Elche v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 23 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 11
On target
2 – 7
Shots in box
5 – 10
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.39
Set-piece xG
0.34 – 1.19
Goals − xG
-1.18 – +0.75
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
22.6%
Draw
21.2%
Barcelona win
56.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Barcelona have scored 23 from 21.3 expected and conceded 8 from 9.8 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWWWLWLWWW last 10
scored 23
from 21.3 xG
conceded 8
from 9.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.19–1.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–2.38 | 1-2 9% | 72% | 67% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.18 xGBarcelona 4.25 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Barcelona attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.28 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Garcia |
| 13' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.74 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 17' |
 Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.34 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gonzalo Villar |
| 34' |
Elche |
Ali Houary | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gonzalo Villar |
| 46' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.45 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lamine Yamal |
| 47' |
Barcelona |
Karim Adeyemi | 0.46 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Raphinha |
| 50' |
Barcelona |
Marc Bernal | 0.45 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 52' |
Barcelona |
Lamine Yamal | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Karim Adeyemi |
| 65' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Federico Redondo |
| 66' |
Barcelona |
Raphinha | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 68' |
Elche |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | German Valera |
| 69' |
Barcelona |
Dani Olmo | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Raphinha |
| 69' |
Elche |
Facundo Buonanotte | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Ezequiel Ponce |
| 70' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Anthony Gordon |
| 73' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 78' |
Barcelona |
Fermín López | 0.49 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Xavi Espart |
| 84' |
Barcelona |
Anthony Gordon | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Fermín López |
| 85' |
Elche |
Ezequiel Ponce | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Cepeda |
Players
Barcelona
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fermín López AMC | 90 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.99 | 0.19 | 1.18 |
| Andreas Christensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Xavi Espart DL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.49 | 1.87 |
| Eric Garcia DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 2.04 |
| Gerard Martín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.34 |
| Joan García GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.26 |
| Raphinha FW | 85 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1.69 | 1.04 | 2.10 |
| Marc Bernal DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Karim Adeyemi AML | 70 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.07 | 0.53 |
| Lamine Yamal AMR | 70 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.35 | 0.45 | 1.26 |
| Pedri Sub | 46 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Gavi DMC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Anthony Gordon Sub | 20 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.19 | 0.99 | 1.67 |
| Dani Olmo Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Jules Koundé Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| João Cancelo Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gonzalo Villar MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.70 | 0.37 |
| German Valera DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Buba Sangaré DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Chust DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Federico Redondo DC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.42 |
| Fernando Niño FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ali Houary ML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Tete Morente MR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Facundo Buonanotte Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Lucas Cepeda Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.11 |
| Martim Neto Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ezequiel Ponce Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.32 | 0.38 |
| Pedro Bigas Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |