Elche v Real Oviedo — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 21 September 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2526
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
15 – 12
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
10 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.09
Set-piece xG
0.00 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.59 – -1.11
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Elche win
48.4%
Draw
32.9%
Real Oviedo win
18.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Elche are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WWLDLWDDLL last 10
scored 13
from 13.4 xG
conceded 19
from 15.4 xG
Real Oviedo are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWWDLLDLLL last 10
scored 8
from 11.3 xG
conceded 16
from 18.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.09–0.55 | 1-0 21% | 23% | 28% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Elche 1.59 xGReal Oviedo 1.11 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Elche attacking right
Real Oviedo attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.27 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 3' |
 Elche |
Josan | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | David Affengruber |
| 3' |
Elche |
Álvaro Núñez | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | André Silva |
| 8' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 13' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Salomón Rondón |
| 17' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Martim Neto |
| 25' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | German Valera |
| 40' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Josip Brekalo |
| 41' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 41' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 46' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 47' |
Elche |
André Silva | 0.12 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Rodrigo Mendoza |
| 48' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Rodrigo Mendoza |
| 49' |
Real Oviedo |
Haissem Hassan | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Leander Dendoncker |
| 50' |
Elche |
Aleix Febas | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Josan |
| 50' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 51' |
Elche |
Rafa Mir | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Josan |
| 55' |
Elche |
Martim Neto | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Aleix Febas |
| 58' |
Real Oviedo |
Leander Dendoncker | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Luka Ilic |
| 63' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.31 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
Real Oviedo |
Ilyas Chaira | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Salomón Rondón |
| 72' |
Real Oviedo |
Álex Forés | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Salomón Rondón |
| 82' |
Real Oviedo |
Salomón Rondón | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
Real Oviedo |
Álex Forés | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lucas Ahijado |
Players
Real Oviedo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Salomón Rondón FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.70 | 0.08 | 1.00 |
| Leander Dendoncker DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.24 |
| Dani Calvo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| David Carmo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Aarón GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Rahim Alhassane DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Luka Ilic AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.24 |
| Kwasi Sibo DMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nacho Vidal DR | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Haissem Hassan AMR | 61 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Josip Brekalo AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.16 |
| Ilyas Chaira Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Santiago Cazorla Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Lucas Ahijado Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Álex Forés Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Alberto Reina Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
Elche
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Silva FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.80 | 0.08 | 0.91 |
| Rafa Mir FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.52 |
| Aleix Febas DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 0.62 |
| Álvaro Núñez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.55 |
| David Affengruber DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.32 |
| Pedro Bigas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Iñaki Peña GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Josan MR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.21 | 0.55 |
| Martim Neto MC | 75 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.04 | 0.30 |
| German Valera ML | 75 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.24 |
| Leo Petrot Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Grady Diangana Sub | 15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Hector Fort Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bambo Diaby Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marc Aguado Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |