Deportivo La Coruna v Osasuna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 November 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.9%
- 0-1 11.0%
- 1-0 10.2%
- 0-0 8.7%
- 1-2 8.2%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 44.2% | Under 2.5 | 55.8% |
| BTTS yes | 49.7% | BTTS no | 50.3% |
| Deportivo La Coruna 1+ | 69.3% | Deportivo La Coruna 2+ | 33.0% |
| Osasuna 1+ | 71.7% | Osasuna 2+ | 36.0% |
Expected goals 1.18 – 1.26. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Osasuna have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90.
- Away from home Osasuna average 1.25 xG a match.
Risk factors
- Deportivo La Coruna have scored 2.00 a match from 1.33 xG over five matches, which usually corrects.
- Deportivo La Coruna have only 4 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Osasuna have an estimated 38.3% win probability, against 34.3% for Deportivo La Coruna and 27.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.18 for Deportivo La Coruna and 1.26 for Osasuna.
Why Deportivo La Coruna
Deportivo La Coruna carry the stronger rating, 1545 Elo against 1473. Deportivo La Coruna have created 1.33 xG a match over their last five while Osasuna have allowed 1.27. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Deportivo La Coruna average 0.88 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Osasuna were missing 0.44 expected goal involvements a match against 0.10.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 27.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.18 to 1.26. Draws run at 25% in this competition.
Why Osasuna can win
Osasuna have created 1.51 xG a match over their last five while Deportivo La Coruna have allowed 1.90. Away from home Osasuna average 1.25 xG a match.
Key players
Deportivo La Coruna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (0.60), Luismi Cruz (0.22), Bil Nsongo (0.21). Osasuna's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Ante Budimir (0.61), Víctor Muñoz (0.27), Rubén García (0.20).
Availability
1 of Osasuna's top three contributors did not start their last match.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Deportivo La Coruna: 41% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.11 xG a match from set pieces. Osasuna: 47% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 9.0 faced, 0.25 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·
Osasuna are the model's most likely outcome at 38.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 82/100, data quality 70/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Deportivo La Coruna are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 4 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Osasuna are finishing below their chances — 3.1 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 4.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.18–1.26 | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
| dc-xg | 1.35–1.50 | 1-1 12% | 54% | 57% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.