Crystal Palace v Newcastle United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 12 April 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 7
On target
5 – 3
Shots in box
9 – 5
xG per shot
0.29 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
1.97 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-1.14 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
34.2%
Draw
30.6%
Newcastle United win
35.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Newcastle United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.1 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LLLWDWLDWD last 10
scored 15
from 14.3 xG
conceded 14
from 19.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.33 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.66–1.58 | 1-1 10% | 63% | 64% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 3.14 xGNewcastle United 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Newcastle United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.07 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Lewis Hall |
| 21' |
Newcastle United |
Anthony Gordon | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacob Murphy |
| 33' |
 Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brennan Johnson |
| 34' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.42 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Yeremi Pino |
| 38' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.51 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 42' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.61 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Lewis Miley |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Newcastle United |
Jacob Murphy | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sandro Tonali |
| 47' |
Newcastle United |
Lewis Hall | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Newcastle United |
William Osula | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Crystal Palace |
Yeremi Pino | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 68' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 68' |
Crystal Palace |
Jefferson Lerma | 0.73 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Yeremi Pino |
| 72' |
Newcastle United |
Sven Botman | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.39 | Open Play | — | Goal | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 93' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 97' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jean-Philippe Mateta |
Players
Newcastle United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sven Botman DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Jacob Murphy MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Lewis Hall DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.13 |
| Aaron Ramsdale GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lewis Miley MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.61 | 0.68 |
| Malick Thiaw DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Sandro Tonali MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Valentino Livramento DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| William Osula FW | 87 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.99 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Joelinton MC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Gordon ML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Harvey Barnes Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jacob Ramsey Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Anthony Elanga Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yoane Wissa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.65 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.45 | 0.45 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Yeremi Pino FWL | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 1.14 | 0.10 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Will Hughes MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Brennan Johnson FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Ismaila Sarr Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Adam Wharton Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 22 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.16 | 0.07 | 0.47 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Borna Sosa Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |