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Como v Udinese — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Monday 20 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

4–1
1.82 – 0.85 xG
Shots
11 – 7
On target
8 – 2
Shots in box
7 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.00
Goals − xG
+2.17 – +0.15
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.01.52.00'15'30'45'60'75'90'Assane Diao 4' — goalGabriel Strefezza 43' — goalMartín Payero 49' — goalNico Paz 89' — goal
Como 1.83 xGUdinese 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Assane Diao 4' — Goal (0.37 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 8' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Maxence Caqueret 15' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Assane Diao 16' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Patrick Cutrone 16' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Alexis Sánchez 20' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 26' — Saved Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 32' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 41' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Gabriel Strefezza 43' — Goal (0.02 xG, From Corner)Martín Payero 49' — Goal (0.03 xG, Open Play)Rui Modesto 54' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Alieu Fadera 67' — Saved Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Lucas Da Cunha 69' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Patrick Cutrone 72' — Blocked Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jesper Karlström 74' — Missed Shot (0.55 xG, Open Play)Jaka Bijol 77' — Own Goal (0.00 xG, Open Play)Nico Paz 89' — Goal (0.93 xG, Open Play)
Como attacking right Udinese attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Como Assane Diao 0.37 Open Play Right Foot Goal Gabriel Strefezza
8' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Patrick Cutrone
15' Como Maxence Caqueret 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
16' Como Assane Diao 0.10 From Corner Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
16' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.06 From Corner Right Foot Saved Shot
20' Udinese Alexis Sánchez 0.11 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
26' Como Alieu Fadera 0.07 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gabriel Strefezza
32' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
41' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Oumar Solet
43' Como Gabriel Strefezza 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Goal Alberto Dossena
49' Udinese Martín Payero 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Goal
54' Udinese Rui Modesto 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Thomas Thiesson Kristensen
67' Como Alieu Fadera 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Nico Paz
69' Como Lucas Da Cunha 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
72' Como Patrick Cutrone 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Alessio Iovine
74' Udinese Jesper Karlström 0.55 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Florian Thauvin
77' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.00 Open Play Right Foot Own Goal
89' Como Nico Paz 0.93 Open Play Left Foot Goal Yannick Engelhardt

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.55 0.00 0.55
Sandi Lovric MC 90 0 0 2 0 0.05 0.00 0.70
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.65
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Martín Payero MC 80 1 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.70
Florian Thauvin FW 80 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.55 0.55
Rui Modesto DMR 66 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Oumar Solet DC 64 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.11
Alexis Sánchez FW 47 0 0 1 0 0.11 0.00 0.13
Hassane Kamara DML 47 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Jordan Zemura Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.65
Lorenzo Lucca Sub 43 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub 24 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Arthur Atta Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Bravo Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Como

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Assane Diao AMR 90 1 0 2 0 0.47 0.00 1.33
Alieu Fadera AML 90 0 0 2 0 0.17 0.00 1.47
Alberto Dossena DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.10
Marc-Oliver Kempf DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jean Butez GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Lucas Da Cunha DMC 82 0 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.33
Patrick Cutrone FW 81 0 0 2 1 0.16 0.04 0.50
Gabriel Strefezza AMC 63 1 1 1 3 0.02 0.53 0.44
Maxence Caqueret DMC 62 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.37
Alessio Iovine Sub 62 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.09 0.20
Edoardo Goldaniga DC 58 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nico Paz Sub 28 1 0 1 1 0.93 0.10 1.12
Ignace Van der Brempt DR 28 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Fellipe Jack Sub 27 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yannick Engelhardt Sub 9 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.93 0.93
Máximo Perrone Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.93
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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