Crystal Palace v Aston Villa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 19 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 8
On target
9 – 2
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.33
Goals − xG
+2.77 – -0.60
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
48.7%
Draw
23.7%
Aston Villa win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Aston Villa have scored 14 from 15.7 expected and conceded 17 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DWLLDWWLLD last 10
scored 14
from 15.7 xG
conceded 17
from 15.7 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.72–1.24 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 58% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 2.23 xGAston Villa 0.60 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Aston Villa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Aston Villa |
Diego Carlos | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 5' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.06 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 8' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Michael Olise |
| 15' |
Aston Villa |
Moussa Diaby | 0.23 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Douglas Luiz |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Moussa Diaby | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jhon Durán |
| 16' |
Aston Villa |
Ollie Watkins | 0.11 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 18' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Aston Villa |
Ezri Konsa Ngoyo | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Guehi |
| 38' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 40' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 47' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 49' |
Aston Villa |
Jhon Durán | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Lucas Digne |
| 53' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 62' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Eberechi Eze |
| 68' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
| 74' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 76' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 81' |
Crystal Palace |
Michael Olise | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 83' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Richards |
Players
Aston Villa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Diaby MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Diego Carlos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Ezri Konsa Ngoyo DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Jhon Durán FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Robin Olsen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| John McGinn ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Digne DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| Douglas Luiz MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.29 | 0.23 |
| Clement Lenglet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ollie Watkins FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calum Chambers MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Omari Kellyman Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kaine Hayden Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Finley Munroe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Olise AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 0.55 | 0.39 | 1.49 |
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 0.27 | 0.41 | 0.80 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.25 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.93 | 0.95 |
| Nathaniel Clyne DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.66 |
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.45 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 80 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1.33 | 0.16 | 1.49 |
| Marc Guehi MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.58 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Odsonne Edouard Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jordan Ayew Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jairo Riedewald Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tomkins Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |