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Crewe Alexandra v Shrewsbury Town — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ENG-League Two · 2627

ENG-League Two results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Crewe Alexandra win
66.7%
Draw
20.9%
Shrewsbury Town win
12.4%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.88–0.66 1-0 15% 47% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra to win 66.7% 65.0% 42.6% 1.53× 1.54
Draw 20.9% 24.4% 26.2% 0.93× 4.09
Shrewsbury Town to win 12.4% 13.3% 31.3% 0.42× 7.51
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra & not both score 44.1% 40.2% 23.4% 1.71× 2.49
Crewe Alexandra & both teams score 22.6% 21.9% 19.4% 1.13× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 13.1% 13.2% 19.4% 0.68× 7.55
Draw & not both score 7.8% 8.4% 6.9% 1.21× 11.94
Shrewsbury Town & not both score 7.5% 8.4% 17.1% 0.49× 11.95
Shrewsbury Town & both teams score 4.9% 4.9% 14.4% 0.34× 20.46
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra & over 1.5 51.7% 48.7% 30.5% 1.60× 2.05
Crewe Alexandra & under 3.5 46.9% 45.2% 29.9% 1.51× 2.21
Crewe Alexandra & over 2.5 37.7% 34.9% 23.9% 1.46× 2.86
Crewe Alexandra & under 2.5 29.0% 26.0% 18.9% 1.38× 3.84
Crewe Alexandra & over 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 12.9% 1.39× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 17.4% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.4% 18.0% 18.9% 0.95× 5.56
Crewe Alexandra & under 1.5 15.0% 18.0% 12.3% 1.47× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 13.1% 12.9% 19.4% 0.66× 7.78
Shrewsbury Town & under 3.5 10.6% 12.9% 23.9% 0.54× 7.78
Draw & under 1.5 7.8% 7.9% 6.9% 1.13× 12.69
Shrewsbury Town & over 1.5 7.1% 7.9% 23.1% 0.34× 12.69
Shrewsbury Town & under 2.5 7.0% 7.9% 14.1% 0.56× 12.69
Shrewsbury Town & under 1.5 5.3% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.69
Shrewsbury Town & over 2.5 5.4% 7.9% 17.4% 0.45× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 3.5% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.5% 4.8% 7.4% 0.64× 20.93
Shrewsbury Town & over 3.5 1.8% 4.8% 7.6% 0.63× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (1UP) 75.6% 79.1% 1.27
Shrewsbury Town (1UP) 26.5% 26.6% 3.76
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (2UP) 66.7% 68.8% 1.45
Shrewsbury Town (2UP) 12.4% 13.4% 7.44
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra to win 2nd half 52.6% 51.9% 1.93
2nd half drawn 33.8% 34.5% 2.90
Shrewsbury Town to win 2nd half 13.6% 12.1% 8.24
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (+0.5) 87.6% 88.5% 68.7% 1.29× 1.13
Shrewsbury Town (+2.5) 80.3% 82.4% 93.4% 0.88× 1.21
Crewe Alexandra (-0.5) 66.7% 68.7% 42.6% 1.61× 1.46
Shrewsbury Town (+1.5) 59.6% 57.0% 81.3% 0.70× 1.75
Crewe Alexandra (-1.5) 40.4% 43.0% 18.7% 2.29× 2.33
Shrewsbury Town (+0.5) 33.3% 31.3% 57.4% 0.55× 3.20
Crewe Alexandra (-2.5) 19.7% 17.6% 6.6% 2.66× 5.68
Shrewsbury Town (-0.5) 12.4% 11.5% 31.3% 0.37× 8.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town to concede 84.7% 81.3% 76.1% 1.07× 1.23
Shrewsbury Town clean sheet 15.3% 18.7% 23.9% 0.78× 5.36
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town to concede in 1st half 55.4% 57.6% 1.74
Shrewsbury Town clean sheet in 1st half 44.6% 42.4% 2.36
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town under 3.5 goals 99.5% 97.6% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Shrewsbury Town under 2.5 goals 97.1% 97.6% 88.5% 1.10× 1.03
Shrewsbury Town under 1.5 goals 85.9% 87.9% 65.1% 1.35× 1.14
Shrewsbury Town under 0.5 goals 51.8% 53.7% 30.2% 1.78× 1.86
Shrewsbury Town over 0.5 goals 48.2% 46.3% 69.8% 0.66× 2.16
Shrewsbury Town over 1.5 goals 14.1% 12.1% 34.9% 0.35× 8.24
Shrewsbury Town over 2.5 goals 2.9% 2.4% 11.5% 0.21× 41.04
Shrewsbury Town over 3.5 goals 0.5% 2.4% 2.7% 0.88× 41.18
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town under 1.5 in 1st half 97.1% 95.8% 1.04
Shrewsbury Town under 0.5 in 1st half 76.9% 75.8% 1.32
Shrewsbury Town over 0.5 in 1st half 23.1% 24.2% 4.13
Shrewsbury Town over 1.5 in 1st half 2.9% 4.2% 23.83
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (away no bet) 76.1% 73.6% 62.0% 1.19× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 23.9% 26.4% 38.0% 0.69× 3.79
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town even goals 63.4% 59.1% 55.9% 1.06× 1.69
Shrewsbury Town odd goals 36.6% 40.9% 44.1% 0.93× 2.45
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 87.5% 87.9% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 12.5% 12.1% 8.28
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 59.5% 60.0% 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 40.5% 40.0% 2.50
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.8% 55.4% 1.81
Crewe Alexandra to score 2+ in a row 50.7% 51.1% 1.96
Either team to score 3+ in a row 24.6% 19.4% 5.16
Crewe Alexandra to score 3+ in a row 23.3% 19.3% 5.17
Shrewsbury Town to score 2+ in a row 9.2% 5.6% 17.79
Shrewsbury Town to score 3+ in a row 1.4% 2.5% 39.28
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.0% 13.7% 12.3% 1.12× 7.28
2-0 14.0% 11.5% 6.8% 1.69× 8.73
1-1 9.6% 7.4% 12.1% 0.61× 13.46
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 8.6% 0.87× 13.46
3-0 8.8% 7.4% 2.7% 2.71× 13.46
0-0 7.8% 7.4% 6.9% 1.07× 13.46
0-1 5.3% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
3-1 5.8% 7.4% 5.0% 1.48× 13.46
0-2 1.7% 1.7% 5.8% 0.29× 58.58
0-3 0.4% 1.7% 2.4% 0.70× 58.59
0-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.76× 58.59
1-2 3.2% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.57
1-3 0.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.59
1-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.59
2-2 3.0% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.58
2-3 0.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.06× 58.59
2-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 5.28× 58.59
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.58
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.59
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
4-0 4.1% 1.7% 1.5% 1.17× 58.57
4-1 2.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.32× 58.58
4-2 0.9% 1.7% 0.6% 2.64× 58.59
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.52× 58.59
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 10.56× 58.59
Any other score 4.3% 1.7% 2.1% 0.81× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra leading at HT (DNB) 80.4% 85.8% 1.17
Shrewsbury Town leading at HT (DNB) 19.6% 14.2% 7.06
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra or draw (1X) 87.6% 86.7% 68.7% 1.26× 1.15
Crewe Alexandra or Shrewsbury Town (12) 79.1% 75.6% 73.8% 1.02× 1.32
Shrewsbury Town or draw (X2) 33.3% 35.0% 57.4% 0.61× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra or draw at HT 88.6% 88.4% 1.13
Crewe Alexandra or Shrewsbury Town at HT 58.1% 56.8% 1.76
Shrewsbury Town or draw at HT 53.3% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra or draw (1UP) 87.6% 91.7% 1.09
Shrewsbury Town or draw (1UP) 33.3% 38.7% 2.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra or draw in 2nd half 86.4% 87.9% 1.14
Crewe Alexandra or Shrewsbury Town in 2nd half 66.2% 65.5% 1.53
Shrewsbury Town or draw in 2nd half 47.4% 48.2% 2.08
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 61.7% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 38.3% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (DNB) 84.3% 80.5% 57.6% 1.40× 1.24
Shrewsbury Town (DNB) 15.7% 19.5% 42.4% 0.46× 5.12
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra to score first 68.3% 69.7% 1.44
Shrewsbury Town to score first 23.9% 23.1% 4.32
No goal scored 7.8% 7.4% 13.51
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.3% 54.8% 47.2% 1.16× 1.83
Both teams to score 40.7% 45.2% 52.8% 0.86× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 43.8% 41.6% 39.6% 1.05× 2.41
Both score & over 2.5 31.0% 34.4% 40.9% 0.84× 2.91
Not both score & over 2.5 15.5% 21.7% 7.8% 2.80× 4.60
Both score & under 2.5 9.6% 8.4% 12.1% 0.69× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.1% 89.1% 86.3% 1.03× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.9% 10.9% 13.7% 0.79× 9.18
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 78.6% 75.2% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 21.4% 24.8% 4.04
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 68.6% 63.0% 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 18.6% 15.7% 6.36
Both score 1st half only 10.0% 10.4% 9.58
Both score in both halves 2.7% 4.9% 20.39
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.2% 85.5% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 12.8% 14.5% 6.90
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 50.5% 53.2% 1.88
A half without a goal 49.5% 46.8% 2.14
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.4% 45.2% 1.05× 2.11
0-1 goals 28.1% 26.4% 27.3% 0.97× 3.78
4-6 goals 23.5% 22.8% 26.3% 0.87× 4.38
7+ goals 1.5% 1.8% 1.5% 1.24× 55.28
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town to score exactly 0 51.8% 47.3% 30.2% 1.57× 2.11
Shrewsbury Town to score exactly 1 34.1% 33.9% 35.1% 0.97× 2.95
Shrewsbury Town to score exactly 2 11.2% 12.8% 23.6% 0.54× 7.81
Shrewsbury Town to score 3+ 2.9% 4.5% 11.5% 0.39× 22.28
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra to score 3+ 29.1% 26.5% 16.6% 1.59× 3.77
Crewe Alexandra to score exactly 1 28.7% 26.5% 36.7% 0.72× 3.77
Crewe Alexandra to score exactly 2 27.0% 26.5% 23.1% 1.15× 3.77
Crewe Alexandra to score exactly 0 15.3% 18.9% 23.9% 0.79× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra leading at HT 46.7% 52.4% 1.91
Draw at HT 41.9% 43.2% 2.32
Shrewsbury Town leading at HT 11.4% 11.6% 8.59
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra -1: 1 40.4% 42.7% 2.34
Crewe Alexandra -1: 2 33.3% 30.0% 3.33
Crewe Alexandra -1: X 26.3% 26.5% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (0:1) 40.4% 42.6% 18.7% 2.28× 2.35
Shrewsbury Town (0:1) 33.3% 30.0% 57.4% 0.52× 3.34
Draw (0:1) 26.3% 27.0% 24.1% 1.12× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town (0:2) 59.6% 62.9% 81.3% 0.77× 1.59
Draw (0:2) 20.7% 20.3% 12.3% 1.65× 4.93
Crewe Alexandra (0:2) 19.7% 15.3% 6.6% 2.31× 6.52
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town (0:3) 80.3% 85.0% 93.4% 0.91× 1.18
Draw (0:3) 11.8% 10.0% 4.0% 2.48× 9.98
Crewe Alexandra (0:3) 7.9% 5.8% 2.7% 2.11× 17.22
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town (0:4) 92.1% 94.7% 97.3% 0.97× 1.06
Draw (0:4) 5.2% 4.6% 1.9% 2.37× 21.80
Crewe Alexandra (0:4) 2.7% 1.2% 1.0% 1.24× 83.16
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (1:0) 87.6% 86.4% 68.7% 1.26× 1.16
Draw (1:0) 9.3% 6.9% 17.4% 0.40× 14.45
Shrewsbury Town (1:0) 3.1% 3.2% 14.1% 0.23× 31.58
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra (2:0) 96.9% 96.9% 85.9% 1.13× 1.03
Draw (2:0) 2.5% 2.3% 9.4% 0.24× 44.25
Shrewsbury Town (2:0) 0.6% 2.3% 4.8% 0.47× 44.38
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.3% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.7% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 26.0% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra clean sheet 51.8% 53.1% 30.2% 1.76× 1.88
Crewe Alexandra to concede 48.2% 46.9% 69.8% 0.67× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra clean sheet in 1st half 76.9% 77.5% 1.29
Crewe Alexandra to concede in 1st half 23.1% 22.5% 4.44
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra under 3.5 goals 87.8% 87.2% 95.0% 0.92× 1.15
Crewe Alexandra over 0.5 goals 84.7% 82.2% 76.1% 1.08× 1.22
Crewe Alexandra under 2.5 goals 70.9% 74.2% 83.4% 0.89× 1.35
Crewe Alexandra over 1.5 goals 56.0% 58.8% 39.6% 1.49× 1.70
Crewe Alexandra under 1.5 goals 44.0% 41.2% 60.4% 0.68× 2.43
Crewe Alexandra over 2.5 goals 29.1% 25.8% 16.6% 1.55× 3.88
Crewe Alexandra under 0.5 goals 15.3% 17.8% 23.9% 0.75× 5.61
Crewe Alexandra over 3.5 goals 12.2% 12.8% 5.0% 2.55× 7.84
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra under 1.5 in 1st half 80.6% 84.5% 1.18
Crewe Alexandra over 0.5 in 1st half 55.4% 57.2% 1.75
Crewe Alexandra under 0.5 in 1st half 44.6% 42.8% 2.34
Crewe Alexandra over 1.5 in 1st half 19.4% 15.5% 6.46
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 62.7% 60.2% 45.5% 1.32× 1.66
Shrewsbury Town (home no bet) 37.3% 39.8% 54.5% 0.73× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra even goals 51.2% 50.6% 50.4% 1.00× 1.98
Crewe Alexandra odd goals 48.8% 49.4% 49.6% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 34.3% 32.6% 3.07
HT 1-0 27.7% 28.7% 3.49
HT 2-0 11.2% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-1 9.0% 7.1% 14.08
HT 1-1 7.3% 7.1% 14.10
Any other HT score 5.1% 7.1% 14.14
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 0-2 1.2% 2.2% 44.85
HT 1-2 1.0% 2.2% 44.87
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.2% 44.91
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra at HT / Crewe Alexandra at FT 42.3% 43.2% 2.31
Draw at HT / Crewe Alexandra at FT 22.1% 22.1% 4.52
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.0% 12.7% 7.89
Shrewsbury Town at HT / Shrewsbury Town at FT 5.9% 6.0% 16.62
Draw at HT / Shrewsbury Town at FT 5.8% 6.0% 16.62
Crewe Alexandra at HT / Draw at FT 3.7% 3.4% 29.14
Shrewsbury Town at HT / Draw at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.16
Shrewsbury Town at HT / Crewe Alexandra at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.19
Crewe Alexandra at HT / Shrewsbury Town at FT 0.8% 3.4% 29.26
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra to score last 68.3% 69.9% 1.43
Shrewsbury Town to score last 23.9% 26.6% 3.75
No goal scored 7.8% 7.4% 13.51
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.2% 92.7% 1.08
Crewe Alexandra to lead by 1 at any time 75.6% 78.4% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.7% 50.5% 1.98
Crewe Alexandra to lead by 2 at any time 45.3% 43.9% 2.28
Shrewsbury Town to lead by 1 at any time 26.5% 25.2% 3.97
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 22.7% 19.6% 5.10
Crewe Alexandra to lead by 3 at any time 21.8% 19.6% 5.11
Shrewsbury Town to lead by 2 at any time 5.5% 6.5% 15.42
Shrewsbury Town to lead by 3 at any time 0.9% 1.5% 65.08
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.8% 87.4% 89.7% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 80.9% 83.5% 82.1% 1.02× 1.20
2-6 goals 70.4% 72.4% 71.4% 1.01× 1.38
2-5 goals 67.4% 69.0% 69.3% 1.00× 1.45
1-3 goals 67.2% 69.0% 65.6% 1.05× 1.45
2-4 goals 60.5% 63.5% 61.7% 1.03× 1.58
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.7% 45.2% 1.08× 2.06
1-2 goals 45.7% 48.7% 44.8% 1.09× 2.06
3-6 goals 45.0% 48.7% 47.2% 1.03× 2.06
3-5 goals 42.1% 43.6% 45.1% 0.97× 2.29
3-4 goals 35.2% 39.2% 37.5% 1.04× 2.55
4-6 goals 23.5% 24.5% 26.3% 0.93× 4.09
4-5 goals 20.6% 24.4% 24.2% 1.01× 4.09
5-6 goals 9.8% 8.8% 9.9% 0.89× 11.42
7+ goals 1.5% 2.5% 1.5% 1.74× 39.51
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra never behind 65.7% 69.9% 1.43
Shrewsbury Town never behind 16.6% 18.4% 5.44
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 50.0% 50.8% 49.6% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.0% 49.2% 50.4% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.8% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.2% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.6% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.4% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 95.6% 95.5% 96.4% 0.99× 1.05
Over 0.5 goals 92.2% 92.3% 93.1% 0.99× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 88.6% 87.7% 88.9% 0.99× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 75.0% 72.6% 72.4% 1.00× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 71.9% 72.5% 72.7% 1.00× 1.38
Under 2.5 goals 53.5% 52.4% 51.5% 1.02× 1.91
Over 2.5 goals 46.5% 47.6% 48.5% 0.98× 2.10
Under 1.5 goals 28.1% 27.5% 27.3% 1.01× 3.64
Over 3.5 goals 25.0% 27.4% 27.6% 0.99× 3.64
Over 4.5 goals 11.4% 12.3% 11.1% 1.11× 8.12
Under 0.5 goals 7.8% 7.7% 6.9% 1.11× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 3.6% 1.27× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 98.4% 97.3% 98.5% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 95.2% 97.2% 96.2% 1.01× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 86.9% 86.7% 86.7% 1.00× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 68.1% 67.3% 65.1% 1.03× 1.49
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 62.3% 62.1% 64.0% 0.97× 1.61
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 37.7% 37.9% 36.0% 1.05× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 31.9% 32.7% 34.9% 0.94× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 13.2% 13.3% 13.3% 0.99× 7.53
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 4.8% 2.8% 3.8% 0.72× 36.30
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.6% 2.7% 1.5% 1.85× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 90.6% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 71.0% 71.0% 1.41
Over 0.5 in 1st half 65.7% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 34.3% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 29.0% 29.0% 3.45
Over 2.5 in 1st half 9.4% 7.3% 13.73
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 81.8% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 76.9% 79.9% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 57.0% 54.9% 1.82
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 43.0% 45.1% 2.22
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 23.1% 20.1% 4.98
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 18.2% 17.1% 5.85
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town not to score in both halves 92.5% 90.3% 1.11
Crewe Alexandra not to score in both halves 63.6% 63.5% 1.57
Crewe Alexandra to score in both halves 36.4% 36.5% 2.74
Shrewsbury Town to score in both halves 7.5% 9.7% 10.31
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Only Crewe Alexandra scores 44.1% 46.6% 23.4% 1.99× 2.15
Both teams score 40.7% 46.6% 52.8% 0.88× 2.15
Neither team scores 7.8% 7.2% 6.9% 1.03× 13.94
Only Shrewsbury Town scores 7.5% 7.2% 17.1% 0.42× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.3% 25.0% 24.4% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 21.5% 22.6% 21.0% 1.08× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 20.4% 22.6% 20.5% 1.10× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 13.6% 12.1% 16.6% 0.73× 8.29
Exactly 0 goals 7.8% 7.6% 6.9% 1.10× 13.13
Exactly 5 goals 6.9% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.14
6 or more goals 4.4% 4.4% 3.6% 1.24× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 43.0% 44.4% 2.25
1 goal in 2nd half 33.9% 33.9% 2.95
No goals in 2nd half 23.1% 23.5% 4.26
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town not to win both halves 98.5% 97.2% 1.03
Crewe Alexandra not to win both halves 75.5% 75.1% 1.33
Crewe Alexandra to win both halves 24.5% 24.9% 4.01
Shrewsbury Town to win both halves 1.5% 2.8% 36.12
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town to win neither half 76.6% 79.7% 1.26
Crewe Alexandra to win either half 74.8% 73.2% 1.37
Crewe Alexandra to win neither half 25.2% 26.8% 3.73
Shrewsbury Town to win either half 23.4% 20.3% 4.92
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Shrewsbury Town not to win to nil 92.5% 92.0% 82.9% 1.11× 1.09
Crewe Alexandra not to win to nil 55.9% 58.8% 76.6% 0.77× 1.70
Crewe Alexandra to win to nil 44.1% 41.2% 23.4% 1.76× 2.43
Shrewsbury Town to win to nil 7.5% 8.0% 17.1% 0.46× 12.56
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Crewe Alexandra by 1 26.3% 27.8% 24.1% 1.16× 3.59
Crewe Alexandra by 2 20.7% 24.1% 12.3% 1.97× 4.14
Draw 20.9% 24.1% 26.2% 0.92× 4.14
Crewe Alexandra by 3+ 19.7% 16.9% 6.6% 2.56× 5.90
Shrewsbury Town by 1 9.3% 7.2% 17.4% 0.42× 13.80
Shrewsbury Town by 2 2.5% 2.7% 9.4% 0.29× 36.99
Shrewsbury Town by 3+ 0.6% 2.7% 4.8% 0.56× 37.05
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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