Crystal Palace v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 10 May 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 13
On target
8 – 6
Shots in box
15 – 10
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.16
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.57
Goals − xG
-1.29 – -0.11
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
37.0%
Draw
32.5%
Everton win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.06 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.73–1.16 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 3.29 xGEverton 2.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Everton |
Beto | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Vitalii Mykolenko |
| 5' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.28 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
 Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.05 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.14 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 16' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Maxence Lacroix |
| 16' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 16' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.42 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Iliman Ndiaye |
| 27' |
Everton |
Tim Iroegbunam | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 32' |
Everton |
James Tarkowski | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 35' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 41' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 43' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jake O'Brien |
| 43' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | James Garner |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 46' |
Everton |
Beto | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | James Tarkowski |
| 50' |
Crystal Palace |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 52' |
Everton |
James Garner | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 56' |
Crystal Palace |
Chris Richards | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 59' |
Crystal Palace |
Daichi Kamada | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Adam Wharton |
| 65' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.58 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Daichi Kamada |
| 66' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Merlin Röhl |
| 68' |
Crystal Palace |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 76' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 78' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.47 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 85' |
Crystal Palace |
Tyrick Mitchell | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 89' |
Crystal Palace |
Adam Wharton | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Jaydee Canvot |
| 90' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tyrique George |
| 91' |
Everton |
Michael Keane | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | James Garner |
| 92' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ismaila Sarr |
| 95' |
Everton |
Carlos Alcaraz | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Thierno Barry |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iliman Ndiaye AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.42 | 1.00 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.07 | 0.60 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 0.67 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Tim Iroegbunam DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.04 | 0.21 | 0.11 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Merlin Röhl AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.18 |
| Beto FW | 71 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.56 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Thierno Barry Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Tyrique George Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 1.26 | 0.02 | 1.52 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.02 | 0.86 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 1.54 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.85 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.52 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 1.54 |
| Daichi Kamada MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.68 | 1.82 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.17 | 1.02 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Brennan Johnson AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.59 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 24 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.81 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.34 |