Como v Juventus — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.60 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+0.30 – -0.97
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
27.3%
Draw
29.1%
Juventus win
43.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Juventus are finishing sharply below their chances — 7.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.7 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWWDDWLDWW last 10
scored 12
from 19.4 xG
conceded 5
from 7.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.05–1.39 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.98–1.43 | 0-1 13% | 43% | 47% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 1.70 xGJuventus 0.97 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Juventus attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.51 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Nico Paz |
| 14' |
 Juventus |
Manuel Locatelli | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Teun Koopmeiners |
| 20' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kephren Thuram |
| 24' |
Juventus |
Kenan Yildiz | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Francisco Conceição |
| 26' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kenan Yildiz |
| 28' |
Como |
Marc-Oliver Kempf | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 28' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 30' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 33' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 34' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Manuel Locatelli |
| 34' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 37' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa |
| 39' |
Juventus |
Francisco Conceição | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonathan Christian David |
| 45' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 55' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.42 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Como |
Mergim Vojvoda | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 61' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 62' |
Juventus |
Teun Koopmeiners | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 64' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 66' |
Juventus |
Kephren Thuram | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrea Cambiaso |
| 78' |
Como |
Nico Paz | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Máximo Perrone |
| 81' |
Juventus |
Andrea Cambiaso | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 84' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nico Paz |
| 88' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Stefan Posch |
| 90' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 93' |
Juventus |
Dusan Vlahovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Juventus
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenan Yildiz FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 0.53 |
| Kephren Thuram MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.20 |
| Francisco Conceição FWR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 0.33 |
| Jonathan Christian David FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Lloyd Kelly DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Michele Di Gregorio GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Pierre Kalulu Kyatengwa DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.34 |
| Andrea Cambiaso DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.26 | 0.40 |
| Daniele Rugani DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Teun Koopmeiners MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.02 | 0.42 |
| Manuel Locatelli MC | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.14 |
| Dusan Vlahovic Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Weston McKennie Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| João Mário Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filip Kostic Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Nico Paz AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.18 | 0.71 | 0.56 |
| Mergim Vojvoda AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Álvaro Morata FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| Ivan Smolcic DR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Maxence Caqueret AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.09 | 0.76 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacobo Ramón Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tasos Douvikas Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Álex Valle Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Stefan Posch Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |