Cremonese v Padova — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · ITA-Serie B · 2627

ITA-Serie B results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Cremonese

13:30

Padova

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 10h before kick-off

Cremonese win

47.1%

model 44.7%

Draw

30.0%

model 30.8%

Padova win

22.8%

model 24.5%

473023

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 14.5%
1-0 11.7%
0-0 11.4%
2-0 9.2%
2-1 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.1%	Under 2.5	58.9%
BTTS yes	47.6%	BTTS no	52.4%
Cremonese 1+	74.6%	Cremonese 2+	39.8%
Padova 1+	61.6%	Padova 2+	24.8%

Expected goals 1.37 – 0.96. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Not both teams to score

GG/NG · usually 46%

54.0% fair odds 1.85

moderate signal · 1233 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Padova not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.4% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Cremonese.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Cremonese have an estimated 47.1% win probability, against 30.0% for the draw and 22.8% for Padova. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.37 for Cremonese and 0.96 for Padova.

Why Cremonese

Nothing in the data singles out Cremonese.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 30.0%. A combined 2.33 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 32% in this competition.

Why Padova can win

Padova carry the stronger rating, 1452 Elo against 1390. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Cremonese's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Federico Bonazzoli (0.32), Jamie Vardy (0.29), Jari Vandeputte (0.21).

Availability

1 of Cremonese's top three contributors did not start their last match. Cremonese had a player sent off last time out, worth about 0.07 expected goal involvements a match. Reported unavailable for Cremonese: Alberto Grassi (suspended). No lineup on record for Padova, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Cremonese: 54% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.13 xG a match from set pieces. Padova: 40% possession, 10.4 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Cremonese are the model's most likely outcome at 47.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 14.5%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

LWLLDLLWWL last 10 scored 10 from 8.8 xG conceded 17 from 11.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	453125	1.37–0.96	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	443125	1.33–0.94	1-1 15%	40%	47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese to win	44.1%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.32
Draw	31.2%	30.3%	32.0%	0.95×	3.30
Padova to win	24.7%	24.5%	25.4%	0.96×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese & not both score	27.1%	25.2%	24.0%	1.05×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	19.3%	17.9%	23.0%	0.78×	5.58
Cremonese & both teams score	17.0%	17.9%	18.8%	0.95×	5.58
Padova & not both score	14.4%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	12.0%	13.3%	9.1%	1.45×	7.54
Padova & both teams score	10.3%	13.3%	12.3%	1.08×	7.55

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese & under 3.5	33.8%	30.9%	32.0%	0.96×	3.24
Cremonese & over 1.5	32.0%	30.9%	31.7%	0.97×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	26.6%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	26.6%	26.0%	23.8%	1.09×	3.84
Cremonese & over 2.5	22.9%	21.7%	24.3%	0.89×	4.62
Cremonese & under 2.5	21.2%	21.7%	18.5%	1.17×	4.62
Padova & under 3.5	20.0%	21.6%	19.9%	1.09×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.3%	18.0%	23.0%	0.78×	5.56
Padova & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	18.8%	0.96×	5.56
Padova & under 2.5	12.5%	12.9%	10.5%	1.22×	7.77
Cremonese & under 1.5	12.0%	12.9%	11.1%	1.16×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	12.0%	12.9%	9.1%	1.41×	7.77
Padova & over 2.5	12.2%	12.9%	15.0%	0.86×	7.77
Cremonese & over 3.5	10.2%	12.9%	10.8%	1.20×	7.77
Padova & under 1.5	8.0%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	4.7%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	8.4%	0.57×	20.93
Padova & over 3.5	4.7%	4.8%	5.6%	0.85×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (1UP)	58.0%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Padova (1UP)	40.7%	39.3%	—	—	2.55

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (2UP)	44.1%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Padova (2UP)	24.7%	23.8%	—	—	4.19

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	40.4%	40.9%	—	—	2.44
Cremonese to win 2nd half	35.8%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Padova to win 2nd half	23.8%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (+2.5)	92.2%	92.1%	93.2%	0.99×	1.09
Padova (+1.5)	78.6%	78.4%	80.5%	0.97×	1.28
Cremonese (+0.5)	75.3%	78.4%	74.6%	1.05×	1.28
Padova (+0.5)	55.9%	57.0%	57.3%	0.99×	1.76
Cremonese (-0.5)	44.1%	43.0%	42.7%	1.01×	2.33
Padova (-0.5)	24.7%	21.6%	25.4%	0.85×	4.63
Cremonese (-1.5)	21.4%	21.6%	19.5%	1.10×	4.64
Cremonese (-2.5)	7.8%	7.9%	6.8%	1.17×	12.63

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to concede	73.7%	76.5%	77.7%	0.98×	1.31
Padova clean sheet	26.3%	23.5%	22.3%	1.06×	4.25

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova clean sheet in 1st half	56.3%	58.4%	—	—	1.71
Padova to concede in 1st half	43.7%	41.6%	—	—	2.40

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 6.5 corners	82.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Padova over 2.5 corners	75.0%	72.4%	—	—	1.38
Padova under 5.5 corners	72.0%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Padova over 3.5 corners	58.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Padova under 4.5 corners	58.2%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Padova under 3.5 corners	41.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Padova over 4.5 corners	41.8%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Padova over 5.5 corners	28.0%	27.7%	—	—	3.61
Padova under 2.5 corners	25.0%	27.6%	—	—	3.62
Padova over 6.5 corners	17.6%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.5%	98.2%	0.99×	1.03
Padova under 2.5 goals	93.0%	92.3%	90.9%	1.02×	1.08
Padova under 1.5 goals	75.7%	76.2%	69.3%	1.10×	1.31
Padova over 0.5 goals	61.0%	62.9%	67.0%	0.94×	1.59
Padova under 0.5 goals	39.0%	37.1%	33.0%	1.12×	2.70
Padova over 1.5 goals	24.3%	23.8%	30.7%	0.78×	4.21
Padova over 2.5 goals	7.0%	7.7%	9.1%	0.84×	13.04
Padova over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.5%	1.8%	1.40×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova under 1.5 in 1st half	94.5%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Padova under 0.5 in 1st half	68.6%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Padova over 0.5 in 1st half	31.4%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Padova over 1.5 in 1st half	5.5%	5.7%	—	—	17.40

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (away no bet)	58.5%	57.5%	57.1%	1.01×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	41.5%	42.5%	42.9%	0.99×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova even goals	57.6%	56.9%	55.6%	1.02×	1.76
Padova odd goals	42.4%	43.1%	44.4%	0.97×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	90.6%	92.2%	—	—	1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals	9.4%	7.8%	—	—	12.79

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	54.3%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Both halves under 1.5 goals	45.7%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	46.8%	45.8%	—	—	2.18
Cremonese to score 2+ in a row	32.3%	29.0%	—	—	3.45
Padova to score 2+ in a row	18.3%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
Cremonese to score 3+ in a row	10.6%	12.1%	—	—	8.25
Padova to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.05

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese corners (+3.5)	91.0%	88.6%	—	—	1.13
Cremonese corners (+2.5)	85.9%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Cremonese corners (+1.5)	79.0%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Padova corners (+3.5)	70.3%	69.9%	—	—	1.43
Padova corners (+2.5)	60.8%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Padova corners (+1.5)	50.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Cremonese corners (-1.5)	49.7%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Cremonese corners (-2.5)	39.2%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Cremonese corners (-3.5)	29.7%	30.1%	—	—	3.32
Padova corners (-1.5)	21.0%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Padova corners (-2.5)	14.1%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Padova corners (-3.5)	9.0%	11.4%	—	—	8.81

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	36.2%	35.1%	—	—	2.85
12+ corners	33.8%	32.0%	—	—	3.12
9-11 corners	30.0%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	74.4%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	73.8%	72.5%	—	—	1.38
Under 11.5 corners	66.2%	67.9%	—	—	1.47
Over 8.5 corners	63.8%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Under 10.5 corners	56.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	53.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.91
Under 9.5 corners	46.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Over 10.5 corners	43.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	36.2%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Over 11.5 corners	33.8%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Under 7.5 corners	26.2%	27.5%	—	—	3.64
Over 12.5 corners	25.6%	27.5%	—	—	3.64

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even number of corners	50.0%	50.4%	—	—	1.98
Odd number of corners	50.0%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	14.6%	11.5%	14.8%	0.78×	8.73
0-0	12.0%	11.5%	9.1%	1.25×	8.73
1-0	12.0%	11.5%	11.1%	1.03×	8.73
2-0	9.1%	7.4%	7.5%	0.99×	13.48
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	9.8%	0.76×	13.48
0-1	8.0%	7.4%	6.8%	1.10×	13.48
1-2	6.1%	7.4%	7.4%	1.00×	13.48
0-2	4.6%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.46
0-3	1.4%	1.7%	2.3%	0.76×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.49
1-3	1.9%	1.7%	2.6%	0.65×	58.48
1-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
2-2	4.1%	1.7%	7.4%	0.23×	58.47
2-3	1.3%	1.7%	1.5%	1.14×	58.48
2-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
3-0	4.1%	1.7%	4.0%	0.43×	58.47
3-1	3.8%	1.7%	4.4%	0.39×	58.47
3-2	1.8%	1.7%	2.5%	0.68×	58.48
3-3	0.6%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.49
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	4.55×	58.49
4-0	1.4%	1.7%	1.1%	1.52×	58.48
4-1	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.28×	58.48
4-2	0.6%	1.7%	1.0%	1.71×	58.49
4-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.83×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.1%	13.66×	58.49
Any other score	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.48

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese leading at HT (DNB)	63.0%	65.9%	—	—	1.52
Padova leading at HT (DNB)	37.0%	34.1%	—	—	2.93

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese or draw (1X)	75.3%	75.5%	74.6%	1.01×	1.32
Cremonese or Padova (12)	68.8%	69.7%	68.0%	1.02×	1.44
Padova or draw (X2)	55.9%	57.0%	57.3%	0.99×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese or draw at HT	80.8%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Padova or draw at HT	67.3%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Cremonese or Padova at HT	51.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese or draw (1UP)	75.3%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Padova or draw (1UP)	55.9%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese or draw in 2nd half	76.2%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Padova or draw in 2nd half	64.2%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Cremonese or Padova in 2nd half	59.6%	59.1%	—	—	1.69

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	67.3%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Neither half drawn	32.7%	30.6%	—	—	3.27

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (DNB)	64.1%	62.9%	62.7%	1.00×	1.59
Padova (DNB)	35.9%	37.1%	37.3%	1.00×	2.69

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese to score first	51.6%	53.8%	—	—	1.86
Padova to score first	36.4%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
No goal scored	12.0%	10.0%	—	—	10.01

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	53.4%	51.4%	46.2%	1.11×	1.95
Both teams to score	46.6%	48.6%	53.8%	0.90×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	45.7%	44.3%	37.9%	1.17×	2.26
Both score & over 2.5	32.0%	34.3%	39.2%	0.87×	2.92
Both score & under 2.5	14.6%	12.3%	14.8%	0.84×	8.10
Not both score & over 2.5	7.7%	8.4%	8.4%	1.00×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	90.7%	89.1%	86.0%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	9.3%	10.9%	14.0%	0.78×	9.17

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	76.5%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	23.5%	24.8%	—	—	4.03

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	65.6%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Both score 2nd half only	20.4%	20.7%	—	—	4.82
Both score 1st half only	10.8%	10.7%	—	—	9.33
Both score in both halves	3.1%	5.0%	—	—	20.08

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	86.0%	85.9%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	14.0%	14.1%	—	—	7.08

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	54.2%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
A goal in each half	45.8%	46.5%	—	—	2.15

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	48.5%	47.4%	48.8%	0.97×	2.11
0-1 goals	32.0%	30.7%	26.8%	1.15×	3.25
4-6 goals	18.7%	20.2%	23.3%	0.87×	4.95
7+ goals	0.9%	1.8%	1.4%	1.33×	54.72

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to score exactly 0	39.0%	36.0%	33.0%	1.09×	2.78
Padova to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	36.4%	0.99×	2.78
Padova to score exactly 2	17.3%	19.6%	21.7%	0.90×	5.11
Padova to score 3+	7.0%	8.5%	9.1%	0.93×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese to score exactly 1	35.1%	35.6%	35.9%	0.99×	2.81
Cremonese to score exactly 0	26.3%	26.5%	22.3%	1.19×	3.77
Cremonese to score exactly 2	23.4%	23.2%	26.0%	0.89×	4.30
Cremonese to score 3+	15.1%	18.9%	16.0%	1.18×	5.30

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	48.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Cremonese leading at HT	32.7%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Padova leading at HT	19.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.39

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese -1: 2	55.9%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Cremonese -1: X	22.6%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Cremonese -1: 1	21.4%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:1)	55.9%	55.8%	57.3%	0.97×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	22.6%	24.3%	23.3%	1.04×	4.12
Cremonese (0:1)	21.4%	24.3%	19.5%	1.24×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:2)	78.6%	79.5%	80.5%	0.99×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	13.6%	11.0%	12.9%	0.85×	9.11
Cremonese (0:2)	7.8%	7.7%	6.8%	1.14×	12.94

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:3)	92.2%	92.6%	93.2%	0.99×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.5%	5.8%	4.6%	1.26×	17.19
Cremonese (0:3)	2.3%	2.4%	2.3%	1.05×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova (0:4)	97.7%	98.1%	97.7%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.4%	0.87×	83.48
Cremonese (0:4)	0.6%	1.2%	1.0%	1.19×	83.62

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (1:0)	75.3%	78.4%	74.6%	1.05×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	15.5%	17.0%	15.6%	1.09×	5.88
Padova (1:0)	9.2%	6.9%	9.9%	0.70×	14.41

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese (2:0)	90.8%	93.9%	90.1%	1.04×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	6.8%	6.5%	6.5%	0.99×	15.49
Padova (2:0)	2.5%	2.3%	3.5%	0.65×	44.22

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	43.9%	49.7%	—	—	2.01
Halves equal	30.4%	28.1%	—	—	3.55
1st half highest scoring	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese to concede	61.0%	63.4%	67.0%	0.95×	1.58
Cremonese clean sheet	39.0%	36.6%	33.0%	1.11×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese clean sheet in 1st half	68.6%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Cremonese to concede in 1st half	31.4%	31.3%	—	—	3.20

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese over 2.5 corners	88.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Cremonese over 3.5 corners	77.1%	76.1%	—	—	1.31
Cremonese over 4.5 corners	63.8%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Cremonese under 6.5 corners	62.6%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Cremonese over 5.5 corners	50.1%	53.0%	—	—	1.89
Cremonese under 5.5 corners	49.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Cremonese over 6.5 corners	37.4%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Cremonese under 4.5 corners	36.2%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Cremonese under 3.5 corners	22.9%	23.9%	—	—	4.19
Cremonese under 2.5 corners	11.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.76

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese under 3.5 goals	95.3%	96.4%	95.9%	1.01×	1.04
Cremonese under 2.5 goals	84.9%	82.1%	84.0%	0.98×	1.22
Cremonese over 0.5 goals	73.7%	74.2%	77.7%	0.95×	1.35
Cremonese under 1.5 goals	61.5%	63.5%	58.1%	1.09×	1.58
Cremonese over 1.5 goals	38.5%	36.5%	41.9%	0.87×	2.74
Cremonese under 0.5 goals	26.3%	25.8%	22.3%	1.16×	3.87
Cremonese over 2.5 goals	15.1%	17.9%	16.0%	1.12×	5.60
Cremonese over 3.5 goals	4.7%	3.6%	4.1%	0.88×	27.41

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese under 1.5 in 1st half	88.7%	89.8%	—	—	1.11
Cremonese under 0.5 in 1st half	56.3%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Cremonese over 0.5 in 1st half	43.7%	42.0%	—	—	2.38
Cremonese over 1.5 in 1st half	11.3%	10.2%	—	—	9.81

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	55.8%	56.7%	55.8%	1.02×	1.77
Padova (home no bet)	44.2%	43.3%	44.2%	0.98×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese even goals	53.5%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
Cremonese odd goals	46.5%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	39.0%	38.8%	—	—	2.58
HT 1-0	21.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	14.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
HT 1-1	8.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.03
HT 2-0	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 0-2	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
Any other HT score	2.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.41
HT 2-1	2.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 1-2	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 2-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.58

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese at HT / Cremonese at FT	25.8%	26.7%	—	—	3.74
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	21.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Cremonese at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.97
Padova at HT / Padova at FT	12.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Padova at FT	10.6%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Cremonese at HT / Draw at FT	5.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Padova at HT / Draw at FT	4.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Padova at HT / Cremonese at FT	1.9%	3.5%	—	—	28.89
Cremonese at HT / Padova at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese to score last	51.8%	51.9%	—	—	1.93
Padova to score last	36.3%	38.5%	—	—	2.60
No goal scored	12.0%	9.4%	—	—	10.66

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.0%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Cremonese to lead by 1 at any time	58.0%	55.1%	—	—	1.81
Padova to lead by 1 at any time	40.7%	39.2%	—	—	2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	39.4%	34.9%	—	—	2.86
Cremonese to lead by 2 at any time	26.4%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Padova to lead by 2 at any time	13.1%	10.5%	—	—	9.53
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.6%	10.5%	—	—	9.55
Cremonese to lead by 3 at any time	9.3%	6.7%	—	—	14.97
Padova to lead by 3 at any time	3.3%	1.6%	—	—	61.08

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese most corners	60.4%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
Padova most corners	29.6%	32.1%	—	—	3.12
Corners level	10.0%	10.6%	—	—	9.40

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.2%	87.4%	87.2%	1.00×	1.14
1-4 goals	80.0%	78.6%	82.1%	0.96×	1.27
1-3 goals	68.5%	69.0%	66.5%	1.04×	1.45
2-6 goals	67.1%	69.0%	72.0%	0.96×	1.45
2-5 goals	65.2%	68.9%	69.6%	0.99×	1.45
2-4 goals	59.9%	59.2%	64.5%	0.92×	1.69
2-3 goals	48.5%	48.7%	48.8%	1.00×	2.06
1-2 goals	48.3%	48.7%	43.6%	1.12×	2.06
3-6 goals	38.8%	39.2%	46.2%	0.85×	2.55
3-5 goals	36.9%	39.1%	43.8%	0.89×	2.55
3-4 goals	31.6%	35.4%	38.7%	0.91×	2.83
4-6 goals	18.7%	18.6%	23.3%	0.80×	5.37
4-5 goals	16.7%	18.6%	20.9%	0.89×	5.37
5-6 goals	7.2%	8.7%	7.6%	1.14×	11.45
7+ goals	0.9%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.29

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Cremonese never behind	47.4%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Padova never behind	30.0%	35.5%	—	—	2.82

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	46.1%	50.8%	46.7%	1.09×	1.97
Even number of goals	53.9%	49.2%	53.3%	0.92×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	54.7%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.3%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.1%	95.5%	96.2%	0.99×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	91.9%	92.3%	91.1%	1.01×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.0%	87.6%	90.9%	0.96×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	80.4%	82.4%	75.5%	1.09×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	68.0%	66.2%	73.2%	0.90×	1.51
Under 2.5 goals	60.3%	61.7%	52.6%	1.17×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	39.7%	38.3%	47.4%	0.81×	2.61
Under 1.5 goals	32.0%	33.8%	26.8%	1.26×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	19.6%	17.6%	24.5%	0.72×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	12.0%	12.4%	9.1%	1.35×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	8.1%	7.7%	8.9%	0.87×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	2.9%	4.5%	3.8%	1.20×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.1%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.0%	97.2%	96.0%	1.01×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	90.9%	92.5%	89.5%	1.03×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	75.5%	75.9%	68.2%	1.11×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	55.4%	55.4%	63.9%	0.87×	1.81
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	44.6%	44.6%	36.1%	1.24×	2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	24.5%	24.1%	31.8%	0.76×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	9.1%	7.5%	10.5%	0.72×	13.25
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	3.0%	2.8%	4.0%	0.70×	36.13
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.9%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.20

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	92.9%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	75.1%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	61.0%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half	39.0%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half	24.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.69
Over 2.5 in 1st half	7.1%	7.3%	—	—	13.75

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	72.8%	77.7%	—	—	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	61.2%	61.6%	—	—	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	38.8%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	27.2%	22.3%	—	—	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.77

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to score in both halves	86.5%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Cremonese not to score in both halves	76.8%	78.2%	—	—	1.28
Cremonese to score in both halves	23.2%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Padova to score in both halves	13.5%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	46.6%	50.5%	53.8%	0.94×	1.98
Only Cremonese scores	27.1%	26.1%	24.0%	1.09×	3.83
Only Padova scores	14.4%	10.9%	13.3%	0.83×	9.14
Neither team scores	12.0%	10.9%	9.1%	1.20×	9.15

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	28.3%	25.0%	25.9%	0.96×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	20.0%	22.6%	17.8%	1.27×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	20.2%	22.6%	23.0%	0.98×	4.42
Exactly 0 goals	12.0%	12.1%	9.1%	1.32×	8.28
Exactly 4 goals	11.5%	12.1%	15.8%	0.77×	8.28
Exactly 5 goals	5.2%	7.6%	5.3%	1.45×	13.09
6 or more goals	2.9%	4.4%	3.8%	1.17×	22.67

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	38.8%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
1 goal in 2nd half	34.1%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	27.2%	29.8%	—	—	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win both halves	95.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Cremonese not to win both halves	88.0%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
Cremonese to win both halves	12.0%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Padova to win both halves	4.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.24

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova to win neither half	61.7%	65.0%	—	—	1.54
Cremonese to win either half	56.5%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Cremonese to win neither half	43.5%	40.6%	—	—	2.47
Padova to win either half	38.3%	35.0%	—	—	2.86

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Padova not to win to nil	85.6%	88.2%	86.7%	1.02×	1.13
Cremonese not to win to nil	72.9%	75.3%	76.0%	0.99×	1.33
Cremonese to win to nil	27.1%	24.7%	24.0%	1.03×	4.05
Padova to win to nil	14.4%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	31.2%	27.6%	32.0%	0.86×	3.63
Cremonese by 1	22.6%	24.1%	23.3%	1.04×	4.14
Padova by 1	15.5%	16.9%	15.6%	1.08×	5.91
Cremonese by 2	13.6%	11.8%	12.9%	0.92×	8.47
Cremonese by 3+	7.8%	7.3%	6.8%	1.07×	13.78
Padova by 2	6.8%	7.3%	6.5%	1.11×	13.78
Padova by 3+	2.5%	2.7%	3.5%	0.77×	37.00