Celta Vigo v Villarreal — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 23 April 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 4
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
13 – 4
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.88 – 0.50
Goals − xG
-0.58 – -0.59
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Celta Vigo win
35.5%
Draw
24.6%
Villarreal win
39.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Celta Vigo are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWLDWDLLD last 10
scored 10
from 10.1 xG
conceded 11
from 18.5 xG
Villarreal are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWDLLWDDLL last 10
scored 21
from 19.7 xG
conceded 17
from 14.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.38–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.43 | 1-1 12% | 56% | 59% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Celta Vigo 3.58 xGVillarreal 0.59 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Celta Vigo attacking right
Villarreal attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Celta Vigo |
Damián Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Fernando López |
| 4' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 22' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Borja Iglesias |
| 32' |
 Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 38' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 44' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fran Beltrán |
| 44' |
Celta Vigo |
Fernando López | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Borja Iglesias |
| 44' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Alfon | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fernando López |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Hugo Álvarez |
| 46' |
Celta Vigo |
Hugo Álvarez | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alfon |
| 47' |
Celta Vigo |
Óscar Mingueza | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Celta Vigo |
Fran Beltrán | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Damián Rodríguez |
| 51' |
Villarreal |
Nicolas Pepe | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kiko Femenía |
| 52' |
Celta Vigo |
Borja Iglesias | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Hugo Álvarez |
| 52' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 60' |
Villarreal |
Santiago Comesaña | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Denis Suárez |
| 67' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ilaix Moriba |
| 67' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Fernando López |
| 70' |
Celta Vigo |
Sergio Carreira | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 79' |
Celta Vigo |
Ilaix Moriba | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iago Aspas |
| 80' |
Celta Vigo |
Marcos Alonso | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 80' |
Villarreal |
Tajon Buchanan | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Parejo |
| 86' |
Celta Vigo |
Iago Aspas | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — |
Players
Celta Vigo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Alonso DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Alfon FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.09 | 0.20 |
| Damián Rodríguez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.71 |
| Óscar Mingueza DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Vicente Guaita GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Carlos Domínguez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Fernando López FWR | 80 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.06 | 0.14 | 1.83 |
| Yoel Lago DC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Borja Iglesias FW | 71 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1.10 | 1.06 | 2.20 |
| Hugo Álvarez DMR | 60 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.55 | 0.66 |
| Fran Beltrán MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.58 | 1.18 |
| Ilaix Moriba Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.30 |
| Sergio Carreira Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Iago Aspas Sub | 19 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.77 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Javier Rodríguez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Iker Losada Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Villarreal
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Pepe FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Willy Kambwala DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pape Alassane Gueye MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Luiz Júnior GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfonso DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Kiko Femenía DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Denis Suárez ML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Comesaña MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Logan Costa Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Yeremi Pino MR | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Eric Bailly DC | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ayoze Pérez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Parejo Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Tajon Buchanan Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Pau Navarro Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |