Como v Parma Calcio 1913 — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 17 May 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 2
On target
7 – 2
Shots in box
15 – 2
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.44 – 0.48
Goals − xG
-1.75 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Como win
67.3%
Draw
19.5%
Parma Calcio 1913 win
13.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Como have scored 19 from 18.8 expected and conceded 10 from 10.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLWDWWWDWW last 10
scored 19
from 18.8 xG
conceded 10
from 10.2 xG
Parma Calcio 1913 are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 7.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWLLLWLLD last 10
scored 7
from 7.8 xG
conceded 11
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.96–0.71 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 2.14–0.69 | 2-0 14% | 54% | 44% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Como 2.75 xGParma Calcio 1913 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Como attacking right
Parma Calcio 1913 attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 7' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 7' |
Como |
Máximo Perrone | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 10' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tasos Douvikas |
| 13' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 13' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Da Cunha |
| 29' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 29' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Máximo Perrone |
| 32' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Assane Diao |
| 37' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Martin Baturina |
| 45' |
Como |
Assane Diao | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 45' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Como |
Ignace Van der Brempt | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 46' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Caqueret |
| 47' |
Como |
Maxence Caqueret | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 56' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.16 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 57' |
Como |
Alberto Moreno | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 60' |
Como |
Jacobo Ramón | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 63' |
Como |
Tasos Douvikas | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Martin Baturina |
| 76' |
 Parma Calcio 1913 |
Nesta Elphege | 0.46 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Como |
Martin Baturina | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Assane Diao |
| 81' |
Como |
Álvaro Morata | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jesús Rodriguez |
| 89' |
Parma Calcio 1913 |
Enrico Del Prato | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Emanuele Valeri |
Players
Parma Calcio 1913
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Enrico Del Prato DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Zion Suzuki GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mateo Pellegrino FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mariano Troilo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mandela Keita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lautaro Valenti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Circati DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Ordóñez MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Ezequiel Carboni DML | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hans Nicolussi Caviglia MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gabriel Strefezza FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nesta Elphege Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nahuel Estévez Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oliver Sørensen Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuele Valeri Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Mikolajewski Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Como
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Assane Diao AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.82 |
| Alberto Moreno DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.49 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jacobo Ramón DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Máximo Perrone DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Jean Butez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Lucas Da Cunha DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1.13 |
| Tasos Douvikas FW | 84 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.03 | 0.68 |
| Martin Baturina AMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.74 | 1.39 |
| Marc-Oliver Kempf DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ignace Van der Brempt DR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Maxence Caqueret AMR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.10 | 0.19 |
| Jesús Rodriguez Sub | 35 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.83 | 0.83 |
| Ivan Smolcic Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Álvaro Morata Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.38 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Diego Carlos Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sergi Roberto Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |