Eintracht Frankfurt v RasenBallsport Leipzig — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 18 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 19
On target
5 – 8
Shots in box
11 – 16
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.31
Goals − xG
-0.44 – +0.98
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
32.3%
Draw
23.2%
RasenBallsport Leipzig win
44.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
RasenBallsport Leipzig are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWWWWLWLWL last 10
scored 22
from 24.3 xG
conceded 15
from 15.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.45–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.69–1.65 | 1-1 10% | 65% | 66% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 1.44 xGRasenBallsport Leipzig 2.02 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
RasenBallsport Leipzig attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jonathan Burkardt | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 7' |
 RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Christoph Baumgartner |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Antonio Nusa |
| 9' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Rômulo |
| 12' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rômulo |
| 21' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Hugo Larsson |
| 26' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Yan Diomande | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lukas Klostermann |
| 29' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Assan Ouédraogo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 33' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 33' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.40 | Open Play | — | Goal | Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab |
| 33' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Bote Baku | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 35' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
El Chadaille Bitshiabu | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 41' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Oscar Højlund | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aurèle Amenda |
| 46' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 48' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Christoph Baumgartner | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 49' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Oscar Højlund | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Theate |
| 51' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Lukas Klostermann | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 56' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Bote Baku |
| 59' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 62' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Brajan Gruda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Max Finkgrafe |
| 63' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Rômulo | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yan Diomande |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Aurèle Amenda | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Farès Chaïbi |
| 65' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 69' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Antonio Nusa | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Max Finkgrafe |
| 73' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Nicolas Seiwald | 0.11 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Bote Baku |
| 77' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 77' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga |
| 80' |
RasenBallsport Leipzig |
Conrad Harder | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Antonio Nusa |
| 83' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Can Uzun |
| 85' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 86' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Robin Koch |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farès Chaïbi DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.37 | 0.03 | 0.61 |
| Arnaud Kalimuendo Muinga AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.08 | 0.34 |
| Jonathan Burkardt FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Aurèle Amenda DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.41 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.40 |
| Nathaniel Brown DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.18 |
| Michael Zetterer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Hugo Larsson MC | 72 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Ayoube Amaimouni-Echghouyab AMC | 72 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.40 | 0.64 |
| Oscar Højlund MC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Can Uzun Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Elias Baum Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
RasenBallsport Leipzig
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yan Diomande MR | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.34 | 0.64 | 1.04 |
| Christoph Baumgartner MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 1.00 |
| Nicolas Seiwald DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Bote Baku DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.17 | 0.63 |
| Lukas Klostermann DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.13 | 1.05 |
| El Chadaille Bitshiabu DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.92 |
| Antonio Nusa ML | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.40 | 0.42 |
| Maarten Vandevoordt GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.89 |
| Rômulo FW | 80 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.13 | 0.91 |
| Max Finkgrafe DL | 80 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.31 |
| Assan Ouédraogo MC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Brajan Gruda Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Conrad Harder Sub | 10 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| David Raum Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Johan Bakayoko Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benjamin Henrichs Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |