Crystal Palace v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 24 August 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 9
On target
4 – 1
Shots in box
7 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.30 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.10 – -0.33
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
44.6%
Draw
25.3%
Nottingham Forest win
30.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.54–1.22 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.85–1.16 | 1-1 11% | 58% | 58% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.10 xGNottingham Forest 1.33 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 9' | Nottingham Forest | Ibrahim Sangare | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 10' |
 Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.11 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Will Hughes |
| 20' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elliot Anderson |
| 28' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 30' |
Crystal Palace |
Maxence Lacroix | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Will Hughes |
| 33' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Wood |
| 36' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Daniel Muñoz |
| 41' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 46' |
Crystal Palace |
Marc Guehi | 0.25 | Set Piece | — | Shot On Post | Adam Wharton |
| 51' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Dan Ndoye |
| 54' |
Crystal Palace |
Will Hughes | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Dan Ndoye |
| 58' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Tyrick Mitchell |
| 92' | Nottingham Forest | Igor Jesus | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 92' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | James McAtee |
| 94' | Nottingham Forest | Omari Hutchinson | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Ola Aina DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Nikola Milenkovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Neco Williams DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Elliot Anderson DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Chris Wood FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 0.27 |
| Ibrahim Sangare DMC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.33 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 73 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Dan Ndoye AMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.43 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James McAtee Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Omari Hutchinson Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Igor Jesus Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ryan Yates Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ismaila Sarr FWR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Marc Guehi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Will Hughes MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.10 | 0.20 | 0.80 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Tyrick Mitchell DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.22 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.68 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Adam Wharton MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.68 |
| Justin Devenny FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Romain Esse Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jefferson Lerma Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Odsonne Edouard Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |