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Como v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 14 September 2024 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

2–2
1.46 – 1.15 xG
Shots
14 – 15
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 8
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.45 – 0.38
Goals − xG
+0.54 – +0.84
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'Patrick Cutrone 52' — goalSantiago Castro 75' — goalSamuel Iling-Junior 90' — goal
Como 1.46 xGBologna 1.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Nicolò Casale 4' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 13' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Orsolini 17' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Pobega 22' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 25' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 32' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Alberto Dossena 33' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, From Corner)Alberto Dossena 35' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 38' — Missed Shot (0.32 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 41' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Thijs Dallinga 46' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Riccardo Orsolini 48' — Blocked Shot (0.15 xG, Direct Freekick)Jens Odgaard 49' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Set Piece)Giovanni Fabbian 50' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 52' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 52' — Goal (0.09 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Strefezza 59' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Giovanni Fabbian 64' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Alberto Dossena 64' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Jens Odgaard 70' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Tommaso Pobega 70' — Shot On Post (0.02 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 73' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jens Odgaard 75' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Santiago Castro 75' — Goal (0.31 xG, Open Play)Alberto Moreno 78' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Andrea Belotti 83' — Missed Shot (0.35 xG, Set Piece)Andrea Belotti 89' — Missed Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Samuel Iling-Junior 90' — Goal (0.06 xG, Open Play)Juan Miranda 97' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Direct Freekick)
Como attacking right Bologna attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Bologna Nicolò Casale 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal
13' Como Alieu Fadera 0.05 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
17' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
22' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.12 Open Play Missed Shot Michel Aebischer
25' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Juan Miranda
32' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
33' Como Alberto Dossena 0.03 From Corner Missed Shot Nico Paz
35' Como Alberto Dossena 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
38' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.32 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Nico Paz
41' Como Nico Paz 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Alessio Iovine
46' Bologna Thijs Dallinga 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Juan Miranda
48' Bologna Riccardo Orsolini 0.15 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot
49' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.07 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot
50' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Stefan Posch
52' Como Nico Paz 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Gabriel Strefezza
52' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Strefezza
59' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sergi Roberto
64' Bologna Giovanni Fabbian 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Stefan Posch
64' Como Alberto Dossena 0.02 From Corner Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
70' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.07 Open Play Saved Shot Samuel Iling-Junior
70' Bologna Tommaso Pobega 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post Remo Freuler
73' Como Nico Paz 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
75' Bologna Jens Odgaard 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Remo Freuler
75' Bologna Santiago Castro 0.31 Open Play Right Foot Goal
78' Como Alberto Moreno 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Marc-Oliver Kempf
83' Como Andrea Belotti 0.35 Set Piece Missed Shot Nico Paz
89' Como Andrea Belotti 0.12 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lucas Da Cunha
90' Bologna Samuel Iling-Junior 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Goal Santiago Castro
97' Bologna Juan Miranda 0.07 Direct Freekick Left Foot Blocked Shot

Players

Bologna

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Tommaso Pobega MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.14 0.00 0.27
Juan Miranda DL 90 0 0 1 2 0.07 0.11 0.07
Stefan Posch DR 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.12 0.24
Sam Beukema DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.17
Lukasz Skorupski GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Remo Freuler DMC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.06 0.13
Jens Odgaard ML 84 0 0 4 0 0.19 0.00 0.12
Nicolò Casale DC 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Riccardo Orsolini MR 67 0 0 2 0 0.18 0.00 0.15
Thijs Dallinga FW 67 0 0 1 0 0.09 0.00 0.00
Michel Aebischer MC 50 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.12
Giovanni Fabbian Sub 40 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.12
Santiago Castro Sub 23 1 1 1 1 0.31 0.06 0.42
Samuel Iling-Junior Sub 23 1 0 1 1 0.06 0.07 0.21
Dan Ndoye Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jhon Lucumí Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Nico Paz AMC 90 0 0 3 3 0.16 0.70 0.72
Gabriel Strefezza AMR 90 0 1 1 4 0.12 0.25 0.35
Alberto Moreno DL 90 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.37
Máximo Perrone DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.26
Marc-Oliver Kempf DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.31
Emil Audero GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.25
Sergi Roberto DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.49
Alessio Iovine DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.21
Patrick Cutrone FW 82 1 0 3 0 0.51 0.00 0.63
Alieu Fadera AML 82 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.37
Alberto Dossena DC 71 0 0 3 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Edoardo Goldaniga Sub 19 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Andrea Belotti Sub 8 0 0 2 0 0.47 0.00 0.12
Lucas Da Cunha Sub 8 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.12 0.06
Luca Mazzitelli Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Matthias Braunöder Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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