Defensa y Justicia v San Lorenzo — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 3 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Defensa y Justicia

13:45

San Lorenzo

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 658h before kick-off

Defensa y Justicia win

44.3%

model 40.4%

Draw

27.8%

model 29.8%

San Lorenzo win

27.8%

model 29.8%

442828

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 13.7%
1-0 13.0%
0-0 11.6%
0-1 10.7%
2-0 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	37.5%	Under 2.5	62.5%
BTTS yes	44.3%	BTTS no	55.7%
Defensa y Justicia 1+	69.9%	Defensa y Justicia 2+	33.7%
San Lorenzo 1+	62.8%	San Lorenzo 2+	26.1%

Expected goals 1.20 – 0.99. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

2-5 goals

Multi goal · usually 60%

62.7% fair odds 1.60

moderate signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

San Lorenzo not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Defensa y Justicia carry the stronger rating, 1505 Elo against 1477.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Defensa y Justicia have an estimated 44.3% win probability, against 27.8% for San Lorenzo and 27.8% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.20 for Defensa y Justicia and 0.99 for San Lorenzo.

Why Defensa y Justicia

Defensa y Justicia carry the stronger rating, 1505 Elo against 1477. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.8%. A combined 2.19 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.20 to 0.99. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why San Lorenzo can win

Nothing in the data singles out San Lorenzo.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Defensa y Justicia, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for San Lorenzo, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Defensa y Justicia: 50% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. San Lorenzo: 56% possession, 11.0 shots a match, 12.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Defensa y Justicia are the model's most likely outcome at 44.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	403030	1.20–0.99	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	403228	1.07–0.84	1-0 15%	30%	38%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to win	39.9%	36.5%	41.7%	0.87×	2.74
Draw	32.3%	30.4%	30.6%	0.99×	3.29
San Lorenzo to win	27.8%	27.9%	27.8%	1.00×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & not both score	27.9%	25.2%	27.8%	0.91×	3.97
San Lorenzo & not both score	19.2%	17.9%	17.2%	1.04×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	17.0%	17.9%	15.9%	1.12×	5.58
Draw & not both score	15.3%	17.9%	14.8%	1.21×	5.59
Defensa y Justicia & both teams score	12.0%	13.3%	14.1%	0.94×	7.54
San Lorenzo & both teams score	8.7%	8.4%	10.7%	0.79×	11.92

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia & under 3.5	34.0%	30.9%	34.9%	0.89×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	29.0%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	29.0%	26.0%	28.1%	0.93×	3.84
Defensa y Justicia & over 1.5	24.4%	21.6%	27.6%	0.78×	4.62
Defensa y Justicia & under 2.5	23.9%	21.6%	23.6%	0.92×	4.62
San Lorenzo & under 3.5	24.4%	21.6%	23.6%	0.92×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	17.0%	18.0%	15.9%	1.13×	5.56
San Lorenzo & under 2.5	17.4%	18.0%	14.7%	1.23×	5.56
Defensa y Justicia & under 1.5	15.5%	18.0%	14.2%	1.26×	5.56
Defensa y Justicia & over 2.5	16.0%	18.0%	18.2%	0.99×	5.56
San Lorenzo & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.5%	1.03×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	15.3%	18.0%	14.8%	1.22×	5.56
San Lorenzo & under 1.5	12.1%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
San Lorenzo & over 2.5	10.5%	12.9%	13.2%	0.98×	7.77
Defensa y Justicia & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	7.0%	1.13×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	3.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.3%	4.8%	2.6%	1.81×	20.93
San Lorenzo & over 3.5	3.4%	4.8%	4.2%	1.13×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1UP)	51.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
San Lorenzo (1UP)	40.8%	39.0%	—	—	2.57

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2UP)	39.9%	37.4%	—	—	2.68
San Lorenzo (2UP)	27.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.99

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	44.1%	41.3%	—	—	2.42
Defensa y Justicia to win 2nd half	31.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
San Lorenzo to win 2nd half	24.6%	23.1%	—	—	4.33

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (+2.5)	95.1%	96.3%	95.0%	1.01×	1.04
San Lorenzo (+1.5)	83.8%	82.4%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Defensa y Justicia (+0.5)	72.2%	73.7%	72.2%	1.02×	1.36
San Lorenzo (+0.5)	60.1%	62.9%	58.3%	1.08×	1.59
Defensa y Justicia (-0.5)	39.9%	37.1%	41.7%	0.89×	2.69
San Lorenzo (-0.5)	27.8%	26.3%	27.8%	0.95×	3.80
Defensa y Justicia (-1.5)	16.2%	17.6%	17.5%	1.00×	5.68
Defensa y Justicia (-2.5)	4.9%	3.7%	5.0%	0.74×	26.73

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to concede	65.5%	72.4%	68.1%	1.06×	1.38
San Lorenzo clean sheet	34.5%	27.6%	31.9%	0.87×	3.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo clean sheet in 1st half	63.3%	64.6%	—	—	1.55
San Lorenzo to concede in 1st half	36.7%	35.4%	—	—	2.83

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 6.5 corners	91.5%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
San Lorenzo under 5.5 corners	84.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
San Lorenzo under 4.5 corners	72.6%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
San Lorenzo over 2.5 corners	62.9%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
San Lorenzo under 3.5 corners	56.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
San Lorenzo over 3.5 corners	43.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
San Lorenzo under 2.5 corners	37.1%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
San Lorenzo over 4.5 corners	27.4%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
San Lorenzo over 5.5 corners	15.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
San Lorenzo over 6.5 corners	8.5%	9.9%	—	—	10.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 3.5 goals	98.9%	97.6%	98.9%	0.99×	1.03
San Lorenzo under 2.5 goals	94.7%	92.4%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
San Lorenzo under 1.5 goals	79.5%	76.3%	78.2%	0.98×	1.31
San Lorenzo over 0.5 goals	56.8%	59.5%	57.6%	1.03×	1.68
San Lorenzo under 0.5 goals	43.2%	40.5%	42.4%	0.95×	2.47
San Lorenzo over 1.5 goals	20.5%	23.7%	21.8%	1.09×	4.21
San Lorenzo over 2.5 goals	5.3%	7.6%	6.7%	1.15×	13.09
San Lorenzo over 3.5 goals	1.1%	2.4%	1.1%	2.13×	40.93

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo under 1.5 in 1st half	95.5%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
San Lorenzo under 0.5 in 1st half	71.5%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
San Lorenzo over 0.5 in 1st half	28.5%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
San Lorenzo over 1.5 in 1st half	4.5%	4.4%	—	—	22.70

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (away no bet)	55.3%	57.5%	57.7%	1.00×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.7%	42.5%	42.3%	1.00×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo even goals	59.3%	56.9%	58.4%	0.98×	1.76
San Lorenzo odd goals	40.7%	43.1%	41.6%	1.03×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	94.2%	92.9%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	5.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.06

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	56.2%	59.7%	—	—	1.68
Not both halves under 1.5	43.8%	40.3%	—	—	2.48

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	38.0%	36.5%	—	—	2.74
Defensa y Justicia to score 2+ in a row	24.1%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
San Lorenzo to score 2+ in a row	16.1%	16.4%	—	—	6.10
Either team to score 3+ in a row	10.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.31
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+ in a row	6.6%	5.6%	—	—	17.82
San Lorenzo to score 3+ in a row	3.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.30

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia corners (+3.5)	93.6%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Defensa y Justicia corners (+2.5)	88.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Defensa y Justicia corners (+1.5)	81.9%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
San Lorenzo corners (+3.5)	73.5%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
San Lorenzo corners (+2.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
San Lorenzo corners (+1.5)	51.1%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Defensa y Justicia corners (-1.5)	48.9%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Defensa y Justicia corners (-2.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Defensa y Justicia corners (-3.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
San Lorenzo corners (-1.5)	18.1%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
San Lorenzo corners (-2.5)	11.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
San Lorenzo corners (-3.5)	6.4%	10.4%	—	—	9.58

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	55.1%	46.6%	—	—	2.15
9-11 corners	27.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	17.3%	22.6%	—	—	4.42

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	88.3%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	82.7%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	75.2%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 9.5 corners	65.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	56.8%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	55.1%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	44.9%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	43.2%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	34.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 10.5 corners	24.8%	23.5%	—	—	4.25
Over 11.5 corners	17.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	11.7%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	15.5%	13.7%	14.2%	0.97×	7.28
0-0	15.3%	13.7%	14.8%	0.93×	7.28
1-1	13.7%	11.5%	13.4%	0.85×	8.73
0-1	12.1%	11.4%	10.3%	1.11×	8.74
2-0	8.4%	7.4%	9.5%	0.78×	13.47
2-1	7.1%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.47
0-2	5.2%	7.4%	4.5%	1.66×	13.47
1-2	5.6%	7.4%	7.1%	1.04×	13.47
0-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.1%	0.83×	58.52
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.98×	58.52
1-3	1.6%	1.7%	2.0%	0.88×	58.52
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
2-2	3.0%	1.7%	2.3%	0.75×	58.51
2-3	0.8%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.52
2-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	14.90×	58.52
3-0	3.0%	1.7%	2.8%	0.62×	58.51
3-1	2.5%	1.7%	3.0%	0.57×	58.51
3-2	1.1%	1.7%	1.5%	1.15×	58.52
3-3	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	14.90×	58.52
4-0	0.8%	1.7%	1.1%	1.49×	58.52
4-1	0.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.13×	58.52
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	4.97×	58.52
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.52
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	7.45×	58.52
Any other score	0.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.52

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT (DNB)	59.3%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
San Lorenzo leading at HT (DNB)	40.7%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1X)	72.2%	72.1%	72.2%	1.00×	1.39
Defensa y Justicia or San Lorenzo (12)	67.7%	69.6%	69.4%	1.00×	1.44
San Lorenzo or draw (X2)	60.1%	63.5%	58.3%	1.09×	1.57

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw at HT	80.7%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
San Lorenzo or draw at HT	71.9%	74.5%	—	—	1.34
Defensa y Justicia or San Lorenzo at HT	47.4%	52.2%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw (1UP)	72.2%	80.0%	—	—	1.25
San Lorenzo or draw (1UP)	60.1%	71.5%	—	—	1.40

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia or draw in 2nd half	75.4%	76.9%	—	—	1.30
San Lorenzo or draw in 2nd half	68.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Defensa y Justicia or San Lorenzo in 2nd half	55.9%	58.7%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	73.1%	71.4%	—	—	1.40
Neither half drawn	26.9%	28.6%	—	—	3.49

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (DNB)	58.9%	58.3%	60.1%	0.97×	1.72
San Lorenzo (DNB)	41.1%	41.7%	39.9%	1.05×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score first	47.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.19
San Lorenzo to score first	37.3%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	15.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	62.4%	56.5%	59.5%	0.95×	1.77
Both teams to score	37.6%	43.5%	40.5%	1.07×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	56.6%	47.2%	52.9%	0.89×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	23.9%	27.7%	27.2%	1.02×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	13.7%	12.3%	13.4%	0.92×	8.12
Not both score & over 2.5	5.8%	8.4%	6.8%	1.24×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	94.1%	89.1%	94.2%	0.95×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	5.9%	10.9%	5.8%	1.86×	9.20

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	81.9%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	18.1%	27.0%	—	—	3.71

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	73.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both score 2nd half only	16.2%	15.7%	—	—	6.36
Both score 1st half only	8.7%	6.8%	—	—	14.72
Both score in both halves	1.9%	4.8%	—	—	20.75

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	89.5%	86.2%	—	—	1.16
Both teams to score by HT	10.5%	13.8%	—	—	7.23

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	63.1%	58.7%	—	—	1.70
A goal in each half	36.9%	41.3%	—	—	2.42

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	44.5%	42.1%	47.4%	0.89×	2.38
0-1 goals	42.9%	42.1%	39.1%	1.08×	2.38
4-6 goals	12.3%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91
7+ goals	0.3%	1.8%	0.5%	3.95×	55.22

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to score exactly 0	43.2%	37.0%	42.4%	0.87×	2.70
San Lorenzo to score exactly 1	36.3%	36.0%	35.9%	1.00×	2.78
San Lorenzo to score exactly 2	15.2%	19.5%	15.3%	1.28×	5.12
San Lorenzo to score 3+	5.3%	8.4%	6.7%	1.27×	11.84

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	36.6%	0.97×	2.81
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 0	34.5%	32.7%	31.9%	1.02×	3.06
Defensa y Justicia to score exactly 2	19.6%	18.9%	21.8%	0.87×	5.30
Defensa y Justicia to score 3+	9.3%	10.3%	10.0%	1.03×	9.69

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	52.6%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Defensa y Justicia leading at HT	28.1%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
San Lorenzo leading at HT	19.3%	15.8%	—	—	6.35

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia -1: 2	60.1%	62.4%	—	—	1.60
Defensa y Justicia -1: X	23.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Defensa y Justicia -1: 1	16.2%	17.5%	—	—	5.72

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:1)	60.1%	61.3%	58.3%	1.05×	1.63
Draw (0:1)	23.7%	24.3%	24.3%	1.00×	4.12
Defensa y Justicia (0:1)	16.2%	17.8%	17.5%	1.01×	5.63

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:2)	83.8%	82.8%	82.5%	1.00×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	11.3%	11.0%	12.6%	0.87×	9.11
Defensa y Justicia (0:2)	4.9%	3.8%	5.0%	0.75×	26.44

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:3)	95.1%	96.6%	95.0%	1.02×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.7%	2.4%	3.4%	0.69×	42.04
Defensa y Justicia (0:3)	1.2%	2.4%	1.7%	1.38×	42.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo (0:4)	98.8%	98.1%	98.3%	1.00×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	1.3%	0.95×	83.50
Defensa y Justicia (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	0.6%	2.09×	83.59

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (1:0)	72.2%	72.5%	72.2%	1.00×	1.38
Draw (1:0)	18.6%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.87
San Lorenzo (1:0)	9.3%	6.9%	9.2%	0.76×	14.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia (2:0)	90.7%	93.9%	90.8%	1.03×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	7.0%	6.4%	6.3%	1.02×	15.53
San Lorenzo (2:0)	2.3%	2.3%	3.0%	0.76×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.5%	47.4%	—	—	2.11
Halves equal	31.8%	29.7%	—	—	3.37
1st half highest scoring	25.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.78

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to concede	56.8%	60.9%	57.6%	1.06×	1.64
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet	43.2%	39.1%	42.4%	0.92×	2.56

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet in 1st half	71.5%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Defensa y Justicia to concede in 1st half	28.5%	32.0%	—	—	3.13

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia over 2.5 corners	81.8%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Defensa y Justicia under 6.5 corners	74.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Defensa y Justicia over 3.5 corners	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Defensa y Justicia under 5.5 corners	62.7%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Defensa y Justicia over 4.5 corners	51.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Defensa y Justicia under 4.5 corners	48.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Defensa y Justicia over 5.5 corners	37.3%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Defensa y Justicia under 3.5 corners	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Defensa y Justicia over 6.5 corners	25.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Defensa y Justicia under 2.5 corners	18.2%	19.1%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 3.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	97.1%	0.99×	1.04
Defensa y Justicia under 2.5 goals	90.7%	92.3%	90.0%	1.02×	1.08
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 goals	71.2%	74.2%	68.3%	1.09×	1.35
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 goals	65.5%	67.8%	68.1%	1.00×	1.47
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 goals	34.5%	32.2%	31.9%	1.01×	3.11
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 goals	28.8%	25.8%	31.7%	0.82×	3.88
Defensa y Justicia over 2.5 goals	9.3%	7.8%	10.0%	0.78×	12.90
Defensa y Justicia over 3.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	2.9%	1.27×	27.48

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia under 1.5 in 1st half	92.2%	95.3%	—	—	1.05
Defensa y Justicia under 0.5 in 1st half	63.3%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Defensa y Justicia over 0.5 in 1st half	36.7%	35.6%	—	—	2.81
Defensa y Justicia over 1.5 in 1st half	7.8%	4.7%	—	—	21.38

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	53.7%	51.6%	52.5%	0.98×	1.94
San Lorenzo (home no bet)	46.3%	48.4%	47.5%	1.02×	2.07

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia even goals	55.9%	55.4%	55.7%	0.99×	1.80
Defensa y Justicia odd goals	44.1%	44.6%	44.3%	1.01×	2.24

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	45.3%	44.5%	—	—	2.25
HT 1-0	20.6%	24.2%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-1	15.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.34
HT 1-1	7.0%	7.1%	—	—	14.18
HT 2-0	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.71
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.88
HT 2-1	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.95
Any other HT score	1.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.95
HT 1-2	1.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.98
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.3%	—	—	44.05

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	23.6%	21.8%	—	—	4.59
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	22.2%	21.7%	—	—	4.60
Draw at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	16.3%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
San Lorenzo at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Defensa y Justicia at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.81
San Lorenzo at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Defensa y Justicia at HT / San Lorenzo at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.94
San Lorenzo at HT / Defensa y Justicia at FT	1.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.93

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia to score last	47.4%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
San Lorenzo to score last	37.3%	38.1%	—	—	2.62
No goal scored	15.3%	11.5%	—	—	8.67

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	84.7%	87.6%	—	—	1.14
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 1 at any time	51.8%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
San Lorenzo to lead by 1 at any time	40.8%	39.1%	—	—	2.56
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	32.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.41
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 2 at any time	19.8%	15.0%	—	—	6.66
San Lorenzo to lead by 2 at any time	12.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.62
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.7%	6.6%	—	—	15.17
Defensa y Justicia to lead by 3 at any time	5.8%	6.5%	—	—	15.31
San Lorenzo to lead by 3 at any time	2.8%	1.6%	—	—	63.65

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia most corners	61.2%	60.4%	—	—	1.66
San Lorenzo most corners	27.5%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Corners level	11.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	83.4%	83.5%	84.3%	0.99×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.3%	83.5%	80.0%	1.04×	1.20
1-3 goals	72.1%	72.4%	71.7%	1.01×	1.38
2-6 goals	56.8%	59.2%	60.6%	0.98×	1.69
2-5 goals	55.8%	59.2%	60.0%	0.99×	1.69
1-2 goals	55.0%	53.2%	51.5%	1.03×	1.88
2-4 goals	52.7%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
2-3 goals	44.5%	43.6%	47.4%	0.92×	2.29
3-6 goals	29.4%	30.2%	33.5%	0.90×	3.31
3-5 goals	28.4%	30.2%	32.9%	0.92×	3.31
3-4 goals	25.3%	30.2%	28.7%	1.05×	3.31
4-6 goals	12.3%	14.9%	13.3%	1.12×	6.73
4-5 goals	11.3%	14.9%	12.7%	1.17×	6.73
5-6 goals	4.1%	2.5%	4.9%	0.52×	39.33
7+ goals	0.3%	2.5%	0.5%	5.52×	39.51

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Defensa y Justicia never behind	43.9%	48.2%	—	—	2.07
San Lorenzo never behind	32.9%	35.8%	—	—	2.79

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.1%	50.8%	49.1%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.9%	49.2%	50.9%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	60.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Odd goals in 1st half	39.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.7%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half	44.3%	40.7%	—	—	2.46

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.7%	95.5%	99.0%	0.97×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	95.6%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	87.4%	87.6%	86.4%	1.02×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	84.7%	82.4%	85.2%	0.97×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	70.3%	72.5%	66.2%	1.10×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	57.1%	58.8%	60.9%	0.97×	1.70
Under 1.5 goals	42.9%	41.2%	39.1%	1.05×	2.43
Over 2.5 goals	29.7%	27.5%	33.8%	0.81×	3.64
Under 0.5 goals	15.3%	17.6%	14.8%	1.19×	5.68
Over 3.5 goals	12.6%	12.4%	13.6%	0.91×	8.10
Over 4.5 goals	4.4%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.21
Over 5.5 goals	1.3%	4.5%	1.0%	4.35×	22.27

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.6%	97.3%	99.5%	0.98×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	98.6%	97.3%	98.9%	0.98×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	95.2%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	84.8%	81.1%	82.9%	0.98×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	59.0%	55.5%	53.6%	1.04×	1.80
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	41.0%	44.5%	46.4%	0.96×	2.25
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	15.2%	18.9%	17.1%	1.11×	5.29
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	4.8%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	36.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.4%	2.7%	1.1%	2.55×	36.38
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.4%	2.7%	0.5%	5.95×	36.41

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	95.4%	96.0%	—	—	1.04
Under 1.5 in 1st half	81.0%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	54.7%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	45.3%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Over 1.5 in 1st half	19.0%	13.7%	—	—	7.30
Over 2.5 in 1st half	4.7%	4.0%	—	—	25.27

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	89.8%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	69.4%	67.2%	—	—	1.49
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	66.9%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	33.1%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	30.6%	32.8%	—	—	3.05
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	10.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.85

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to score in both halves	88.7%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Defensa y Justicia not to score in both halves	83.3%	84.4%	—	—	1.18
Defensa y Justicia to score in both halves	16.7%	15.6%	—	—	6.43
San Lorenzo to score in both halves	11.3%	13.9%	—	—	7.21

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	37.6%	39.8%	40.5%	0.98×	2.51
Only Defensa y Justicia scores	27.9%	26.1%	27.8%	0.94×	3.82
Only San Lorenzo scores	19.2%	16.1%	17.2%	0.94×	6.21
Neither team scores	15.3%	16.1%	14.8%	1.09×	6.22

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	27.6%	25.0%	24.4%	1.02×	4.01
Exactly 2 goals	27.4%	24.9%	27.2%	0.92×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	17.1%	17.4%	20.3%	0.86×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	15.3%	17.4%	14.8%	1.18×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	8.2%	7.6%	8.5%	0.90×	13.09
Exactly 5 goals	3.1%	4.4%	4.4%	1.01×	22.69
6 or more goals	1.3%	4.4%	1.0%	4.26×	22.72

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50
No goals in 2nd half	33.1%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
2+ goals in 2nd half	30.6%	33.6%	—	—	2.98

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win both halves	95.2%	97.1%	—	—	1.03
Defensa y Justicia not to win both halves	91.1%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Defensa y Justicia to win both halves	8.9%	6.1%	—	—	16.50
San Lorenzo to win both halves	4.8%	2.9%	—	—	35.03

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo to win neither half	60.9%	65.2%	—	—	1.54
Defensa y Justicia to win either half	50.6%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Defensa y Justicia to win neither half	49.4%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
San Lorenzo to win either half	39.1%	34.8%	—	—	2.87

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
San Lorenzo not to win to nil	80.8%	83.0%	82.8%	1.00×	1.21
Defensa y Justicia not to win to nil	72.1%	75.3%	72.2%	1.04×	1.33
Defensa y Justicia to win to nil	27.9%	24.7%	27.8%	0.89×	4.04
San Lorenzo to win to nil	19.2%	17.0%	17.2%	0.99×	5.88

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	32.3%	27.6%	30.6%	0.90×	3.62
Defensa y Justicia by 1	23.7%	24.2%	24.3%	0.99×	4.14
San Lorenzo by 1	18.6%	17.0%	18.7%	0.91×	5.90
Defensa y Justicia by 2	11.3%	11.8%	12.6%	0.94×	8.47
San Lorenzo by 2	7.0%	7.2%	6.3%	1.15×	13.80
Defensa y Justicia by 3+	4.9%	2.7%	5.0%	0.54×	36.98
San Lorenzo by 3+	2.3%	2.7%	3.0%	0.90×	37.07