Cesena v Mantova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Cesena

09:00

Mantova

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 5h before kick-off

Cesena win

30.1%

model 33.0%

Draw

29.3%

model 27.4%

Mantova win

40.6%

model 39.7%

302941

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.8%
1-2 8.8%
2-1 8.0%
0-0 6.7%
0-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.8%	Under 2.5	43.2%
BTTS yes	61.0%	BTTS no	39.0%
Cesena 1+	75.5%	Cesena 2+	41.0%
Mantova 1+	78.9%	Mantova 2+	46.1%

Expected goals 1.41 – 1.56. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

48/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

95%

★ Best pick

2-6 goals

Multi goal · usually 72%

78.9% fair odds 1.27

moderate signal · 2095 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Mantova (0:2)

Handicap 0:2 · usually 81%

83.2% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 390 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Mantova carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1408.
Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Mantova have an estimated 40.6% win probability, against 30.1% for Cesena and 29.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.41 for Cesena and 1.56 for Mantova.

Why Cesena

Nothing in the data singles out Cesena.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.41 to 1.56. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Mantova can win

Mantova carry the stronger rating, 1503 Elo against 1408. Form is good: 2.40 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Cesena, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Mantova, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cesena: 45% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 17.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Mantova: 52% possession, 14.6 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Mantova are the model's most likely outcome at 40.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.8%. Confidence 48/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	332740	1.41–1.56	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	382735	1.58–1.52	1-1 12%	60%	63%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to win	38.0%	36.4%	42.7%	0.85×	2.75
Mantova to win	35.3%	36.4%	25.4%	1.43×	2.75
Draw	26.7%	27.9%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena & both teams score	22.1%	21.9%	18.8%	1.17×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	20.7%	21.9%	23.0%	0.95×	4.57
Mantova & both teams score	20.7%	21.9%	12.3%	1.78×	4.57
Cesena & not both score	16.0%	17.9%	24.0%	0.75×	5.58
Mantova & not both score	14.6%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	5.9%	8.4%	9.1%	0.92×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena & over 1.5	32.3%	30.9%	31.7%	0.97×	3.24
Mantova & over 1.5	29.9%	26.0%	18.8%	1.39×	3.84
Cesena & over 2.5	26.7%	26.0%	24.3%	1.07×	3.84
Mantova & over 2.5	24.7%	21.7%	15.0%	1.44×	4.62
Cesena & under 3.5	22.9%	21.7%	32.0%	0.68×	4.62
Mantova & under 3.5	21.5%	21.7%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	20.7%	21.7%	23.0%	0.94×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	18.1%	18.0%	23.8%	0.76×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.1%	18.0%	23.8%	0.76×	5.56
Cesena & over 3.5	15.2%	18.0%	10.8%	1.67×	5.56
Mantova & over 3.5	13.8%	12.9%	5.6%	2.29×	7.77
Cesena & under 2.5	11.3%	12.9%	18.5%	0.69×	7.77
Mantova & under 2.5	10.6%	12.9%	10.5%	1.22×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	8.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	8.5%	7.9%	8.4%	0.94×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	5.9%	7.9%	9.1%	0.86×	12.70
Cesena & under 1.5	5.7%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.70
Mantova & under 1.5	5.4%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (1UP)	57.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Mantova (1UP)	54.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (2UP)	38.0%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Mantova (2UP)	35.3%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	33.7%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Mantova to win 2nd half	33.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Cesena to win 2nd half	32.9%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	93.2%	0.99×	1.09
Mantova (+1.5)	80.4%	82.4%	80.5%	1.02×	1.21
Cesena (+0.5)	64.7%	62.9%	74.6%	0.84×	1.59
Mantova (+0.5)	62.0%	62.9%	57.3%	1.10×	1.59
Cesena (-0.5)	38.0%	37.1%	42.7%	0.87×	2.70
Mantova (-0.5)	35.3%	37.1%	25.4%	1.46×	2.70
Cesena (-1.5)	19.6%	17.6%	19.5%	0.90×	5.68
Cesena (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to concede	79.4%	79.1%	77.7%	1.02×	1.27
Mantova clean sheet	20.6%	20.9%	22.3%	0.94×	4.77

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to concede in 1st half	49.4%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Mantova clean sheet in 1st half	50.6%	49.2%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 6.5 corners	81.1%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Mantova over 2.5 corners	76.2%	75.8%	—	—	1.32
Mantova under 5.5 corners	70.5%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Mantova over 3.5 corners	59.9%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Mantova under 4.5 corners	56.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Mantova over 4.5 corners	43.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Mantova under 3.5 corners	40.1%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Mantova over 5.5 corners	29.6%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Mantova under 2.5 corners	23.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
Mantova over 6.5 corners	18.9%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 3.5 goals	93.2%	92.3%	98.2%	0.94×	1.08
Mantova under 2.5 goals	80.4%	81.4%	90.9%	0.90×	1.23
Mantova over 0.5 goals	78.1%	76.2%	67.0%	1.14×	1.31
Mantova under 1.5 goals	55.2%	59.5%	69.3%	0.86×	1.68
Mantova over 1.5 goals	44.8%	40.5%	30.7%	1.32×	2.47
Mantova under 0.5 goals	21.9%	23.8%	33.0%	0.72×	4.21
Mantova over 2.5 goals	19.6%	18.6%	9.1%	2.04×	5.37
Mantova over 3.5 goals	6.8%	7.7%	1.8%	4.38×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova under 1.5 in 1st half	87.6%	89.1%	—	—	1.12
Mantova under 0.5 in 1st half	54.5%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Mantova over 0.5 in 1st half	45.5%	43.7%	—	—	2.29
Mantova over 1.5 in 1st half	12.4%	10.9%	—	—	9.14

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (away no bet)	58.8%	57.5%	57.1%	1.01×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.2%	42.5%	42.9%	0.99×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova even goals	52.4%	52.8%	55.6%	0.95×	1.89
Mantova odd goals	47.6%	47.2%	44.4%	1.06×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.0%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	20.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	71.8%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	28.2%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.1%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Cesena to score 2+ in a row	36.6%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Mantova to score 2+ in a row	34.5%	29.1%	—	—	3.44
Either team to score 3+ in a row	23.5%	19.6%	—	—	5.12
Cesena to score 3+ in a row	12.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.21
Mantova to score 3+ in a row	11.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.23

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Cesena corners (+2.5)	81.5%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
Mantova corners (+3.5)	78.1%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Cesena corners (+1.5)	73.1%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Mantova corners (+2.5)	69.3%	66.8%	—	—	1.50
Mantova corners (+1.5)	59.0%	56.8%	—	—	1.76
Cesena corners (-1.5)	41.0%	43.2%	—	—	2.32
Cesena corners (-2.5)	30.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
Mantova corners (-1.5)	26.9%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Cesena corners (-3.5)	21.9%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Mantova corners (-2.5)	18.5%	20.0%	—	—	5.00
Mantova corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.32

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.1%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
9-11 corners	30.0%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
12+ corners	27.9%	31.8%	—	—	3.15

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	79.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Under 11.5 corners	72.1%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.6%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Under 10.5 corners	63.2%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Over 8.5 corners	57.9%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.0%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Over 9.5 corners	47.0%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Under 8.5 corners	42.1%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.8%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Under 7.5 corners	31.4%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Over 11.5 corners	27.9%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	20.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.28

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.2%	11.5%	14.8%	0.78×	8.73
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
1-2	8.2%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.48
0-0	5.9%	7.4%	9.1%	0.81×	13.48
0-1	5.4%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.48
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	3.9%	1.91×	13.48
1-0	5.7%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.48
2-0	5.6%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
2-2	6.5%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.48
0-3	2.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.47
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.48
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.47
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.48
2-3	3.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.47
2-4	1.2%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.48
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.47
3-1	4.5%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.46
3-2	3.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.47
3-3	1.7%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.48
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.4%	4.55×	58.49
4-0	1.2%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.48
4-1	1.8%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.48
4-2	1.4%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.48
4-3	0.7%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
Any other score	4.2%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena leading at HT (DNB)	53.8%	56.0%	—	—	1.79
Mantova leading at HT (DNB)	46.2%	44.0%	—	—	2.28

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or Mantova (12)	73.3%	72.1%	68.0%	1.06×	1.39
Cesena or draw (1X)	64.7%	63.6%	74.6%	0.85×	1.57
Mantova or draw (X2)	62.0%	63.6%	57.3%	1.11×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw at HT	72.6%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Mantova or draw at HT	68.1%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Cesena or Mantova at HT	59.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena or draw (1UP)	64.7%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Mantova or draw (1UP)	62.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova or draw in 2nd half	67.1%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Cesena or draw in 2nd half	66.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Cesena or Mantova in 2nd half	66.3%	65.5%	—	—	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	59.1%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	40.9%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (DNB)	51.9%	50.9%	62.7%	0.81×	1.96
Mantova (DNB)	48.1%	49.1%	37.3%	1.32×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score first	48.0%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Mantova to score first	46.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	5.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.5%	56.5%	53.8%	1.05×	1.77
Not both teams to score	36.5%	43.5%	46.2%	0.94×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	51.2%	47.0%	39.2%	1.20×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	27.9%	33.6%	37.9%	0.89×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	12.2%	12.3%	14.8%	0.84×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.7%	8.4%	8.4%	1.00×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.0%	80.0%	86.0%	0.93×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	21.0%	20.0%	14.0%	1.43×	4.99

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.0%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	36.0%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.3%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	28.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.7%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	8.0%	6.8%	—	—	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.3%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	61.3%	58.8%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	38.7%	41.2%	—	—	2.43

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.4%	47.4%	48.8%	0.97×	2.11
4-6 goals	33.7%	30.8%	23.3%	1.32×	3.25
0-1 goals	17.0%	20.2%	26.8%	0.75×	4.96
7+ goals	3.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.34×	54.40

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova to score exactly 1	33.3%	33.8%	36.4%	0.93×	2.96
Mantova to score exactly 2	25.3%	27.4%	21.7%	1.27×	3.65
Mantova to score exactly 0	21.9%	22.4%	33.0%	0.68×	4.46
Mantova to score 3+	19.6%	19.6%	9.1%	2.14×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score exactly 1	32.5%	32.6%	35.9%	0.91×	3.06
Cesena to score exactly 2	25.7%	26.5%	26.0%	1.02×	3.77
Cesena to score 3+	21.2%	23.2%	16.0%	1.45×	4.30
Cesena to score exactly 0	20.6%	23.2%	22.3%	1.04×	4.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Cesena leading at HT	31.9%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Mantova leading at HT	27.4%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena -1: 2	62.0%	62.5%	—	—	1.60
Cesena -1: 1	19.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71
Cesena -1: X	18.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:1)	62.0%	61.4%	57.3%	1.07×	1.63
Cesena (0:1)	19.6%	17.8%	19.5%	0.91×	5.62
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	17.8%	23.3%	0.76×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:2)	80.4%	82.8%	80.5%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.7%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.12
Cesena (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	6.8%	1.14×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.2%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.20
Cesena (0:3)	2.6%	2.4%	2.3%	1.05×	42.15

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (0:4)	97.4%	98.1%	97.7%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.9%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	83.46
Cesena (0:4)	0.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	83.60

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (1:0)	64.7%	65.1%	74.6%	0.87×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	17.7%	17.0%	15.6%	1.09×	5.87
Mantova (1:0)	17.6%	17.0%	9.9%	1.72×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena (2:0)	82.4%	84.5%	90.1%	0.94×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.8%	10.4%	6.5%	1.59×	9.65
Mantova (2:0)	6.8%	6.5%	3.5%	1.84×	15.49

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	48.6%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to concede	78.1%	76.0%	67.0%	1.13×	1.32
Cesena clean sheet	21.9%	24.0%	33.0%	0.73×	4.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena clean sheet in 1st half	54.5%	56.3%	—	—	1.78
Cesena to concede in 1st half	45.5%	43.7%	—	—	2.29

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena over 2.5 corners	83.2%	81.3%	—	—	1.23
Cesena under 6.5 corners	72.0%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Cesena over 3.5 corners	69.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Cesena under 5.5 corners	59.8%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Cesena over 4.5 corners	54.5%	53.1%	—	—	1.89
Cesena under 4.5 corners	45.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Cesena over 5.5 corners	40.2%	42.6%	—	—	2.35
Cesena under 3.5 corners	30.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Cesena over 6.5 corners	28.0%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
Cesena under 2.5 corners	16.8%	18.7%	—	—	5.36

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 3.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	95.9%	0.96×	1.08
Cesena over 0.5 goals	79.4%	77.8%	77.7%	1.00×	1.29
Cesena under 2.5 goals	78.8%	77.8%	84.0%	0.93×	1.29
Cesena under 1.5 goals	53.1%	53.3%	58.1%	0.92×	1.88
Cesena over 1.5 goals	46.9%	46.7%	41.9%	1.12×	2.14
Cesena over 2.5 goals	21.2%	22.2%	16.0%	1.39×	4.50
Cesena under 0.5 goals	20.6%	22.2%	22.3%	1.00×	4.50
Cesena over 3.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	4.1%	1.88×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Cesena over 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	50.9%	—	—	1.96
Cesena under 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Cesena over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.64

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova (home no bet)	57.0%	56.7%	44.2%	1.28×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	43.0%	43.3%	55.8%	0.78×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena even goals	52.1%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
Cesena odd goals	47.9%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	27.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.47
HT 1-0	18.5%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	16.5%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	11.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 0-2	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-1	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.33
HT 1-2	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.36
HT 2-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.52

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena at HT / Cesena at FT	22.8%	21.8%	—	—	4.58
Mantova at HT / Mantova at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	15.3%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Draw at HT / Mantova at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Cesena at FT	12.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Cesena at HT / Draw at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Mantova at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Cesena at HT / Mantova at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Mantova at HT / Cesena at FT	2.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.86

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to score last	48.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Mantova to score last	46.1%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	5.9%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.1%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Cesena to lead by 1 at any time	57.1%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Mantova to lead by 1 at any time	54.8%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	51.4%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Cesena to lead by 2 at any time	27.0%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Mantova to lead by 2 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.4%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Cesena to lead by 3 at any time	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Mantova to lead by 3 at any time	9.1%	6.7%	—	—	14.98

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena most corners	52.1%	52.9%	—	—	1.89
Mantova most corners	36.9%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
Corners level	11.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.7%	83.5%	87.2%	0.96×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.1%	78.6%	72.0%	1.09×	1.27
1-4 goals	73.9%	72.4%	82.1%	0.88×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.5%	72.4%	69.6%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.8%	63.4%	64.5%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	56.6%	59.2%	66.5%	0.89×	1.69
3-6 goals	56.0%	59.2%	46.2%	1.28×	1.69
3-5 goals	50.5%	53.2%	43.8%	1.21×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.4%	48.7%	48.8%	1.00×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.7%	39.2%	38.7%	1.01×	2.55
1-2 goals	34.2%	35.4%	43.6%	0.81×	2.83
4-6 goals	33.7%	35.4%	23.3%	1.52×	2.83
4-5 goals	28.1%	30.3%	20.9%	1.45×	3.31
5-6 goals	16.3%	18.6%	7.6%	2.44×	5.37
7+ goals	3.9%	2.6%	1.4%	1.86×	39.15

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena never behind	39.3%	44.8%	—	—	2.23
Mantova never behind	37.0%	44.7%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.1%	50.8%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.9%	49.2%	53.3%	0.92×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.3%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.7%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.1%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	90.6%	92.3%	96.2%	0.96×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	83.0%	82.4%	73.2%	1.13×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	79.8%	77.4%	91.1%	0.85×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	62.5%	61.8%	75.5%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	59.9%	58.9%	47.4%	1.24×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	40.1%	41.1%	52.6%	0.78×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	37.5%	38.2%	24.5%	1.56×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	20.2%	22.6%	8.9%	2.55×	4.42
Under 1.5 goals	17.0%	17.6%	26.8%	0.66×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	9.4%	7.7%	3.8%	2.06×	12.91
Under 0.5 goals	5.9%	7.7%	9.1%	0.85×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	95.9%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	89.4%	86.8%	96.0%	0.90×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	77.8%	75.9%	63.9%	1.19×	1.32
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	75.6%	75.9%	89.5%	0.85×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	51.7%	51.8%	68.2%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	48.3%	48.2%	31.8%	1.51×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	24.4%	24.1%	10.5%	2.29×	4.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	22.2%	24.1%	36.1%	0.67×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	10.6%	13.2%	4.0%	3.35×	7.55
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	4.1%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.10

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.0%	88.9%	—	—	1.13
Over 0.5 in 1st half	72.2%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	62.9%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	37.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.75
Under 0.5 in 1st half	27.8%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	14.0%	11.1%	—	—	9.03

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.2%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	72.7%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	54.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	45.4%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	27.3%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	16.8%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to score in both halves	72.8%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Cesena not to score in both halves	70.7%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Cesena to score in both halves	29.3%	26.3%	—	—	3.80
Mantova to score in both halves	27.2%	26.2%	—	—	3.82

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	63.5%	60.3%	53.8%	1.12×	1.66
Only Cesena scores	16.0%	16.1%	24.0%	0.67×	6.22
Only Mantova scores	14.6%	10.9%	13.3%	0.83×	9.14
Neither team scores	5.9%	7.2%	9.1%	0.79×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	25.9%	0.87×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.3%	17.4%	15.8%	1.11×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	11.1%	12.1%	17.8%	0.68×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	10.8%	12.1%	5.3%	2.30×	8.28
6 or more goals	9.4%	7.6%	3.8%	2.04×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.9%	7.6%	9.1%	0.84×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	54.6%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	28.6%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	16.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to win both halves	90.6%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Cesena not to win both halves	89.3%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Cesena to win both halves	10.7%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Mantova to win both halves	9.4%	6.1%	—	—	16.39

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cesena to win either half	54.1%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Mantova to win either half	51.4%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Mantova to win neither half	48.6%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
Cesena to win neither half	45.9%	45.0%	—	—	2.22

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Mantova not to win to nil	85.4%	88.2%	86.7%	1.02×	1.13
Cesena not to win to nil	84.0%	83.0%	76.0%	1.09×	1.20
Cesena to win to nil	16.0%	17.0%	24.0%	0.71×	5.89
Mantova to win to nil	14.6%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	26.7%	27.8%	32.0%	0.87×	3.59
Cesena by 1	18.5%	16.9%	23.3%	0.73×	5.91
Mantova by 1	17.7%	16.9%	15.6%	1.08×	5.91
Cesena by 2	11.7%	11.8%	12.9%	0.92×	8.48
Mantova by 2	10.8%	11.8%	6.5%	1.81×	8.48
Cesena by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	6.8%	1.07×	13.78
Mantova by 3+	6.8%	7.3%	3.5%	2.07×	13.78