Elche v Espanyol — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 1 March 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 9
On target
8 – 4
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.01
Goals − xG
+0.17 – +1.15
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
39.2%
Draw
25.9%
Espanyol win
34.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Espanyol are conceding fewer than expected — 3.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLWWDWLLD last 10
scored 12
from 12.1 xG
conceded 11
from 14.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.56–1.46 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.45–1.64 | 1-1 11% | 60% | 62% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.83 xGEspanyol 0.85 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Espanyol attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Espanyol |
Kike García | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pol Lozano |
| 9' |
 Elche |
André Silva | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | German Valera |
| 10' |
Elche |
Leo Petrot | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Cepeda |
| 11' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 11' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 18' |
Espanyol |
Pol Lozano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tyrhys Dolan |
| 25' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 42' |
Elche |
Marc Aguado | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 46' |
Elche |
David Affengruber | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Lucas Cepeda |
| 47' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pere Milla |
| 47' |
Espanyol |
Pere Milla | 0.40 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Edu Expósito |
| 51' |
Elche |
Lucas Cepeda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tete Morente |
| 55' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Tete Morente |
| 56' |
Espanyol |
Carlos Romero | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Edu Expósito |
| 62' |
Espanyol |
Edu Expósito | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Carlos Romero |
| 66' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Josan |
| 73' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Josan |
| 73' |
Elche |
German Valera | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' |
Elche |
Alvaro Rodríguez | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Josan |
| 82' |
Espanyol |
Jofre Carreras | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ramón Terrats |
| 82' |
Espanyol |
Ramón Terrats | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jofre Carreras |
| 85' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
| 89' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.74 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 91' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josan |
| 94' |
Elche |
Grady Diangana | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 99' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Adrià Pedrosa |
Players
Espanyol
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Romero DL | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.52 |
| Tyrhys Dolan MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Omar El Hilali DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Marko Dmitrovic GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Leandro Cabrera DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Clemens Riedel DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Urko Gonzalez MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kike García FW | 79 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Edu Expósito AMC | 79 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.47 | 0.53 |
| Pere Milla ML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.03 | 0.43 |
| Pol Lozano MC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Jofre Carreras Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Charles Pickel Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ramón Terrats Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Roberto Fernández Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miguel Ángel Rubio Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafa Mir FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1.28 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Marc Aguado MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Leo Petrot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Aleix Febas MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Matías Dituro GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| German Valera DML | 79 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.12 |
| André Silva FW | 76 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Lucas Cepeda MC | 76 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Tete Morente DMR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.39 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Victor Chust Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Josan Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.24 |
| Grady Diangana Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Alvaro Rodríguez Sub | 14 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Adrià Pedrosa Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 |