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Celtic v Ferencvaros — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 17 September 2026 · EUR-Europa League · 2627

Europa League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Celtic win
47.9%
Draw
18.7%
Ferencvaros win
33.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.83–1.49 2-1 9% 64% 63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 47.9% 47.5% 44.8% 1.06× 2.11
Ferencvaros to win 33.4% 30.4% 29.3% 1.04× 3.29
Draw 18.7% 19.3% 26.0% 0.74× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & both teams score 27.0% 25.2% 19.9% 1.27× 3.97
Celtic & not both score 20.9% 21.9% 24.9% 0.88× 4.57
Ferencvaros & both teams score 19.1% 17.9% 13.9% 1.29× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 17.0% 17.9% 18.4% 0.98× 5.58
Ferencvaros & not both score 14.3% 13.3% 15.4% 0.86× 7.55
Draw & not both score 1.6% 4.9% 7.6% 0.64× 20.56
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic & over 1.5 39.3% 34.9% 33.7% 1.04× 2.86
Celtic & over 2.5 33.2% 30.9% 26.4% 1.17× 3.24
Celtic & under 3.5 27.4% 26.0% 31.3% 0.83× 3.84
Ferencvaros & over 1.5 26.1% 26.0% 21.6% 1.20× 3.84
Ferencvaros & over 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 17.2% 1.26× 4.62
Celtic & over 3.5 20.5% 21.6% 13.5% 1.60× 4.62
Ferencvaros & under 3.5 20.6% 21.6% 21.2% 1.02× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 17.0% 18.0% 18.4% 0.98× 5.56
Celtic & under 2.5 14.7% 12.9% 18.4% 0.70× 7.77
Ferencvaros & over 3.5 12.8% 12.9% 8.0% 1.60× 7.78
Ferencvaros & under 2.5 11.3% 12.9% 12.1% 1.06× 7.78
Celtic & under 1.5 8.6% 7.9% 11.0% 0.71× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.69
Draw & under 2.5 9.5% 7.9% 19.7% 0.40× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 9.1% 7.9% 6.3% 1.25× 12.69
Draw & under 3.5 9.5% 7.9% 19.7% 0.40× 12.69
Ferencvaros & under 1.5 7.3% 7.9% 7.7% 1.03× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 1.6% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.95
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1UP) 64.9% 63.3% 60.0% 1.06× 1.58
Ferencvaros (1UP) 52.8% 52.8% 50.3% 1.05× 1.90
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2UP) 47.9% 49.9% 45.4% 1.10× 2.00
Ferencvaros (2UP) 33.4% 31.1% 34.1% 0.91× 3.21
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win 2nd half 39.1% 36.1% 37.7% 0.96× 2.77
Ferencvaros to win 2nd half 31.0% 34.4% 29.7% 1.16× 2.91
2nd half drawn 30.0% 26.3% 32.6% 0.81× 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (+2.5) 88.8% 88.5% 90.7% 0.98× 1.13
Ferencvaros (+1.5) 74.9% 73.7% 78.3% 0.94× 1.36
Celtic (+0.5) 66.6% 68.7% 70.7% 0.97× 1.46
Ferencvaros (+0.5) 52.1% 52.3% 55.2% 0.95× 1.91
Celtic (-0.5) 47.9% 47.7% 44.8% 1.06× 2.10
Ferencvaros (-0.5) 33.4% 31.3% 29.3% 1.07× 3.20
Celtic (-1.5) 25.1% 26.3% 21.7% 1.21× 3.80
Celtic (-2.5) 11.2% 11.5% 9.3% 1.24× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros to concede 84.0% 81.3% 77.0% 1.06× 1.23
Ferencvaros clean sheet 16.0% 18.7% 23.0% 0.81× 5.35
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros clean sheet in 1st half 45.4% 50.8% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Ferencvaros to concede in 1st half 54.6% 49.2% 48.3% 1.02× 2.03
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros under 3.5 goals 93.6% 92.4% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Ferencvaros under 2.5 goals 81.2% 81.5% 88.2% 0.92× 1.23
Ferencvaros over 0.5 goals 77.4% 76.2% 67.5% 1.13× 1.31
Ferencvaros under 1.5 goals 56.2% 59.6% 67.7% 0.88× 1.68
Ferencvaros over 1.5 goals 43.8% 40.4% 32.3% 1.25× 2.48
Ferencvaros under 0.5 goals 22.6% 23.8% 32.5% 0.73× 4.21
Ferencvaros over 2.5 goals 18.8% 18.5% 11.8% 1.57× 5.40
Ferencvaros over 3.5 goals 6.4% 7.6% 3.6% 2.11× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros under 1.5 in 1st half 88.0% 89.6% 89.5% 1.00× 1.12
Ferencvaros under 0.5 in 1st half 55.1% 62.8% 59.1% 1.06× 1.59
Ferencvaros over 0.5 in 1st half 44.9% 37.2% 40.9% 0.91× 2.69
Ferencvaros over 1.5 in 1st half 12.0% 10.4% 10.5% 0.99× 9.60
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (away no bet) 72.0% 68.5% 63.3% 1.08× 1.46
Draw (away no bet) 28.0% 31.5% 36.7% 0.86× 3.18
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros even goals 52.6% 52.7% 55.7% 0.95× 1.90
Ferencvaros odd goals 47.5% 47.3% 44.3% 1.07× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 76.8% 82.1% 82.8% 0.99× 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 23.2% 17.9% 17.2% 1.04× 5.59
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 73.7% 67.0% 66.1% 1.01× 1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals 26.3% 33.0% 33.9% 0.98× 3.03
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 65.9% 62.1% 58.6% 1.06× 1.61
Celtic to score 2+ in a row 44.0% 38.3% 37.0% 1.04× 2.61
Ferencvaros to score 2+ in a row 32.3% 28.5% 28.6% 1.00× 3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row 26.7% 25.1% 22.9% 1.10× 3.98
Celtic to score 3+ in a row 17.3% 16.4% 14.2% 1.15× 6.10
Ferencvaros to score 3+ in a row 10.1% 11.9% 9.1% 1.31× 8.39
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 8.6% 7.4% 11.0% 0.67× 13.46
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 9.0% 0.83× 13.46
0-1 7.3% 7.4% 7.7% 0.97× 13.46
1-1 7.9% 7.4% 12.1% 0.62× 13.46
1-2 7.3% 7.4% 7.0% 1.06× 13.46
2-2 6.7% 7.4% 5.2% 1.44× 13.46
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 7.3% 1.01× 13.46
3-1 5.5% 7.4% 4.1% 1.80× 13.46
Any other score 5.6% 7.4% 3.3% 2.24× 13.46
0-0 1.6% 1.7% 7.6% 0.22× 58.58
0-2 4.0% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.57
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.58
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.7% 2.29× 58.59
1-3 3.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.68× 58.57
1-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 2.00× 58.58
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.84× 58.57
2-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.33× 58.59
3-0 3.7% 1.7% 3.9% 0.44× 58.57
3-2 4.1% 1.7% 2.7% 0.64× 58.57
3-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.0% 1.68× 58.58
3-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.3% 4.89× 58.59
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.03× 58.58
4-1 2.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.09× 58.58
4-2 1.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.95× 58.58
4-3 0.9% 1.7% 0.4% 4.71× 58.59
4-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.1% 16.64× 58.59
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic leading at HT (DNB) 59.3% 57.8% 56.8% 1.02× 1.73
Ferencvaros leading at HT (DNB) 40.7% 42.2% 43.2% 0.98× 2.37
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or Ferencvaros (12) 81.3% 80.7% 74.0% 1.09× 1.24
Celtic or draw (1X) 66.6% 69.6% 70.7% 0.98× 1.44
Ferencvaros or draw (X2) 52.1% 52.5% 55.2% 0.95× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw at HT 74.6% 74.7% 74.2% 1.01× 1.34
Ferencvaros or draw at HT 63.0% 62.2% 66.0% 0.94× 1.61
Celtic or Ferencvaros at HT 62.4% 62.2% 59.7% 1.04× 1.61
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or draw (1UP) 66.6% 75.9% 74.2% 1.02× 1.32
Ferencvaros or draw (1UP) 52.8% 58.8% 63.8% 0.92× 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic or Ferencvaros in 2nd half 70.0% 73.7% 67.4% 1.09× 1.36
Celtic or draw in 2nd half 69.0% 65.6% 70.3% 0.93× 1.53
Ferencvaros or draw in 2nd half 60.9% 63.9% 62.3% 1.03× 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 58.6% 58.4% 58.8% 0.99× 1.71
Neither half drawn 41.4% 41.6% 41.2% 1.01× 2.40
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (DNB) 58.9% 58.2% 60.5% 0.96× 1.72
Ferencvaros (DNB) 41.1% 41.8% 39.5% 1.06× 2.39
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score first 54.3% 54.3% 51.4% 1.06× 1.84
Ferencvaros to score first 44.1% 41.7% 42.8% 0.98× 2.40
No goal scored 1.6% 4.3% 5.9% 0.73× 23.33
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 63.1% 56.5% 52.2% 1.08× 1.77
Not both teams to score 36.9% 43.5% 47.8% 0.91× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 55.2% 47.1% 40.1% 1.18× 2.12
Not both score & under 2.5 27.6% 33.6% 38.1% 0.88× 2.97
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.4% 9.7% 0.86× 11.96
Both score & under 2.5 7.9% 8.4% 12.1% 0.69× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 76.0% 80.0% 86.1% 0.93× 1.25
Both teams to score 2+ 24.0% 20.0% 13.9% 1.44× 5.00
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 62.4% 66.1% 70.3% 0.94× 1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half 37.6% 33.9% 29.7% 1.14× 2.95
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 47.6% 53.8% 57.9% 0.93× 1.86
Both score 2nd half only 28.2% 26.1% 23.7% 1.10× 3.84
Both score 1st half only 14.8% 10.5% 12.4% 0.85× 9.50
Both score in both halves 9.4% 6.8% 6.0% 1.13× 14.81
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 75.9% 81.6% 81.6% 1.00× 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 24.1% 18.4% 18.4% 1.00× 5.44
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 63.2% 59.0% 59.0% 1.00× 1.70
A half without a goal 36.8% 41.0% 41.0% 1.00× 2.44
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.0% 35.0% 45.9% 0.76× 2.86
4-6 goals 37.2% 35.0% 25.8% 1.35× 2.86
0-1 goals 17.6% 20.2% 26.3% 0.77× 4.94
7+ goals 5.2% 7.6% 2.0% 3.76× 13.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros to score exactly 1 33.6% 33.9% 35.2% 0.96× 2.95
Ferencvaros to score exactly 2 25.0% 27.4% 20.5% 1.34× 3.65
Ferencvaros to score exactly 0 22.6% 22.4% 32.5% 0.69× 4.47
Ferencvaros to score 3+ 18.8% 19.6% 11.8% 1.66× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score exactly 1 29.3% 26.5% 33.8% 0.78× 3.77
Celtic to score 3+ 27.8% 26.5% 19.0% 1.39× 3.77
Celtic to score exactly 2 26.9% 26.5% 24.2% 1.09× 3.77
Celtic to score exactly 0 16.0% 18.9% 23.0% 0.82× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 37.6% 37.8% 40.3% 0.94× 2.65
Celtic leading at HT 37.0% 37.8% 34.0% 1.11× 2.65
Ferencvaros leading at HT 25.4% 25.3% 25.8% 0.98× 3.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic -1: 2 52.1% 52.1% 1.92
Celtic -1: 1 25.1% 26.5% 3.77
Celtic -1: X 22.8% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (0:1) 52.1% 51.2% 55.2% 0.93× 1.96
Celtic (0:1) 25.1% 27.0% 21.7% 1.24× 3.71
Draw (0:1) 22.8% 24.3% 23.0% 1.05× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (0:2) 74.9% 75.6% 78.3% 0.97× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 13.9% 11.0% 12.4% 0.89× 9.08
Celtic (0:2) 11.2% 11.0% 9.3% 1.18× 9.09
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (0:3) 88.8% 90.8% 90.7% 1.00× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.0% 5.8% 5.7% 1.01× 17.24
Celtic (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 41.95
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (0:4) 95.8% 98.1% 96.4% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.9% 1.2% 2.4% 0.51× 83.14
Celtic (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.01× 83.32
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (1:0) 66.6% 69.8% 70.7% 0.99× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 18.9% 17.0% 17.1% 1.00× 5.87
Ferencvaros (1:0) 14.6% 12.8% 12.2% 1.05× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic (2:0) 85.4% 88.3% 87.8% 1.01× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 9.1% 6.5% 7.6% 0.85× 15.47
Ferencvaros (2:0) 5.4% 6.4% 4.6% 1.39× 15.51
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 52.1% 50.3% 48.5% 1.04× 1.99
1st half highest scoring 28.8% 26.5% 26.3% 1.01× 3.77
Halves equal 19.1% 19.0% 25.2% 0.75× 5.27
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to concede 77.4% 75.9% 67.5% 1.12× 1.32
Celtic clean sheet 22.6% 24.1% 32.5% 0.74× 4.14
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic clean sheet in 1st half 55.1% 62.8% 59.1% 1.06× 1.59
Celtic to concede in 1st half 44.9% 37.2% 40.9% 0.91× 2.69
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic under 3.5 goals 88.6% 87.2% 93.1% 0.94× 1.15
Celtic over 0.5 goals 84.0% 82.2% 77.0% 1.07× 1.22
Celtic under 2.5 goals 72.2% 74.2% 81.0% 0.92× 1.35
Celtic over 1.5 goals 54.7% 53.3% 43.2% 1.23× 1.88
Celtic under 1.5 goals 45.3% 46.7% 56.8% 0.82× 2.14
Celtic over 2.5 goals 27.8% 25.8% 19.0% 1.35× 3.88
Celtic under 0.5 goals 16.0% 17.8% 23.0% 0.78× 5.60
Celtic over 3.5 goals 11.4% 12.8% 6.9% 1.86× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic under 1.5 in 1st half 81.3% 84.6% 85.8% 0.99× 1.18
Celtic under 0.5 in 1st half 45.4% 50.9% 51.7% 0.98× 1.97
Celtic over 0.5 in 1st half 54.6% 49.1% 48.3% 1.02× 2.04
Celtic over 1.5 in 1st half 18.7% 15.4% 14.2% 1.09× 6.48
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros (home no bet) 64.2% 60.2% 53.0% 1.14× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 35.8% 39.8% 47.0% 0.85× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic even goals 51.3% 50.6% 52.3% 0.97× 1.98
Celtic odd goals 48.7% 49.4% 47.7% 1.03× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 24.7% 24.3% 29.2% 0.83× 4.12
HT 1-0 20.1% 24.2% 20.8% 1.16× 4.14
HT 0-1 15.3% 18.8% 16.4% 1.15× 5.31
HT 1-1 11.4% 11.0% 10.2% 1.08× 9.06
HT 2-0 7.8% 7.1% 7.1% 0.99× 14.10
Any other HT score 6.7% 7.1% 4.7% 1.49× 14.11
HT 2-1 4.6% 2.2% 3.3% 0.69× 44.57
HT 0-2 4.4% 2.2% 4.8% 0.46× 44.59
HT 1-2 3.5% 2.2% 2.7% 0.82× 44.66
HT 2-2 1.4% 2.2% 0.9% 2.55× 44.83
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic at HT / Celtic at FT 29.0% 26.7% 25.9% 1.03× 3.74
Ferencvaros at HT / Ferencvaros at FT 17.8% 16.8% 17.3% 0.97× 5.95
Draw at HT / Celtic at FT 15.8% 16.8% 14.7% 1.14× 5.96
Draw at HT / Ferencvaros at FT 12.8% 12.7% 11.6% 1.10× 7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.0% 6.1% 14.1% 0.43× 16.52
Celtic at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 5.1% 1.17× 16.64
Ferencvaros at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.4% 5.6% 0.61× 29.10
Ferencvaros at HT / Celtic at FT 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 1.17× 29.16
Celtic at HT / Ferencvaros at FT 2.8% 3.4% 3.0% 1.14× 29.17
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to score last 54.2% 52.0% 51.3% 1.01× 1.92
Ferencvaros to score last 44.2% 40.2% 42.8% 0.94× 2.49
No goal scored 1.6% 4.3% 5.9% 0.73× 23.33
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 98.4% 95.6% 94.1% 1.02× 1.05
Celtic to lead by 1 at any time 64.9% 61.6% 60.0% 1.03× 1.62
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 54.9% 50.6% 48.3% 1.05× 1.98
Ferencvaros to lead by 1 at any time 52.8% 50.6% 50.3% 1.01× 1.98
Celtic to lead by 2 at any time 33.4% 29.5% 28.4% 1.04× 3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.1% 19.6% 19.5% 1.01× 5.10
Ferencvaros to lead by 2 at any time 22.0% 19.6% 20.2% 0.97× 5.10
Celtic to lead by 3 at any time 14.4% 10.5% 12.2% 0.86× 9.53
Ferencvaros to lead by 3 at any time 7.7% 6.5% 7.3% 0.89× 15.31
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.4% 87.4% 86.8% 1.01× 1.14
2-6 goals 77.2% 78.6% 71.7% 1.10× 1.27
1-4 goals 74.2% 72.4% 78.8% 0.92× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.5% 72.4% 68.1% 1.06× 1.38
3-6 goals 59.3% 59.2% 47.8% 1.24× 1.69
2-4 goals 58.3% 59.2% 60.1% 0.99× 1.69
1-3 goals 55.9% 59.2% 64.6% 0.92× 1.69
3-5 goals 52.5% 53.1% 44.2% 1.20× 1.88
3-4 goals 40.4% 43.6% 36.2% 1.20× 2.29
2-3 goals 40.0% 39.2% 45.9% 0.85× 2.55
4-6 goals 37.2% 39.2% 25.8% 1.52× 2.55
1-2 goals 33.9% 35.4% 42.6% 0.83× 2.83
4-5 goals 30.5% 35.4% 22.2% 1.59× 2.83
5-6 goals 18.9% 18.6% 11.6% 1.60× 5.37
7+ goals 5.2% 8.7% 2.0% 4.33× 11.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic never behind 45.5% 57.0% 49.7% 1.15× 1.76
Ferencvaros never behind 33.5% 35.5% 40.0% 0.89× 2.82
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 46.1% 50.8% 49.8% 1.02× 1.97
Odd number of goals 53.9% 49.2% 50.2% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.5% 51.5% 53.6% 0.96× 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.5% 48.5% 46.4% 1.05× 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd goals in 2nd half 50.3% 52.0% 48.9% 1.06× 1.92
Even goals in 2nd half 49.7% 48.0% 51.1% 0.94× 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 98.4% 95.5% 92.4% 1.03× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 88.0% 87.7% 94.4% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 82.4% 82.4% 73.7% 1.12× 1.21
Under 4.5 goals 75.9% 77.4% 86.4% 0.90× 1.29
Over 2.5 goals 64.5% 61.8% 49.8% 1.24× 1.62
Under 3.5 goals 57.6% 58.8% 72.2% 0.82× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 42.4% 41.2% 27.8% 1.48× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 35.5% 38.2% 50.2% 0.76× 2.62
Over 4.5 goals 24.1% 22.6% 13.6% 1.66× 4.42
Under 1.5 goals 17.6% 17.6% 26.3% 0.67× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 12.0% 12.3% 5.6% 2.19× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 1.6% 4.5% 7.6% 0.59× 22.23
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 94.4% 92.5% 97.9% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 86.4% 86.7% 93.9% 0.92× 1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 78.6% 75.9% 65.5% 1.16× 1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 70.5% 72.6% 84.1% 0.86× 1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.4% 51.8% 35.7% 1.45× 1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.6% 48.2% 64.3% 0.75× 2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 29.5% 27.4% 15.9% 1.73× 3.65
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 21.4% 24.1% 34.5% 0.70× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 13.6% 13.3% 6.1% 2.17× 7.53
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 5.6% 7.5% 2.1% 3.60× 13.28
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 83.7% 86.5% 88.5% 0.98× 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 75.3% 78.6% 70.8% 1.11× 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 60.1% 63.6% 66.3% 0.96× 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 39.9% 36.4% 33.7% 1.08× 2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half 24.7% 21.4% 29.2% 0.73× 4.67
Over 2.5 in 1st half 16.3% 13.5% 11.5% 1.17× 7.40
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 85.3% 82.3% 1.04× 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 69.4% 67.3% 77.6% 0.87× 1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 57.0% 54.9% 49.7% 1.10× 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 43.0% 45.1% 50.3% 0.90× 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 30.6% 32.8% 22.4% 1.46× 3.05
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 14.7% 17.7% 0.83× 6.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros not to score in both halves 73.5% 74.3% 77.6% 0.96× 1.35
Celtic not to score in both halves 64.6% 63.6% 70.4% 0.90× 1.57
Celtic to score in both halves 35.4% 36.4% 29.6% 1.23× 2.75
Ferencvaros to score in both halves 26.5% 25.7% 22.4% 1.15× 3.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 63.1% 60.2% 52.2% 1.15× 1.66
Only Celtic scores 20.9% 22.3% 24.9% 0.90× 4.47
Only Ferencvaros scores 14.3% 11.0% 15.4% 0.71× 9.13
Neither team scores 1.6% 4.6% 7.6% 0.60× 21.82
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 22.0% 1.03× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 18.3% 17.5% 14.2% 1.23× 5.73
Exactly 2 goals 17.9% 17.5% 23.9% 0.73× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.9% 17.4% 18.7% 0.93× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 12.2% 12.1% 8.0% 1.51× 8.29
6 or more goals 12.0% 12.1% 5.6% 2.14× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 1.6% 4.4% 7.6% 0.58× 22.65
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 57.0% 53.3% 49.7% 1.07× 1.88
1 goal in 2nd half 29.3% 29.7% 32.6% 0.91× 3.37
No goals in 2nd half 13.7% 14.5% 17.7% 0.82× 6.88
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros not to win both halves 92.4% 94.0% 91.8% 1.02× 1.06
Celtic not to win both halves 85.9% 88.0% 86.7% 1.01× 1.14
Celtic to win both halves 14.1% 12.0% 13.3% 0.90× 8.33
Ferencvaros to win both halves 7.6% 6.0% 8.2% 0.74× 16.56
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic to win either half 62.0% 65.3% 58.4% 1.12× 1.53
Ferencvaros to win neither half 51.2% 54.7% 52.7% 1.04× 1.83
Ferencvaros to win either half 48.8% 45.3% 47.3% 0.96× 2.21
Celtic to win neither half 38.0% 34.7% 41.6% 0.83× 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Ferencvaros not to win to nil 85.7% 88.2% 84.6% 1.04× 1.13
Celtic not to win to nil 79.1% 78.0% 75.1% 1.04× 1.28
Celtic to win to nil 20.9% 22.0% 24.9% 0.88× 4.55
Ferencvaros to win to nil 14.3% 11.8% 15.4% 0.77× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Celtic by 1 22.8% 24.1% 23.0% 1.05× 4.14
Ferencvaros by 1 18.9% 16.9% 17.1% 0.99× 5.90
Draw 18.7% 16.9% 26.0% 0.65× 5.90
Celtic by 2 13.9% 11.8% 12.4% 0.95× 8.46
Celtic by 3+ 11.2% 11.8% 9.3% 1.27× 8.47
Ferencvaros by 2 9.1% 7.2% 7.6% 0.96× 13.80
Ferencvaros by 3+ 5.4% 7.2% 4.6% 1.56× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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