Como v Internazionale — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 23 May 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 11
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
11 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.21
Set-piece xG
0.67 – 0.66
Goals − xG
-1.56 – -0.28
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
30.2%
Draw
27.9%
Internazionale win
41.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Internazionale are finishing above their chances — 3.9 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWDWWDDWWW last 10
scored 26
from 22.1 xG
conceded 12
from 13.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.24–1.50 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.75 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.56 xGInternazionale 2.28 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Internazionale attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Como |
Ignace Van der Brempt | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 3' |
 Internazionale |
Matteo Darmian | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 7' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.29 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 15' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 17' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ignace Van der Brempt |
| 19' |
Internazionale |
Stefan de Vrij | 0.29 | From Corner | — | Goal | Hakan Calhanoglu |
| 22' |
Internazionale |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mehdi Taremi |
| 26' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 28' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 34' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.47 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 34' |
Como |
Ivan Smolcic | 0.15 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Internazionale |
Mehdi Taremi | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nicola Zalewski |
| 37' |
Como |
Gabriel Strefezza | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 47' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Ivan Smolcic |
| 48' |
Internazionale |
Hakan Calhanoglu | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 50' |
Internazionale |
Joaquín Correa | 0.55 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mehdi Taremi |
| 53' |
Internazionale |
Mehdi Taremi | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Dimarco |
| 56' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
| 57' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nico Paz |
| 66' |
Como |
Lucas Da Cunha | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 68' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nico Paz |
| 77' |
Internazionale |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Internazionale |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Matteo Darmian |
| 78' |
Internazionale |
Carlos Augusto | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Strefezza |
| 92' |
Como |
Patrick Cutrone | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mergim Vojvoda |
Players
Internazionale
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquín Correa AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Carlos Augusto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.96 |
| Matteo Darmian DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.96 |
| Stefan de Vrij DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 1.43 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Yann Sommer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Nicola Zalewski AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.41 | 1.05 |
| Mehdi Taremi FW | 78 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.64 | 1.52 |
| Hakan Calhanoglu MC | 65 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.57 | 0.55 |
| Federico Dimarco DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.47 | 1.43 |
| Yann Bisseck DC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Francesco Acerbi Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Denzel Dumfries Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolò Barella Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marko Arnautovic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luka Topalovic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ivan Smolcic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.61 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Mergim Vojvoda DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.42 |
| Gabriel Strefezza AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.05 | 0.41 | 0.60 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.47 | 0.51 |
| Álex Valle DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Nico Paz AMR | 86 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.36 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.17 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.12 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| José Reina GK | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Jean Butez Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Patrick Cutrone Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Yannick Engelhardt Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Jonathan Ikone Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Iovine Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |