Chapecoense v Fluminense FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 24 October 2026 · BRA-Serie A · 2627

Brasileirão results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Chapecoense

14:00

Fluminense FC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,172h before kick-off

Chapecoense win

22.2%

model 23.1%

Draw

26.5%

model 25.6%

Fluminense FC win

51.4%

model 51.3%

222651

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.1%
1-2 9.7%
0-2 8.6%
0-1 8.6%
0-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	55.4%	Under 2.5	44.6%
BTTS yes	57.3%	BTTS no	42.7%
Chapecoense 1+	67.7%	Chapecoense 2+	31.2%
Fluminense FC 1+	83.0%	Fluminense FC 2+	52.8%

Expected goals 1.13 – 1.77. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Fluminense FC carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1360.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Fluminense FC have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.2% for Chapecoense. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.13 for Chapecoense and 1.77 for Fluminense FC.

Why Chapecoense

Nothing in the data singles out Chapecoense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Fluminense FC can win

Fluminense FC carry the stronger rating, 1616 Elo against 1360. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Chapecoense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fluminense FC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Chapecoense: 41% possession, 14.8 shots a match, 17.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fluminense FC: 62% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Fluminense FC are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	222554	1.15–1.89	1-1 11%	59%	59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win	53.5%	51.4%	24.0%	2.14×	1.94
Draw	24.5%	24.5%	27.2%	0.90×	4.09
Chapecoense to win	22.0%	24.4%	48.9%	0.50×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC & both teams score	27.8%	25.2%	10.4%	2.43×	3.97
Fluminense FC & not both score	25.7%	25.2%	13.9%	1.82×	3.98
Draw & both teams score	18.7%	17.9%	20.7%	0.87×	5.58
Chapecoense & both teams score	12.7%	13.3%	21.0%	0.63×	7.54
Chapecoense & not both score	9.3%	8.4%	28.0%	0.30×	11.92
Draw & not both score	5.8%	8.4%	6.7%	1.25×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC & over 1.5	45.6%	45.2%	17.2%	2.63×	2.21
Fluminense FC & over 2.5	37.0%	34.9%	13.2%	2.64×	2.87
Fluminense FC & under 3.5	31.6%	30.9%	18.6%	1.66×	3.24
Fluminense FC & over 3.5	21.9%	21.7%	5.6%	3.89×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	18.7%	18.0%	20.7%	0.87×	5.56
Chapecoense & over 1.5	17.5%	18.0%	36.8%	0.49×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	17.3%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	17.3%	18.0%	20.2%	0.89×	5.56
Fluminense FC & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	11.0%	1.64×	5.56
Chapecoense & under 3.5	14.8%	12.9%	36.8%	0.35×	7.77
Chapecoense & over 2.5	14.4%	12.9%	27.5%	0.47×	7.77
Chapecoense & under 2.5	7.6%	7.9%	21.5%	0.37×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	7.2%	1.10×	12.70
Fluminense FC & under 1.5	7.9%	7.9%	7.0%	1.12×	12.70
Chapecoense & over 3.5	7.2%	7.9%	12.3%	0.64×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	5.8%	7.9%	6.7%	1.18×	12.70
Chapecoense & under 1.5	4.4%	4.8%	12.3%	0.39×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (1UP)	68.7%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Chapecoense (1UP)	41.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (2UP)	53.5%	55.7%	—	—	1.80
Chapecoense (2UP)	22.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.23

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win 2nd half	46.7%	45.4%	—	—	2.20
2nd half drawn	32.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Chapecoense to win 2nd half	20.9%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (+2.5)	97.3%	96.3%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Fluminense FC (+1.5)	91.1%	92.1%	76.8%	1.20×	1.09
Fluminense FC (+0.5)	78.0%	78.4%	51.1%	1.53×	1.28
Fluminense FC (-0.5)	53.5%	52.3%	24.0%	2.18×	1.91
Chapecoense (+0.5)	46.5%	47.7%	76.0%	0.63×	2.10
Chapecoense (-0.5)	22.0%	21.6%	48.9%	0.44×	4.64
Chapecoense (-1.5)	8.9%	7.9%	23.2%	0.34×	12.62
Chapecoense (-2.5)	2.7%	3.7%	9.2%	0.40×	26.90

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to concede	68.5%	72.5%	79.6%	0.91×	1.38
Fluminense FC clean sheet	31.5%	27.5%	20.4%	1.35×	3.64

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC clean sheet in 1st half	60.9%	64.8%	—	—	1.54
Fluminense FC to concede in 1st half	39.1%	35.2%	—	—	2.84

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC over 2.5 corners	82.3%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Fluminense FC over 3.5 corners	69.7%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Fluminense FC under 6.5 corners	68.1%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Fluminense FC under 5.5 corners	56.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fluminense FC over 4.5 corners	56.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fluminense FC under 4.5 corners	43.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fluminense FC over 5.5 corners	43.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fluminense FC over 6.5 corners	31.9%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Fluminense FC under 3.5 corners	30.3%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Fluminense FC under 2.5 corners	17.7%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC under 3.5 goals	87.6%	87.9%	97.9%	0.90×	1.14
Fluminense FC over 0.5 goals	84.9%	81.4%	65.4%	1.24×	1.23
Fluminense FC under 2.5 goals	70.6%	71.9%	90.9%	0.79×	1.39
Fluminense FC over 1.5 goals	56.4%	59.5%	28.0%	2.12×	1.68
Fluminense FC under 1.5 goals	43.6%	40.5%	72.0%	0.56×	2.47
Fluminense FC over 2.5 goals	29.4%	28.1%	9.1%	3.09×	3.56
Fluminense FC under 0.5 goals	15.1%	18.6%	34.6%	0.54×	5.39
Fluminense FC over 3.5 goals	12.4%	12.1%	2.1%	5.85×	8.25

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC under 1.5 in 1st half	82.4%	83.1%	—	—	1.20
Fluminense FC over 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Fluminense FC under 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Fluminense FC over 1.5 in 1st half	17.6%	16.9%	—	—	5.90

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	52.7%	51.2%	35.8%	1.43×	1.95
Chapecoense (away no bet)	47.3%	48.8%	64.2%	0.76×	2.05

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC even goals	51.1%	52.8%	54.9%	0.96×	1.89
Fluminense FC odd goals	48.9%	47.2%	45.1%	1.05×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	80.9%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	19.1%	17.1%	—	—	5.83

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	70.6%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Both halves under 1.5 goals	29.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	62.4%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Fluminense FC to score 2+ in a row	47.6%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.4%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
Chapecoense to score 2+ in a row	22.5%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Fluminense FC to score 3+ in a row	20.2%	19.5%	—	—	5.14
Chapecoense to score 3+ in a row	5.5%	5.6%	—	—	17.84

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC corners (+3.5)	86.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fluminense FC corners (+2.5)	80.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Chapecoense corners (+3.5)	74.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Fluminense FC corners (+1.5)	72.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Chapecoense corners (+2.5)	66.4%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Chapecoense corners (+1.5)	56.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fluminense FC corners (-1.5)	43.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fluminense FC corners (-2.5)	33.6%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Chapecoense corners (-1.5)	27.5%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Fluminense FC corners (-3.5)	25.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Chapecoense corners (-2.5)	19.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Chapecoense corners (-3.5)	13.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	40.4%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
12+ corners	32.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 7.5 corners	69.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	67.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	59.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	59.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	50.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	49.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	40.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	40.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	32.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	30.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	11.4%	11.5%	13.7%	0.84×	8.73
0-2	8.5%	7.4%	4.1%	1.79×	13.48
1-2	9.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
0-1	7.9%	7.4%	7.0%	1.06×	13.48
0-0	5.8%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
0-3	5.4%	7.4%	1.8%	4.24×	13.48
1-3	6.2%	7.4%	2.1%	3.58×	13.48
2-1	6.0%	7.4%	10.8%	0.69×	13.48
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	5.6%	1.33×	13.48
Any other score	4.9%	1.7%	2.5%	0.67×	58.46
0-4	2.5%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.48
1-0	4.4%	1.7%	12.3%	0.14×	58.46
1-4	2.9%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.47
2-0	3.2%	1.7%	9.4%	0.18×	58.47
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.47
2-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.48
3-0	1.2%	1.7%	4.8%	0.36×	58.48
3-1	2.3%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.48
3-2	2.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.60×	58.48
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	1.8%	0.98×	58.48
3-4	0.7%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49
4-0	0.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.53×	58.49
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.49
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.79×	58.49
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	5.37×	58.49
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.2%	10.74×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC leading at HT (DNB)	63.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Chapecoense leading at HT (DNB)	36.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw (X2)	78.0%	75.6%	51.1%	1.48×	1.32
Chapecoense or Fluminense FC (12)	75.5%	75.5%	72.8%	1.04×	1.32
Chapecoense or draw (1X)	46.5%	48.6%	76.0%	0.64×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw at HT	78.5%	79.9%	—	—	1.25
Chapecoense or draw at HT	62.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Chapecoense or Fluminense FC at HT	59.3%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw (1UP)	78.0%	84.0%	—	—	1.19
Chapecoense or draw (1UP)	46.5%	52.6%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC or draw in 2nd half	79.1%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Chapecoense or Fluminense FC in 2nd half	67.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Chapecoense or draw in 2nd half	53.3%	54.6%	—	—	1.83

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	58.7%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	41.3%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (DNB)	70.9%	71.4%	33.0%	2.16×	1.40
Chapecoense (DNB)	29.1%	28.6%	67.0%	0.43×	3.49

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score first	58.5%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Chapecoense to score first	35.7%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	5.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.2%	54.9%	51.8%	1.06×	1.82
Not both teams to score	40.8%	45.1%	48.2%	0.93×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	47.7%	44.3%	38.2%	1.16×	2.26
Not both score & under 2.5	29.9%	33.6%	38.9%	0.87×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	11.4%	12.3%	13.7%	0.90×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	10.9%	12.3%	9.6%	1.29×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	81.9%	83.0%	87.3%	0.95×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	18.1%	17.0%	12.7%	1.33×	5.90

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	66.9%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	33.1%	32.4%	—	—	3.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	52.8%	55.9%	—	—	1.79
Both score 2nd half only	26.3%	26.5%	—	—	3.78
Both score 1st half only	14.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.28
Both score in both halves	6.8%	6.8%	—	—	14.76

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	79.1%	81.6%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	20.9%	18.4%	—	—	5.42

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	60.0%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	40.0%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.5%	47.4%	49.8%	0.95×	2.11
4-6 goals	32.7%	30.8%	24.2%	1.27×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.2%	20.2%	25.6%	0.79×	4.96
7+ goals	3.6%	1.8%	0.6%	2.88×	54.43

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score 3+	29.4%	27.4%	9.1%	3.02×	3.65
Fluminense FC to score exactly 1	28.5%	27.4%	37.6%	0.73×	3.65
Fluminense FC to score exactly 2	27.0%	27.4%	19.1%	1.43×	3.65
Fluminense FC to score exactly 0	15.1%	19.6%	34.6%	0.57×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to score exactly 1	36.4%	35.6%	34.2%	1.04×	2.81
Chapecoense to score exactly 0	31.5%	32.6%	20.4%	1.60×	3.06
Chapecoense to score exactly 2	21.0%	23.2%	27.2%	0.85×	4.30
Chapecoense to score 3+	11.1%	14.3%	18.5%	0.77×	6.99

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	40.7%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Fluminense FC leading at HT	37.8%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
Chapecoense leading at HT	21.5%	20.1%	—	—	4.98

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC -1: 1	46.5%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Fluminense FC -1: 2	31.4%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Fluminense FC -1: X	22.1%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (0:1)	78.0%	73.9%	51.1%	1.45×	1.35
Draw (0:1)	13.1%	13.8%	25.8%	0.54×	7.22
Chapecoense (0:1)	8.9%	9.2%	23.2%	0.40×	10.83

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (0:2)	91.1%	90.8%	76.8%	1.18×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	6.2%	7.7%	14.2%	0.54×	12.96
Chapecoense (0:2)	2.7%	3.8%	9.2%	0.41×	26.60

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (0:3)	97.3%	96.6%	90.8%	1.06×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	2.0%	2.4%	6.7%	0.35×	42.17
Chapecoense (0:3)	0.7%	2.4%	2.7%	0.87×	42.24

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (0:4)	99.3%	98.1%	97.3%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	0.5%	1.2%	1.8%	0.68×	83.62
Chapecoense (0:4)	0.1%	1.2%	1.1%	1.07×	83.67

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (1:0)	46.5%	49.6%	76.0%	0.65×	2.02
Fluminense FC (1:0)	31.4%	30.3%	9.6%	3.17×	3.30
Draw (1:0)	22.1%	21.8%	14.7%	1.49×	4.59

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense (2:0)	68.6%	70.6%	90.4%	0.78×	1.42
Draw (2:0)	16.7%	15.7%	6.2%	2.52×	6.38
Fluminense FC (2:0)	14.8%	10.4%	3.5%	2.97×	9.61

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	49.2%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	24.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.14

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede	84.9%	80.9%	65.4%	1.24×	1.24
Chapecoense clean sheet	15.1%	19.1%	34.6%	0.55×	5.23

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense to concede in 1st half	53.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Chapecoense clean sheet in 1st half	46.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 6.5 corners	78.8%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Chapecoense over 2.5 corners	74.6%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Chapecoense under 5.5 corners	68.7%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Chapecoense over 3.5 corners	59.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Chapecoense under 4.5 corners	55.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Chapecoense over 4.5 corners	44.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Chapecoense under 3.5 corners	40.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Chapecoense over 5.5 corners	31.3%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Chapecoense under 2.5 corners	25.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Chapecoense over 6.5 corners	21.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 3.5 goals	97.0%	96.4%	94.3%	1.02×	1.04
Chapecoense under 2.5 goals	88.9%	87.3%	81.5%	1.07×	1.15
Chapecoense over 0.5 goals	68.5%	67.9%	79.6%	0.85×	1.47
Chapecoense under 1.5 goals	67.9%	67.9%	54.5%	1.25×	1.47
Chapecoense over 1.5 goals	32.1%	32.1%	45.5%	0.71×	3.11
Chapecoense under 0.5 goals	31.5%	32.1%	20.4%	1.58×	3.11
Chapecoense over 2.5 goals	11.1%	12.7%	18.5%	0.69×	7.86
Chapecoense over 3.5 goals	3.0%	3.6%	5.7%	0.63×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense under 1.5 in 1st half	91.1%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Chapecoense under 0.5 in 1st half	60.9%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
Chapecoense over 0.5 in 1st half	39.1%	35.4%	—	—	2.82
Chapecoense over 1.5 in 1st half	8.9%	4.7%	—	—	21.18

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC (home no bet)	68.6%	64.0%	46.9%	1.36×	1.56
Draw (home no bet)	31.4%	36.0%	53.1%	0.68×	2.78

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense even goals	55.0%	50.7%	51.8%	0.98×	1.97
Chapecoense odd goals	45.0%	49.4%	48.2%	1.02×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.8%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 0-1	21.4%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 1-0	14.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	10.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-2	8.2%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
Any other HT score	5.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 1-2	4.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.31
HT 2-0	3.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.35
HT 2-1	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
HT 2-2	1.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.54

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	31.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Draw at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	18.4%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Chapecoense at HT / Chapecoense at FT	12.4%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Chapecoense at FT	8.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Chapecoense at HT / Draw at FT	5.4%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Fluminense FC at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Chapecoense at HT / Fluminense FC at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Fluminense FC at HT / Chapecoense at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to score last	58.6%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Chapecoense to score last	35.6%	38.4%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	5.8%	7.5%	—	—	13.40

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	94.2%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Fluminense FC to lead by 1 at any time	68.7%	69.6%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	52.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Chapecoense to lead by 1 at any time	41.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Fluminense FC to lead by 2 at any time	38.8%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Fluminense FC to lead by 3 at any time	17.8%	14.9%	—	—	6.70
Chapecoense to lead by 2 at any time	14.4%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Chapecoense to lead by 3 at any time	4.0%	1.7%	—	—	60.34

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC most corners	53.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Chapecoense most corners	36.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	10.0%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.3%	87.4%	88.9%	0.98×	1.14
2-6 goals	78.2%	78.6%	73.9%	1.06×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.0%	72.4%	81.8%	0.88×	1.38
2-5 goals	73.0%	72.4%	69.9%	1.04×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.6%	63.4%	62.9%	1.01×	1.58
1-3 goals	57.9%	59.2%	68.8%	0.86×	1.69
3-6 goals	55.1%	59.2%	47.1%	1.26×	1.69
3-5 goals	49.8%	48.7%	43.2%	1.13×	2.06
2-3 goals	45.5%	48.7%	49.8%	0.98×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.5%	39.2%	36.1%	1.08×	2.55
1-2 goals	35.5%	39.1%	45.9%	0.85×	2.56
4-6 goals	32.7%	35.4%	24.2%	1.46×	2.83
4-5 goals	27.4%	30.2%	20.2%	1.50×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.7%	18.6%	11.1%	1.67×	5.37
7+ goals	3.6%	2.6%	0.6%	4.01×	39.17

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC never behind	52.5%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Chapecoense never behind	25.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.34

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.8%	50.8%	49.2%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.2%	49.2%	50.8%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.1%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.9%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	94.2%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.2%	92.3%	95.4%	0.97×	1.08
Over 1.5 goals	81.8%	82.4%	74.4%	1.11×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	80.8%	82.4%	88.4%	0.93×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	63.7%	61.8%	75.3%	0.82×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	58.7%	58.8%	47.6%	1.24×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	41.3%	41.2%	52.4%	0.79×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	36.3%	38.2%	24.7%	1.55×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	19.2%	17.6%	11.6%	1.52×	5.67
Under 1.5 goals	18.2%	17.6%	25.6%	0.69×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	8.8%	7.7%	4.6%	1.68×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	5.8%	7.7%	6.7%	1.16×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.2%	97.2%	99.3%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.1%	92.4%	95.0%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	76.8%	75.9%	86.6%	0.88×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	76.3%	75.9%	65.0%	1.17×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.3%	51.8%	68.0%	0.76×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.7%	48.2%	32.0%	1.50×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	23.7%	24.1%	35.0%	0.69×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	23.2%	24.1%	13.4%	1.80×	4.15
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.9%	7.6%	5.0%	1.52×	13.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.8%	2.8%	0.7%	4.17×	36.11

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.8%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.2%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	64.2%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	35.8%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.8%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	83.0%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	73.3%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	53.8%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	46.2%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	26.7%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	17.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to score in both halves	81.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Fluminense FC not to score in both halves	64.0%	63.5%	—	—	1.57
Fluminense FC to score in both halves	36.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Chapecoense to score in both halves	18.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	59.2%	58.4%	51.8%	1.13×	1.71
Only Fluminense FC scores	25.7%	26.1%	13.9%	1.88×	3.83
Only Chapecoense scores	9.3%	7.2%	28.0%	0.26×	13.89
Neither team scores	5.8%	7.2%	6.7%	1.07×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.1%	22.6%	26.9%	0.84×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	23.1%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	17.1%	17.4%	13.2%	1.32×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.4%	12.1%	19.1%	0.63×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.4%	12.1%	7.2%	1.69×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.8%	7.6%	4.6%	1.66×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	5.8%	7.6%	6.7%	1.14×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	53.8%	51.5%	—	—	1.94
1 goal in 2nd half	29.1%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	17.0%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win both halves	95.4%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Fluminense FC not to win both halves	82.1%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Fluminense FC to win both halves	17.9%	15.8%	—	—	6.32
Chapecoense to win both halves	4.6%	2.8%	—	—	35.30

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fluminense FC to win either half	66.6%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Chapecoense to win neither half	62.2%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Chapecoense to win either half	37.8%	35.0%	—	—	2.86
Fluminense FC to win neither half	33.4%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Chapecoense not to win to nil	90.7%	92.0%	72.0%	1.28×	1.09
Fluminense FC not to win to nil	74.3%	75.3%	86.1%	0.87×	1.33
Fluminense FC to win to nil	25.7%	24.7%	13.9%	1.78×	4.05
Chapecoense to win to nil	9.3%	8.0%	28.0%	0.28×	12.53

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	24.5%	24.2%	27.2%	0.89×	4.14
Fluminense FC by 1	22.1%	24.1%	14.7%	1.65×	4.14
Fluminense FC by 2	16.7%	16.9%	6.2%	2.73×	5.91
Fluminense FC by 3+	14.8%	11.8%	3.5%	3.37×	8.47
Chapecoense by 1	13.1%	11.8%	25.8%	0.46×	8.47
Chapecoense by 2	6.2%	7.3%	14.2%	0.51×	13.79
Chapecoense by 3+	2.7%	2.7%	9.2%	0.29×	37.00