Celta Vigo v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 27 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
4 – 13
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
1 – 8
xG per shot
0.03 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.02 – 0.87
Goals − xG
+0.89 – +0.04
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
50.4%
Draw
24.1%
Osasuna win
25.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Osasuna are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWLLLLLDWW last 10
scored 10
from 14.9 xG
conceded 13
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.63–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.53–1.15 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 0.11 xGOsasuna 1.96 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Osasuna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Miguel Román |
| 20' |
 Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
Osasuna |
Abel Bretones | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 43' |
Osasuna |
Kike Barja | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raul García |
| 51' |
Osasuna |
Lucas Torró | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kike Barja |
| 53' |
Osasuna |
Kike Barja | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raul García |
| 53' |
Osasuna |
Raul García | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jonathan Dubasin |
| 59' |
Osasuna |
Rubén García | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kike Barja |
| 61' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
| 63' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 78' |
Celta Vigo |
Jones El Abdellaoui | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 86' |
Osasuna |
Iker Muñoz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Torró |
| 87' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Abel Bretones |
| 91' |
Celta Vigo |
Carl Starfelt | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 94' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 97' |
Osasuna |
Ante Budimir | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rubén García |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ionut Radu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Miguel Román MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.07 |
| Ilaix Moriba MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Javier Rodríguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pablo Durán FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javi Galán DML | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Javier Rueda DMR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Williot Swedberg FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Iago Aspas FWR | 54 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marcos Alonso DC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carl Starfelt Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sergio Carreira Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jones El Abdellaoui Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Hugo Álvarez Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Ferrán Jutglà Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Osasuna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Torró MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Abel Bretones DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.19 |
| Sergio Herrera GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alejandro Catena DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Asier Osambela DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Iñigo Arguibide DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Raul García FW | 84 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.59 | 0.84 |
| Kike Barja ML | 76 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.16 | 0.81 |
| Jorge Herrando DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jonathan Dubasin MR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Jon Moncayola MC | 48 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Muñoz Sub | 42 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Ante Budimir Sub | 30 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1.02 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Rubén García Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.22 | 0.31 |
| Moi Gómez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Aimar Oroz Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |