Eintracht Frankfurt v VfB Stuttgart — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
19 – 8
On target
5 – 2
Shots in box
14 – 6
xG per shot
0.22 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.59 – 0.36
Goals − xG
-3.18 – -0.86
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Eintracht Frankfurt win
52.5%
Draw
24.6%
VfB Stuttgart win
22.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Eintracht Frankfurt are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDWLDLLDDL last 10
scored 16
from 17.1 xG
conceded 23
from 20.0 xG
VfB Stuttgart have scored 25 from 23.3 expected and conceded 21 from 22.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLWLDDWDLW last 10
scored 25
from 23.3 xG
conceded 21
from 22.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 2.09–1.36 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Eintracht Frankfurt 4.18 xGVfB Stuttgart 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Eintracht Frankfurt attacking right
VfB Stuttgart attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Chris Führich |
| 3' |
 Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 6' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Enzo Millot | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 9' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Chris Führich | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Millot |
| 17' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ansgar Knauff | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Tuta | 0.44 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 22' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Atakan Karazor | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nathaniel Brown | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rasmus Kristensen |
| 47' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.09 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 49' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mario Götze |
| 55' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 55' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 56' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mario Götze | 0.66 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 58' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Robin Koch | 0.08 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jean Négoce |
| 62' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ermedin Demirovic | 0.26 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 64' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Jamie Leweling | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nick Woltemade |
| 69' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 69' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Mario Götze | 0.84 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Ekitike | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Hugo Larsson | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mario Götze |
| 74' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Jean Négoce | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 78' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Deniz Undav | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Angelo Stiller |
| 86' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Ellyes Skhiri | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nathaniel Brown |
| 91' |
VfB Stuttgart |
Ramon Hendriks | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Deniz Undav |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hugo Ekitike |
| 94' |
Eintracht Frankfurt |
Nnamdi Collins | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oscar Højlund |
Players
Eintracht Frankfurt
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Götze AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 1.49 | 0.55 | 2.47 |
| Hugo Ekitike FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.70 | 0.35 | 1.06 |
| Robin Koch DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Jean Négoce AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.15 | 0.57 |
| Nathaniel Brown DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0.79 | 0.70 |
| Rasmus Kristensen DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.81 |
| Arthur Theate DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Kauã Santos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Tuta DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Hugo Larsson DMC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Nnamdi Collins Sub | 66 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.63 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Ansgar Knauff AMR | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Ellyes Skhiri Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oscar Højlund Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| Farès Chaïbi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aurèle Amenda Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atakan Karazor DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Julian Chabot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Finn Jeltsch DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Angelo Stiller DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.51 | 0.28 |
| Alexander Nübel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ermedin Demirovic FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Leweling AMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Maximilian Mittelstädt DL | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Enzo Millot AMC | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Chris Führich AML | 64 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Ameen Al Dakhil DC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nick Woltemade Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Ramon Hendriks Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Jaquez Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Deniz Undav Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Jacob Bruun Larsen Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |