Como v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 January 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.27
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.64
Goals − xG
-0.14 – -0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
54.3%
Draw
24.8%
Bologna win
20.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLLDWWDLLD last 10
scored 11
from 14.7 xG
conceded 13
from 10.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.62–0.90 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.34–1.34 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.14 xGBologna 1.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.64 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Santiago Castro |
| 0' |
Bologna |
Santiago Castro | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 6' |
 Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Tommaso Pobega | 0.11 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Remo Freuler |
| 21' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 22' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 28' |
Bologna |
Jonathan Rowe | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 32' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 46' |
Como |
Jesús Rodriguez | 0.19 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Alberto Moreno |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Santiago Castro |
| 67' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Tasos Douvikas |
| 74' |
Como |
Stefan Posch | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 82' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 84' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Lewis Ferguson |
| 84' |
Bologna |
Martin Vitík | 0.42 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Giovanni Fabbian |
| 86' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 92' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jesús Rodriguez |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torbjørn Heggem DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Ravaglia GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Giovanni Fabbian AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.84 | 0.42 |
| Nadir Zortea DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tommaso Pobega DMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Castro FW | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.76 | 1.18 |
| Jonathan Rowe AMR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Remo Freuler DMC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Martin Vitík Sub | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 64 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ciro Immobile Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Casale Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lewis Ferguson Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.00 |
| Sulemana Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.04 | 0.73 |
| Jesús Rodriguez AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.24 | 0.65 | 0.89 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.11 | 0.65 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.23 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mergim Vojvoda AMR | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Maxence Caqueret Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.52 |
| Nicolas Kühn Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Martin Baturina Sub | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |