Crystal Palace v Brentford — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 January 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 13
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
8 – 7
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.95
Goals − xG
-0.23 – +0.08
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
47.1%
Draw
22.6%
Brentford win
30.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Brentford are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLWLDDWDD last 10
scored 14
from 19.1 xG
conceded 12
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.84–1.45 | 1-1 10% | 64% | 64% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.23 xGBrentford 1.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Brentford attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 6' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 21' |
 Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 22' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Mads Roerslev |
| 24' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 29' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 35' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 37' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Bryan Mbeumo |
| 39' |
Brentford |
Sepp van den Berg | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 43' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Brentford |
Yoane Wissa | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kevin Schade |
| 54' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 56' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Brentford |
Keane Lewis-Potter | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 65' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 69' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nathan Collins |
| 70' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 74' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 77' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Richards |
| 79' |
Brentford |
Kevin Schade | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Goal | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 84' |
Crystal Palace |
Romain Esse | 0.58 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 88' |
Brentford |
Mads Roerslev | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mikkel Damsgaard |
| 89' |
Brentford |
Bryan Mbeumo | 0.65 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Yoane Wissa |
| 97' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eberechi Eze AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0.25 | 0.13 | 0.80 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Chris Richards DC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Will Hughes MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.18 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Eddie Nketiah Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 7 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Brentford
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Mbeumo AMR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.52 | 0.02 | 0.88 |
| Yoane Wissa FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.65 | 0.82 |
| Sepp van den Berg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Mads Roerslev DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 |
| Keane Lewis-Potter DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mark Flekken GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mikkel Damsgaard AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 0.80 |
| Nathan Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.05 |
| Vitaly Janelt DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Kevin Schade AML | 84 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.15 |
| Christian Nørgaard DMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Mathias Jensen Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Yehor Yarmolyuk Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Mee Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |