Chelsea v Bournemouth — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 14 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
26 – 7
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
16 – 6
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
1.31 – 0.86
Goals − xG
-0.82 – +0.85
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Chelsea win
47.2%
Draw
20.8%
Bournemouth win
32.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Bournemouth are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDDLDD last 10
scored 16
from 17.6 xG
conceded 11
from 16.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 2.12–1.73 | 2-1 8% | 74% | 72% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Chelsea 2.82 xGBournemouth 1.15 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Chelsea attacking right
Bournemouth attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 9' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 12' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Nicolas Jackson |
| 21' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 28' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Levi Colwill |
| 32' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 36' |
 Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | David Brooks |
| 36' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 38' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noni Madueke |
| 42' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.45 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.62 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Bournemouth |
Illia Zabarnyi | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Dean Huijsen |
| 49' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 57' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 59' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Bournemouth |
David Brooks | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lewis Cook |
| 64' |
Chelsea |
Josh Acheampong | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 64' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 67' |
Bournemouth |
Antoine Semenyo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Ryan Christie |
| 68' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jadon Sancho |
| 76' |
Chelsea |
Nicolas Jackson | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 84' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Jebbison |
| 87' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 91' |
Bournemouth |
Justin Kluivert | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyler Adams |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Jackson |
| 92' |
Chelsea |
Marc Cucurella | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 94' |
Chelsea |
Reece James | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 98' |
Chelsea |
Levi Colwill | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Reece James |
Players
Bournemouth
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antoine Semenyo AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Illia Zabarnyi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyler Adams DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Ryan Christie AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Milos Kerkez DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mark Travers GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Cook DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| Dango Ouattara FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Dean Huijsen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| David Brooks AMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Justin Kluivert Sub | 68 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| James Hill DR | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Jebbison Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.12 |
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Jackson FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 1.47 | 0.40 | 1.04 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.46 | 0.72 |
| Jadon Sancho AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.14 | 0.30 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.71 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0.09 | 0.44 | 0.95 |
| Levi Colwill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| Robert Sánchez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| Moisés Caicedo DR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Josh Acheampong DC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Romeo Lavia DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Reece James Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.04 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| João Félix Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Pedro Neto Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |