.6%	16.9%	11.1%	1.53×	5.90
Malaga by 1	14.0%	11.8%	17.6%	0.67×	8.46
Celta Vigo by 3+	11.9%	11.8%	9.9%	1.19×	8.46
Malaga by 2	5.1%	7.2%	6.9%	1.05×	13.81
Malaga by 3+	1.6%	2.7%	3.8%	0.72×	37.02