Cremonese v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 25 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 20
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
4 – 11
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.13 – 0.16
Goals − xG
-0.17 – -0.63
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Cremonese win
22.9%
Draw
27.8%
Atalanta win
49.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Atalanta are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDLDWLDWWL last 10
scored 11
from 11.9 xG
conceded 12
from 17.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.96–1.52 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.90–2.31 | 0-2 11% | 62% | 53% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Cremonese 1.17 xGAtalanta 1.63 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Cremonese attacking right
Atalanta attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 17' |
 Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
Cremonese |
Jari Vandeputte | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 22' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 24' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 26' |
Cremonese |
Tommaso Barbieri | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 27' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 30' |
Cremonese |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 31' |
Cremonese |
Romano Floriani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 34' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Charles De Ketelaere |
| 44' |
Atalanta |
Charles De Ketelaere | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 45' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' |
Cremonese |
Jeremy Sarmiento | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martín Payero |
| 49' |
Atalanta |
Nikola Krstovic | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 53' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 59' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 60' |
Atalanta |
Éderson | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lazar Samardzic |
| 61' |
Atalanta |
Nicola Zalewski | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 63' |
Atalanta |
Ademola Lookman | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Isak Hien |
| 65' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 67' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raoul Bellanova |
| 71' |
Atalanta |
Lazar Samardzic | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Mario Pasalic |
| 72' |
Atalanta |
Marten de Roon | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Alessio Zerbin | 0.37 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Romano Floriani |
| 77' |
Cremonese |
Jamie Vardy | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 83' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ademola Lookman |
| 83' |
Atalanta |
Marco Brescianini | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 87' |
Atalanta |
Gianluca Scamacca | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Marco Brescianini |
Players
Atalanta
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ademola Lookman FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.26 | 0.81 | 1.20 |
| Éderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Nicola Zalewski DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Berat Gjimshiti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Raoul Bellanova DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.68 |
| Isak Hien DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.54 |
| Marco Carnesecchi GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Marten de Roon MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Mario Pasalic MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.63 |
| Charles De Ketelaere FWR | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.03 | 0.48 |
| Nikola Krstovic FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Gianluca Scamacca Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lazar Samardzic Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Marco Brescianini Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.48 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.56 | 0.04 | 0.60 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Jari Vandeputte DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.39 |
| Romano Floriani ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.37 | 0.41 |
| Tommaso Barbieri MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marco Silvestri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessio Zerbin MC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.02 | 0.40 |
| Martín Payero MC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Mikayil Faye DC | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonio Sanabria FW | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jeremy Sarmiento Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Matteo Bianchetti Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Francesco Folino Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |