Crystal Palace v Wolverhampton Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Tuesday 20 May 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 12
On target
10 – 3
Shots in box
11 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
0.16 – 1.09
Goals − xG
+2.32 – +0.57
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Crystal Palace win
49.4%
Draw
24.4%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
26.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Crystal Palace are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLLDLDLLLW last 10
scored 10
from 15.7 xG
conceded 23
from 20.8 xG
Wolverhampton Wanderers are finishing below their chances — 3.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDLLLDLDD last 10
scored 9
from 12.7 xG
conceded 17
from 19.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.66–1.15 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.98–1.07 | 1-1 10% | 59% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Crystal Palace 1.68 xGWolverhampton Wanderers 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Crystal Palace attacking right
Wolverhampton Wanderers attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.12 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 9' |
Crystal Palace |
Ben Chilwell | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Ward |
| 16' |
Crystal Palace |
Ben Chilwell | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Eddie Nketiah |
| 23' |
 Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Emmanuel Agbadou | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jørgen Strand Larsen |
| 25' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Romain Esse |
| 26' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Romain Esse |
| 31' |
Crystal Palace |
Eddie Nketiah | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Ismaila Sarr |
| 33' |
Crystal Palace |
Ismaila Sarr | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 46' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 47' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 49' |
Crystal Palace |
Ben Chilwell | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jean-Ricner Bellegarde | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo Sarabia |
| 60' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Rodrigo Gomes | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 61' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Jørgen Strand Larsen | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Goal | Jean-Ricner Bellegarde |
| 67' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 71' |
Crystal Palace |
Justin Devenny | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Daniel Muñoz |
| 76' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 76' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Gonçalo Guedes | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 79' |
Crystal Palace |
Matheus França | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Chilwell |
| 79' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Matheus Cunha |
| 81' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 81' |
Wolverhampton Wanderers |
Matheus Cunha | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Rayan Ait Nouri |
| 85' |
Crystal Palace |
Eberechi Eze | 0.14 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Justin Devenny |
| 93' |
Crystal Palace |
Daniel Muñoz | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 94' |
Crystal Palace |
Jean-Philippe Mateta | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eberechi Eze |
| 94' |
Crystal Palace |
Matheus França | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
Crystal Palace
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Chilwell DML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.17 | 0.19 |
| Daniel Muñoz DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.83 |
| Chris Richards DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Dean Henderson GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maxence Lacroix DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Jefferson Lerma MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Eddie Nketiah FW | 84 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.62 | 0.04 | 0.69 |
| Romain Esse AMC | 84 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.29 |
| Joel Ward DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Ismaila Sarr AMC | 66 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.54 | 0.82 |
| Will Hughes MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Justin Devenny Sub | 41 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.14 | 0.35 |
| Matheus França Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Daichi Kamada Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Eberechi Eze Sub | 6 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.25 | 0.39 |
| Jean-Philippe Mateta Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
Wolverhampton Wanderers
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Agbadou DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.43 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Gonçalo Guedes AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jean-Ricner Bellegarde MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.48 | 0.13 |
| Rayan Ait Nouri DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.20 |
| Daniel Bentley GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Toti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Rodrigo Gomes DMR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Jørgen Strand Larsen FW | 70 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.00 |
| Pablo Sarabia AMC | 70 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.22 |
| André MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nasser Djiga DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nélson Semedo Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| João Gomes Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Matheus Cunha Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Marshall Munetsi Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Hee-Chan Hwang Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |