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CF Montréal v Nashville SC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
CF Montréal win
23.1%
model 21.3%
Draw
23.1%
model 24.4%
Nashville SC win
53.7%
model 54.3%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.6%
  2. 0-1 10.4%
  3. 1-2 9.8%
  4. 0-2 9.6%
  5. 0-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.552.8% Under 2.547.2%
BTTS yes53.6% BTTS no46.4%
CF Montréal 1+64.1% CF Montréal 2+27.3%
Nashville SC 1+82.9% Nashville SC 2+52.7%

Expected goals 1.02 – 1.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
53/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
94%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Nashville SC carry the stronger rating, 1687 Elo against 1402.
  • Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Nashville SC have an estimated 53.7% win probability, against 23.1% for the draw and 23.1% for CF Montréal. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.02 for CF Montréal and 1.77 for Nashville SC.

Why CF Montréal

Nothing in the data singles out CF Montréal.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.1%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Nashville SC can win

Nashville SC carry the stronger rating, 1687 Elo against 1402. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for CF Montréal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Nashville SC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

CF Montréal: 50% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Nashville SC: 52% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 12.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Nashville SC are the model's most likely outcome at 53.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 53/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 0.91–1.92 0-2 11% 54% 51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to win 60.7% 58.1% 29.9% 1.94× 1.72
Draw 22.6% 24.4% 24.9% 0.98× 4.09
CF Montréal to win 16.7% 19.3% 45.4% 0.43× 5.17
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC & not both score 34.1% 29.7% 12.3% 2.43× 3.36
Nashville SC & both teams score 26.7% 25.2% 17.8% 1.42× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 16.2% 17.9% 19.1% 0.94× 5.58
CF Montréal & both teams score 8.4% 8.4% 24.4% 0.34× 11.92
CF Montréal & not both score 8.3% 8.4% 21.1% 0.40× 11.92
Draw & not both score 6.4% 8.4% 5.8% 1.43× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC & over 1.5 49.8% 45.2% 23.5% 1.93× 2.21
Nashville SC & over 2.5 38.9% 34.9% 20.3% 1.72× 2.86
Nashville SC & under 3.5 38.8% 34.9% 18.8% 1.86× 2.86
Nashville SC & over 3.5 22.0% 21.6% 11.2% 1.93× 4.62
Nashville SC & under 2.5 21.9% 21.6% 9.7% 2.22× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.1% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.2% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.56
CF Montréal & under 3.5 12.7% 12.9% 28.3% 0.46× 7.77
CF Montréal & over 1.5 11.8% 12.9% 37.1% 0.35× 7.77
Nashville SC & under 1.5 10.9% 12.9% 6.5% 1.97× 7.77
CF Montréal & over 2.5 9.4% 7.9% 30.9% 0.25× 12.70
CF Montréal & under 2.5 7.3% 7.9% 14.5% 0.54× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.4% 7.9% 5.8% 1.35× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.9% 0.88× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.4% 7.9% 8.9% 0.88× 12.70
CF Montréal & under 1.5 4.9% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.92
CF Montréal & over 3.5 4.0% 4.8% 17.2% 0.28× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (1UP) 72.8% 75.9% 1.32
CF Montréal (1UP) 34.2% 33.0% 3.03
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (2UP) 60.7% 67.5% 1.48
CF Montréal (2UP) 16.7% 17.4% 5.74
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to win 2nd half 51.5% 52.0% 1.92
2nd half drawn 32.1% 34.3% 2.92
CF Montréal to win 2nd half 16.4% 19.1% 5.25
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (+2.5) 98.6% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Nashville SC (+1.5) 94.4% 92.1% 76.7% 1.20× 1.09
Nashville SC (+0.5) 83.3% 82.4% 54.6% 1.51× 1.21
Nashville SC (-0.5) 60.7% 62.9% 29.9% 2.10× 1.59
CF Montréal (+0.5) 39.3% 37.1% 70.1% 0.53× 2.69
CF Montréal (-0.5) 16.7% 17.6% 45.4% 0.39× 5.68
CF Montréal (-1.5) 5.6% 7.9% 23.3% 0.34× 12.66
CF Montréal (-2.5) 1.4% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 26.96
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to concede 59.5% 62.8% 82.0% 0.77× 1.59
Nashville SC clean sheet 40.5% 37.2% 18.0% 2.07× 2.69
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC clean sheet in 1st half 67.8% 70.5% 1.42
Nashville SC to concede in 1st half 32.2% 29.5% 3.39
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC under 6.5 corners 79.5% 75.9% 1.32
Nashville SC over 2.5 corners 76.7% 75.9% 1.32
Nashville SC under 5.5 corners 68.8% 67.5% 1.48
Nashville SC over 3.5 corners 60.9% 61.8% 1.62
Nashville SC under 4.5 corners 55.0% 57.1% 1.75
Nashville SC over 4.5 corners 45.0% 42.9% 2.33
Nashville SC under 3.5 corners 39.1% 38.2% 2.62
Nashville SC over 5.5 corners 31.2% 32.5% 3.08
Nashville SC under 2.5 corners 23.3% 24.1% 4.15
Nashville SC over 6.5 corners 20.5% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC under 3.5 goals 87.1% 87.9% 93.9% 0.94× 1.14
Nashville SC over 0.5 goals 85.4% 87.9% 73.2% 1.20× 1.14
Nashville SC under 2.5 goals 69.8% 68.0% 83.3% 0.82× 1.47
Nashville SC over 1.5 goals 57.2% 59.6% 38.7% 1.54× 1.68
Nashville SC under 1.5 goals 42.8% 40.4% 61.3% 0.66× 2.47
Nashville SC over 2.5 goals 30.2% 32.0% 16.7% 1.91× 3.12
Nashville SC under 0.5 goals 14.6% 12.1% 26.8% 0.45× 8.25
Nashville SC over 3.5 goals 12.9% 12.1% 6.1% 1.99× 8.26
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC under 1.5 in 1st half 82.0% 83.2% 1.20
Nashville SC over 0.5 in 1st half 53.6% 55.9% 1.79
Nashville SC under 0.5 in 1st half 46.4% 44.1% 2.27
Nashville SC over 1.5 in 1st half 18.0% 16.8% 5.97
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 57.5% 57.5% 35.4% 1.63× 1.74
CF Montréal (away no bet) 42.5% 42.5% 64.6% 0.66× 2.36
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC even goals 51.1% 52.8% 53.6% 0.98× 1.90
Nashville SC odd goals 48.9% 47.2% 46.4% 1.02× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.0% 83.1% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 16.0% 16.9% 5.92
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 66.1% 68.4% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 33.9% 31.6% 3.16
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.2% 59.6% 1.68
Nashville SC to score 2+ in a row 50.1% 51.3% 1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row 25.3% 25.1% 3.99
Nashville SC to score 3+ in a row 22.5% 19.5% 5.13
CF Montréal to score 2+ in a row 15.4% 16.4% 6.11
CF Montréal to score 3+ in a row 3.0% 2.6% 38.55
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal corners (+3.5) 85.6% 84.5% 1.18
Nashville SC corners (+3.5) 80.6% 79.7% 1.25
CF Montréal corners (+2.5) 78.6% 74.9% 1.34
Nashville SC corners (+2.5) 72.4% 70.7% 1.41
CF Montréal corners (+1.5) 69.7% 65.8% 1.52
Nashville SC corners (+1.5) 62.6% 61.9% 1.62
CF Montréal corners (-1.5) 37.4% 38.1% 2.63
Nashville SC corners (-1.5) 30.3% 34.2% 2.92
CF Montréal corners (-2.5) 27.6% 29.3% 3.42
Nashville SC corners (-2.5) 21.4% 25.1% 3.98
CF Montréal corners (-3.5) 19.4% 20.3% 4.93
Nashville SC corners (-3.5) 14.4% 15.5% 6.45
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 44.0% 38.6% 2.59
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 26.8% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.4% 80.7% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 73.2% 72.7% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 66.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 64.6% 63.4% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 56.0% 57.7% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.7% 53.3% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 45.3% 46.7% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 44.0% 42.3% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 35.4% 36.6% 2.73
Under 7.5 corners 33.2% 32.3% 3.09
Over 11.5 corners 26.8% 27.3% 3.66
Over 12.5 corners 19.6% 19.3% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 10.9% 11.4% 6.5% 1.75× 8.74
0-2 10.9% 11.4% 3.3% 3.45× 8.74
1-1 10.7% 11.4% 10.3% 1.11× 8.74
1-2 9.9% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.47
0-3 7.0% 7.4% 1.8% 4.05× 13.47
0-0 6.4% 7.4% 5.8% 1.27× 13.47
1-3 6.3% 7.4% 3.4% 2.16× 13.47
1-0 4.9% 1.7% 8.4% 0.20× 58.50
2-1 4.7% 1.7% 9.9% 0.17× 58.50
Any other score 4.8% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.50
0-4 3.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.50
1-4 3.0% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.51
2-0 2.4% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.51
2-2 4.5% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.50
2-3 2.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.51
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.99× 58.52
3-0 0.7% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.52
3-1 1.4% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.52
3-2 1.4% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.52
3-3 0.9% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.52
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.49× 58.52
4-0 0.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.52
4-1 0.3% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.52
4-2 0.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.52
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.73× 58.52
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC leading at HT (DNB) 70.7% 71.3% 1.40
CF Montréal leading at HT (DNB) 29.3% 28.7% 3.49
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC or draw (X2) 83.3% 80.7% 54.6% 1.48× 1.24
CF Montréal or Nashville SC (12) 77.4% 75.6% 75.1% 1.01× 1.32
CF Montréal or draw (1X) 39.3% 41.9% 70.1% 0.60× 2.39
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC or draw at HT 82.9% 84.4% 1.19
CF Montréal or draw at HT 58.8% 56.6% 1.77
CF Montréal or Nashville SC at HT 58.3% 56.6% 1.77
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC or draw (1UP) 83.3% 88.5% 1.13
CF Montréal or draw (1UP) 39.3% 42.4% 2.36
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC or draw in 2nd half 83.6% 80.9% 1.24
CF Montréal or Nashville SC in 2nd half 67.9% 65.7% 1.52
CF Montréal or draw in 2nd half 48.5% 48.0% 2.08
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 59.9% 58.2% 1.72
Neither half drawn 40.1% 41.8% 2.39
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (DNB) 78.4% 74.6% 39.7% 1.88× 1.34
CF Montréal (DNB) 21.6% 25.4% 60.3% 0.42× 3.94
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to score first 63.7% 64.7% 1.55
CF Montréal to score first 30.0% 28.5% 3.51
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 51.3% 51.4% 61.1% 0.84× 1.94
Not both teams to score 48.7% 48.6% 38.9% 1.25× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 40.5% 41.6% 50.9% 0.82× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 35.6% 38.5% 29.9% 1.29× 2.60
Not both score & over 2.5 13.2% 12.3% 9.2% 1.34× 8.12
Both score & under 2.5 10.7% 12.3% 10.3% 1.19× 8.12
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 86.9% 85.7% 79.5% 1.08× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 13.1% 14.3% 20.5% 0.70× 6.97
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 72.3% 74.2% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 27.7% 25.8% 3.88
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 59.7% 59.7% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 23.0% 20.9% 4.78
Both score 1st half only 12.6% 10.6% 9.48
Both score in both halves 4.8% 5.0% 20.10
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 82.6% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 17.4% 17.2% 5.83
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 55.9% 57.3% 1.74
A half without a goal 44.1% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.4% 47.4% 42.5% 1.12× 2.11
4-6 goals 28.9% 26.5% 33.1% 0.80× 3.78
0-1 goals 22.2% 22.8% 20.5% 1.11× 4.38
7+ goals 2.5% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 54.99
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to score 3+ 30.2% 33.8% 16.7% 2.02× 2.96
Nashville SC to score exactly 1 28.1% 27.4% 34.6% 0.79× 3.65
Nashville SC to score exactly 2 27.0% 27.4% 22.1% 1.24× 3.65
Nashville SC to score exactly 0 14.6% 12.8% 26.8% 0.48× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to score exactly 1 36.6% 35.6% 31.0% 1.15× 2.81
CF Montréal to score exactly 0 40.5% 34.9% 18.0% 1.94× 2.87
CF Montréal to score exactly 2 16.6% 18.9% 26.0% 0.73× 5.30
CF Montréal to score 3+ 6.4% 10.3% 25.2% 0.41× 9.73
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 41.7% 43.4% 2.31
Nashville SC leading at HT 41.2% 43.4% 2.31
CF Montréal leading at HT 17.1% 15.6% 6.40
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC -1: 1 39.3% 37.4% 2.68
Nashville SC -1: 2 36.6% 37.3% 2.68
Nashville SC -1: X 24.2% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (0:1) 83.3% 77.7% 54.6% 1.42× 1.29
Draw (0:1) 11.1% 13.8% 22.2% 0.62× 7.23
CF Montréal (0:1) 5.6% 9.2% 23.3% 0.39× 10.91
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (0:2) 94.4% 90.9% 76.7% 1.18× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 4.2% 3.8% 12.8% 0.29× 26.49
CF Montréal (0:2) 1.4% 3.8% 10.5% 0.36× 26.65
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (0:3) 98.6% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.16
CF Montréal (0:3) 0.3% 2.4% 4.0% 0.59× 42.20
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (0:4) 99.7% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
CF Montréal (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.61
Draw (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (1:0) 39.3% 37.6% 70.1% 0.54× 2.66
Nashville SC (1:0) 36.6% 37.4% 13.2% 2.84× 2.68
Draw (1:0) 24.2% 21.8% 16.8% 1.29× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal (2:0) 63.4% 67.0% 86.8% 0.77× 1.49
Draw (2:0) 18.8% 15.7% 8.7% 1.81× 6.35
Nashville SC (2:0) 17.8% 15.7% 4.6% 3.43× 6.36
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.9% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.2% 26.5% 3.78
Halves equal 24.9% 24.3% 4.11
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to concede 85.4% 85.9% 73.2% 1.17× 1.16
CF Montréal clean sheet 14.6% 14.1% 26.8% 0.52× 7.11
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal to concede in 1st half 53.6% 55.9% 1.79
CF Montréal clean sheet in 1st half 46.4% 44.1% 2.27
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal over 2.5 corners 80.4% 80.9% 1.24
CF Montréal under 6.5 corners 75.0% 71.9% 1.39
CF Montréal over 3.5 corners 65.9% 66.7% 1.50
CF Montréal under 5.5 corners 63.5% 62.3% 1.61
CF Montréal over 4.5 corners 50.5% 52.8% 1.90
CF Montréal under 4.5 corners 49.5% 47.2% 2.12
CF Montréal over 5.5 corners 36.5% 37.7% 2.65
CF Montréal under 3.5 corners 34.1% 33.3% 3.00
CF Montréal over 6.5 corners 25.0% 28.1% 3.56
CF Montréal under 2.5 corners 19.6% 19.1% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal under 3.5 goals 98.6% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
CF Montréal under 2.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 74.8% 1.23× 1.08
CF Montréal under 1.5 goals 77.1% 77.7% 48.9% 1.59× 1.29
CF Montréal over 0.5 goals 59.5% 58.8% 82.0% 0.72× 1.70
CF Montréal under 0.5 goals 40.5% 41.2% 18.0% 2.29× 2.43
CF Montréal over 1.5 goals 22.9% 22.3% 51.1% 0.44× 4.49
CF Montréal over 2.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 25.2% 0.31× 12.93
CF Montréal over 3.5 goals 1.4% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.52
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal under 1.5 in 1st half 94.1% 95.5% 1.05
CF Montréal under 0.5 in 1st half 67.8% 69.0% 1.45
CF Montréal over 0.5 in 1st half 32.2% 31.0% 3.22
CF Montréal over 1.5 in 1st half 5.9% 4.5% 22.11
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC (home no bet) 72.9% 66.6% 54.6% 1.22× 1.50
Draw (home no bet) 27.1% 33.4% 45.4% 0.74× 2.99
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal even goals 58.2% 55.5% 51.0% 1.09× 1.80
CF Montréal odd goals 41.8% 44.5% 49.0% 0.91× 2.25
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.5% 32.1% 3.12
HT 0-1 24.1% 24.2% 4.13
HT 1-0 12.1% 11.0% 9.11
HT 1-1 9.5% 7.1% 14.14
HT 0-2 9.3% 7.1% 14.14
Any other HT score 5.0% 7.0% 14.21
HT 1-2 3.6% 2.3% 43.80
HT 2-0 2.4% 2.3% 43.89
HT 2-1 1.8% 2.3% 43.93
HT 2-2 0.7% 2.3% 44.02
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC at HT / Nashville SC at FT 36.1% 40.8% 2.45
Draw at HT / Nashville SC at FT 21.2% 21.7% 4.61
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.9% 12.7% 7.89
CF Montréal at HT / CF Montréal at FT 9.0% 6.0% 16.53
Draw at HT / CF Montréal at FT 6.6% 6.0% 16.61
CF Montréal at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.81
Nashville SC at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.83
CF Montréal at HT / Nashville SC at FT 3.4% 3.5% 28.85
Nashville SC at HT / CF Montréal at FT 1.1% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to score last 63.7% 62.3% 1.61
CF Montréal to score last 29.9% 27.3% 3.67
No goal scored 6.4% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.6% 92.6% 1.08
Nashville SC to lead by 1 at any time 72.8% 74.3% 1.35
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 52.2% 50.6% 1.97
Nashville SC to lead by 2 at any time 42.9% 39.2% 2.55
CF Montréal to lead by 1 at any time 34.2% 29.4% 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.6% 19.6% 5.11
Nashville SC to lead by 3 at any time 20.4% 19.5% 5.12
CF Montréal to lead by 2 at any time 9.5% 6.6% 15.13
CF Montréal to lead by 3 at any time 2.1% 1.6% 64.41
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal most corners 48.3% 46.9% 2.13
Nashville SC most corners 40.6% 43.5% 2.30
Corners level 11.1% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.0% 78.6% 73.1% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 75.3% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.1% 72.4% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.2% 63.4% 57.2% 1.11× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.2% 63.4% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
3-6 goals 51.2% 53.2% 55.9% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 47.0% 48.7% 48.9% 0.99× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.4% 48.7% 42.5% 1.15× 2.06
1-2 goals 39.9% 39.2% 34.4% 1.14× 2.55
3-4 goals 38.0% 39.2% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-6 goals 28.9% 30.2% 33.1% 0.91× 3.31
4-5 goals 24.7% 24.5% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
5-6 goals 13.1% 14.9% 17.2% 0.87× 6.72
7+ goals 2.5% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.40
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC never behind 59.5% 62.8% 1.59
CF Montréal never behind 20.9% 24.1% 4.15
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.9% 50.8% 50.2% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.1% 49.2% 49.8% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.1% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.9% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 93.6% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.3% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 84.4% 82.4% 78.8% 1.05× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 77.8% 77.4% 79.5% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 68.6% 66.2% 62.9% 1.05× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 53.7% 52.5% 59.9% 0.88× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 46.3% 47.5% 40.1% 1.19× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 31.4% 33.8% 37.1% 0.91× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 22.2% 22.6% 20.5% 1.10× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 15.6% 17.6% 21.2% 0.83× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 6.7% 7.7% 11.1% 0.70× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 6.4% 7.7% 5.8% 1.32× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.4% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 92.6% 92.5% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 81.4% 81.1% 74.8% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 70.7% 72.6% 74.5% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 59.6% 55.5% 51.9% 1.07× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 40.4% 44.5% 48.1% 0.92× 2.25
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 29.3% 27.4% 25.5% 1.08× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 18.6% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 7.4% 7.5% 12.4% 0.61× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.6% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.34
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.8% 89.1% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 69.2% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 67.7% 69.1% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.3% 30.9% 3.24
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 30.8% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.2% 10.9% 9.18
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 81.0% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 76.6% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 50.1% 53.3% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 49.9% 46.7% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 23.4% 20.1% 4.97
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.0% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to score in both halves 87.0% 86.0% 1.16
Nashville SC not to score in both halves 63.3% 63.5% 1.57
Nashville SC to score in both halves 36.7% 36.5% 2.74
CF Montréal to score in both halves 13.0% 14.0% 7.14
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 51.3% 53.9% 61.1% 0.88× 1.86
Only Nashville SC scores 34.1% 33.4% 12.3% 2.72× 3.00
Only CF Montréal scores 8.3% 7.2% 21.1% 0.34× 13.90
Neither team scores 6.4% 7.2% 5.8% 1.23× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.1% 22.6% 19.7% 1.15× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.3% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 15.8% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.8% 17.4% 16.0% 1.09× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.9% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.09
6 or more goals 6.7% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.10
Exactly 0 goals 6.4% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 49.9% 44.9% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 31.2% 33.6% 2.98
No goals in 2nd half 19.0% 17.1% 5.84
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to win both halves 97.2% 97.2% 1.03
Nashville SC not to win both halves 78.7% 75.5% 1.33
Nashville SC to win both halves 21.3% 24.5% 4.08
CF Montréal to win both halves 2.8% 2.8% 35.86
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC to win either half 71.4% 72.9% 1.37
CF Montréal to win neither half 69.4% 68.0% 1.47
CF Montréal to win either half 30.6% 32.0% 3.12
Nashville SC to win neither half 28.6% 27.1% 3.70
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
CF Montréal not to win to nil 91.7% 92.0% 78.9% 1.17× 1.09
Nashville SC not to win to nil 65.9% 69.6% 87.7% 0.79× 1.44
Nashville SC to win to nil 34.1% 30.4% 12.3% 2.48× 3.29
CF Montréal to win to nil 8.3% 8.0% 21.1% 0.38× 12.54
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Nashville SC by 1 24.2% 24.2% 16.8% 1.43× 4.14
Draw 22.6% 24.2% 24.9% 0.97× 4.14
Nashville SC by 2 18.8% 17.0% 8.7% 1.95× 5.90
Nashville SC by 3+ 17.8% 17.0% 4.6% 3.70× 5.90
CF Montréal by 1 11.1% 11.8% 22.2% 0.53× 8.47
CF Montréal by 2 4.2% 2.7% 12.8% 0.21× 37.00
CF Montréal by 3+ 1.4% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 37.09
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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