Eintracht Frankfurt v Union Berlin — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
14 – 11
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
10 – 9
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.81 – 0.33
Goals − xG
-1.02 – +1.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
62.4%
Draw
23.3%
Union Berlin win
14.3%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt have scored 16 from 15.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLDWLDLLDD last 10
scored 16
from 15.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.7 xG
Union Berlin have scored 16 from 14.7 expected and conceded 23 from 23.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLLDWWDL last 10
scored 16
from 14.7 xG
conceded 23
from 23.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.15–0.98 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 2.02 xGUnion Berlin 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
Union Berlin attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 12' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Can Uzun |
| 18' |
 Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 20' |
Union Berlin |
Tim Skarke | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rani Khedira |
| 24' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 25' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Can Uzun | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 25' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 38' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Michy Batshuayi | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 41' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Farès Chaïbi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Can Uzun |
| 44' |
Union Berlin |
Janik Haberer | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.09 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 61' |
Union Berlin |
Andrej Ilic | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Janik Haberer |
| 61' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Goal | Christopher Trimmel |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 64' |
Union Berlin |
Leopold Querfeld | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Christopher Trimmel |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 66' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Rasmus Kristensen | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 67' |
Union Berlin |
Benedict Hollerbach | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andras Schafer |
| 69' |
Union Berlin |
Josip Juranovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Benedict Hollerbach |
| 72' |
Union Berlin |
Diogo Leite | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Josip Juranovic |
| 77' |
Union Berlin |
Woo-Yeong Jeong | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 90' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 92' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Sepe Elye Wahi | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Ansgar Knauff |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.76 | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Oscar Højlund DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Nnamdi Collins DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.31 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Tuta DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Hugo Larsson DMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Can Uzun AMC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.23 |
| Farès Chaïbi AML | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Michy Batshuayi FW | 61 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.56 |
| Jean Négoce AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.15 |
| Hugo Ekitike Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Mario Götze Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.41 | 0.49 |
| Sepe Elye Wahi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Ansgar Knauff Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.10 |
| Eric Junior Dina Ebimbe Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leopold Querfeld DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Diogo Leite DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Josip Juranovic DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.21 |
| Rani Khedira MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Danilho Doekhi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Frederik Rönnow GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Andrej Ilic FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Janik Haberer MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Christopher Trimmel DMR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.03 |
| Tim Skarke FW | 56 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Lucas Tousart MC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Benedict Hollerbach Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 0.15 |
| Andras Schafer Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong Sub | 18 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Tom Rothe Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marin Ljubicic Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |