Crystal Palace v Fulham — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 1 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 17
On target
2 – 5
Shots in box
9 – 11
xG per shot
0.21 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.73 – 0.55
Goals − xG
-1.35 – -0.81
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
49.7%
Draw
26.5%
Fulham win
23.8%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Fulham are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LDWLLDWLLL last 10
scored 8
from 13.9 xG
conceded 14
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.48–0.94 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.60–1.07 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 2.35 xGFulham 1.81 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Fulham attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23' |
 Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kevin |
| 23' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 23' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 30' |
 Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.56 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Kenny Tete | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 32' |
Fulham |
Sasa Lukic | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 38' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.53 | Open Play | — | Goal | Nathaniel Clyne |
| 44' |
Crystal Palace |
Nathaniel Clyne | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Harry Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Fulham |
Kevin | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Justin Devenny |
| 52' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 53' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Antonee Robinson |
| 57' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Emile Smith-Rowe |
| 65' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 72' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.66 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | — |
| 73' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Maxence Lacroix |
| 76' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Kevin |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Emile Smith-Rowe | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Raúl Jiménez | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Antonee Robinson |
| 79' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Sasa Lukic |
| 90' |
Fulham |
Timothy Castagne | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 90' |
Fulham |
Tom Cairney | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Raúl Jiménez |
| 94' |
Fulham |
Joachim Andersen | 0.55 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Fulham
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joachim Andersen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Raúl Jiménez FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.14 | 0.42 |
| Emile Smith-Rowe AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.23 | 0.17 | 0.57 |
| Sasa Lukic DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.18 |
| Bernd Leno GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Antonee Robinson DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.38 |
| Jorge Cuenca DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Harry Wilson AMR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Kevin AML | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.20 | 0.45 |
| Sander Berge DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Kenny Tete DR | 55 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Timothy Castagne Sub | 35 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Tom Cairney Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Harrison Reed Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Adama Traoré Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.66 | 0.06 | 0.59 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 1.10 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Jefferson Lerma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Nathaniel Clyne DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 0.70 |
| Yeremi Pino AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 1.02 |
| Justin Devenny AMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Will Hughes MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 0.77 |
| Jaydee Canvot Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christantus Uche Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Borna Sosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |