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Eldense v Córdoba — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 11 October 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Eldense win
33.0%
model 33.2%
Draw
23.9%
model 24.6%
Córdoba win
43.1%
model 42.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (4,353 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 11.6%
  2. 0-1 9.6%
  3. 1-2 8.9%
  4. 1-0 8.3%
  5. 2-1 7.7%

Goals

Over 2.552.6% Under 2.547.4%
BTTS yes55.8% BTTS no44.2%
Eldense 1+72.5% Eldense 2+37.0%
Córdoba 1+77.5% Córdoba 2+43.9%

Expected goals 1.29 – 1.49. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
54/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Córdoba carry the stronger rating, 1466 Elo against 1398.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Córdoba have an estimated 43.1% win probability, against 33.0% for Eldense and 23.9% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.29 for Eldense and 1.49 for Córdoba.

Why Eldense

Nothing in the data singles out Eldense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.9%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.29 to 1.49. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Córdoba can win

Córdoba carry the stronger rating, 1466 Elo against 1398.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Eldense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Córdoba, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Eldense: 43% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Córdoba: 56% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 12.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Córdoba are the model's most likely outcome at 43.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.6%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.22–1.50 1-1 12% 51% 54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to win 44.0% 43.0% 28.1% 1.53× 2.32
Eldense to win 31.2% 30.4% 45.4% 0.67× 3.29
Draw 24.8% 24.5% 26.6% 0.92× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba & not both score 23.3% 21.9% 13.5% 1.63× 4.57
Córdoba & both teams score 20.7% 21.9% 14.7% 1.49× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.5% 17.9% 17.6% 1.02× 5.58
Eldense & not both score 16.1% 17.9% 23.7% 0.76× 5.59
Eldense & both teams score 15.1% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.59
Draw & not both score 6.3% 8.4% 9.1% 0.92× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba & over 1.5 33.7% 30.9% 19.5% 1.59× 3.24
Córdoba & under 3.5 30.4% 30.8% 19.7% 1.57× 3.24
Córdoba & over 2.5 26.3% 26.0% 16.6% 1.57× 3.84
Eldense & over 1.5 22.8% 21.6% 32.5% 0.67× 4.62
Eldense & under 3.5 22.7% 21.6% 32.3% 0.67× 4.62
Eldense & over 2.5 17.9% 18.0% 26.2% 0.69× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 17.6% 1.02× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 18.1% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Córdoba & under 2.5 17.7% 18.0% 11.6% 1.56× 5.56
Córdoba & over 3.5 13.6% 12.9% 8.5% 1.51× 7.77
Eldense & under 2.5 13.3% 12.9% 19.3% 0.67× 7.77
Córdoba & under 1.5 10.2% 12.9% 8.7% 1.47× 7.77
Eldense & over 3.5 8.6% 7.9% 13.2% 0.59× 12.70
Eldense & under 1.5 8.4% 7.9% 13.0% 0.60× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 6.3% 7.9% 9.1% 0.86× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 6.4% 1.23× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (1UP) 59.6% 58.3% 1.72
Eldense (1UP) 48.6% 43.4% 2.30
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (2UP) 44.0% 47.7% 2.09
Eldense (2UP) 31.2% 31.0% 3.22
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to win 2nd half 38.3% 36.3% 2.75
2nd half drawn 34.9% 34.3% 2.91
Eldense to win 2nd half 26.7% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (+2.5) 95.8% 96.3% 92.3% 1.04× 1.04
Córdoba (+1.5) 87.1% 88.5% 80.4% 1.10× 1.13
Córdoba (+0.5) 68.8% 68.7% 54.6% 1.26× 1.46
Eldense (+0.5) 56.0% 57.0% 71.9% 0.79× 1.75
Córdoba (-0.5) 44.0% 43.0% 28.1% 1.53× 2.33
Eldense (-0.5) 31.2% 31.3% 45.4% 0.69× 3.20
Eldense (-1.5) 12.9% 11.5% 19.6% 0.59× 8.69
Eldense (-2.5) 4.2% 3.7% 7.7% 0.49× 26.78
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to concede 70.4% 76.5% 77.5% 0.99× 1.31
Córdoba clean sheet 29.6% 23.5% 22.5% 1.05× 4.25
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba clean sheet in 1st half 59.2% 58.0% 1.73
Córdoba to concede in 1st half 40.8% 42.0% 2.38
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba over 2.5 corners 79.9% 75.9% 1.32
Córdoba under 6.5 corners 77.6% 75.9% 1.32
Córdoba under 5.5 corners 66.0% 67.5% 1.48
Córdoba over 3.5 corners 64.6% 61.8% 1.62
Córdoba under 4.5 corners 51.5% 53.1% 1.88
Córdoba over 4.5 corners 48.5% 46.9% 2.13
Córdoba under 3.5 corners 35.4% 38.2% 2.62
Córdoba over 5.5 corners 34.0% 32.5% 3.08
Córdoba over 6.5 corners 22.4% 24.1% 4.16
Córdoba under 2.5 corners 20.1% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba under 3.5 goals 93.5% 92.4% 97.0% 0.95× 1.08
Córdoba under 2.5 goals 81.0% 81.4% 89.2% 0.91× 1.23
Córdoba over 0.5 goals 77.6% 76.2% 67.3% 1.13× 1.31
Córdoba under 1.5 goals 55.9% 59.5% 69.5% 0.86× 1.68
Córdoba over 1.5 goals 44.1% 40.5% 30.5% 1.33× 2.47
Córdoba under 0.5 goals 22.4% 23.8% 32.7% 0.73× 4.21
Córdoba over 2.5 goals 19.0% 18.6% 10.8% 1.72× 5.38
Córdoba over 3.5 goals 6.5% 7.6% 3.0% 2.51× 13.08
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba under 1.5 in 1st half 87.9% 89.4% 1.12
Córdoba under 0.5 in 1st half 55.0% 56.0% 1.79
Córdoba over 0.5 in 1st half 45.0% 44.0% 2.27
Córdoba over 1.5 in 1st half 12.1% 10.6% 9.46
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense (away no bet) 55.7% 57.5% 63.1% 0.91× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 44.3% 42.5% 36.9% 1.15× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba even goals 52.5% 52.8% 54.7% 0.97× 1.90
Córdoba odd goals 47.5% 47.2% 45.3% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.4% 87.8% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.6% 12.2% 8.17
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.4% 58.0% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.6% 42.0% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.4% 55.2% 1.81
Córdoba to score 2+ in a row 35.7% 36.4% 2.75
Eldense to score 2+ in a row 25.9% 25.1% 3.98
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.3% 16.5% 6.08
Córdoba to score 3+ in a row 12.4% 12.1% 8.26
Eldense to score 3+ in a row 7.2% 5.6% 17.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense corners (+3.5) 88.5% 84.5% 1.18
Eldense corners (+2.5) 82.6% 79.7% 1.25
Eldense corners (+1.5) 74.9% 70.7% 1.41
Córdoba corners (+3.5) 74.4% 70.7% 1.41
Córdoba corners (+2.5) 65.4% 65.8% 1.52
Córdoba corners (+1.5) 55.3% 57.1% 1.75
Eldense corners (-1.5) 44.7% 42.9% 2.33
Eldense corners (-2.5) 34.6% 34.2% 2.92
Eldense corners (-3.5) 25.6% 29.3% 3.42
Córdoba corners (-1.5) 25.1% 29.3% 3.42
Córdoba corners (-2.5) 17.4% 20.3% 4.93
Córdoba corners (-3.5) 11.5% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 36.9% 33.7% 2.97
0-8 corners 32.8% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 30.3% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 76.8% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 71.7% 72.7% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 67.2% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 63.1% 63.4% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 56.9% 57.7% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.4% 53.3% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.6% 46.7% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 43.1% 42.3% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 36.9% 36.6% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 32.8% 32.3% 3.09
Over 12.5 corners 28.3% 27.3% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 23.2% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.8% 11.4% 11.3% 1.02× 8.74
0-1 10.2% 11.4% 8.7% 1.31× 8.74
1-0 8.4% 7.4% 13.0% 0.57× 13.47
1-2 9.0% 7.4% 7.0% 1.05× 13.47
0-2 7.4% 7.4% 2.9% 2.52× 13.47
2-1 7.4% 7.4% 10.1% 0.74× 13.47
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 5.7% 1.31× 13.47
0-0 6.3% 7.4% 9.1% 0.81× 13.47
2-0 4.9% 1.7% 6.4% 0.27× 58.50
0-3 3.7% 1.7% 1.3% 1.35× 58.50
0-4 1.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
1-3 4.5% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.50
1-4 1.7% 1.7% 0.8% 2.03× 58.51
2-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.3% 0.74× 58.51
2-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
3-0 2.0% 1.7% 3.0% 0.56× 58.51
3-1 3.0% 1.7% 4.5% 0.38× 58.51
3-2 2.2% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.51
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.7% 2.32× 58.52
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.52
4-0 0.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.52
4-1 0.9% 1.7% 1.9% 0.90× 58.52
4-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.2% 1.48× 58.52
4-3 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 5.42× 58.52
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 8.13× 58.52
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 2.7% 0.63× 58.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba leading at HT (DNB) 54.3% 55.8% 1.79
Eldense leading at HT (DNB) 45.7% 44.2% 2.26
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense or Córdoba (12) 75.2% 75.5% 73.4% 1.03× 1.32
Córdoba or draw (X2) 68.8% 69.6% 54.6% 1.28× 1.44
Eldense or draw (1X) 56.0% 57.0% 71.9% 0.79× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba or draw at HT 74.2% 74.6% 1.34
Eldense or draw at HT 69.3% 66.4% 1.51
Eldense or Córdoba at HT 56.5% 56.6% 1.77
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba or draw (1UP) 68.8% 75.9% 1.32
Eldense or draw (1UP) 56.0% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba or draw in 2nd half 73.3% 73.7% 1.36
Eldense or Córdoba in 2nd half 65.1% 65.7% 1.52
Eldense or draw in 2nd half 61.7% 63.7% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.6% 61.8% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.4% 38.3% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (DNB) 58.5% 58.3% 38.2% 1.53× 1.72
Eldense (DNB) 41.5% 41.7% 61.8% 0.68× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to score first 51.6% 53.8% 1.86
Eldense to score first 42.0% 41.8% 2.39
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.3% 51.5% 53.9% 0.95× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.7% 48.5% 46.1% 1.05× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.6% 41.6% 42.8% 0.97× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 37.3% 38.5% 39.9% 0.97× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.8% 12.3% 11.3% 1.09× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 8.4% 8.4% 6.3% 1.33× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.8% 83.1% 85.7% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.2% 16.9% 14.3% 1.18× 5.92
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.5% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.5% 25.9% 3.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.6% 59.6% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.1% 21.0% 4.77
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.6% 9.47
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 14.89
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.7% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.3% 17.2% 5.81
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.6% 53.4% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.4% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.2% 47.4% 41.4% 1.14× 2.11
4-6 goals 26.8% 26.4% 26.5% 1.00× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.9% 22.8% 30.7% 0.74× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.8% 1.6% 1.15× 55.04
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to score exactly 1 33.5% 33.9% 36.9% 0.92× 2.95
Córdoba to score exactly 2 25.1% 27.4% 19.8% 1.39× 3.65
Córdoba to score exactly 0 22.4% 22.4% 32.7% 0.69× 4.46
Córdoba to score 3+ 19.0% 19.6% 10.8% 1.81× 5.11
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense to score exactly 1 36.0% 35.6% 35.6% 1.00× 2.81
Eldense to score exactly 0 29.6% 26.5% 22.5% 1.18× 3.77
Eldense to score exactly 2 21.9% 23.3% 25.0% 0.93× 4.30
Eldense to score 3+ 12.4% 14.3% 17.0% 0.84× 6.98
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.5% 43.4% 2.30
Córdoba leading at HT 30.7% 33.6% 2.98
Eldense leading at HT 25.8% 25.4% 3.94
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba -1: 1 56.0% 56.6% 1.77
Córdoba -1: X 22.5% 23.6% 4.24
Córdoba -1: 2 21.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:1) 68.8% 65.5% 54.6% 1.20× 1.53
Draw (0:1) 18.4% 17.8% 26.0% 0.69× 5.62
Eldense (0:1) 12.9% 13.9% 19.6% 0.71× 7.22
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:2) 87.1% 86.9% 80.4% 1.08× 1.15
Draw (0:2) 8.7% 7.7% 12.0% 0.64× 12.94
Eldense (0:2) 4.2% 3.8% 7.7% 0.49× 26.49
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:3) 95.8% 96.6% 92.3% 1.05× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 3.1% 2.4% 5.4% 0.44× 42.07
Eldense (0:3) 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 0.98× 42.16
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (0:4) 98.9% 98.1% 97.6% 1.01× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 2.1% 0.57× 83.51
Eldense (0:4) 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 2.84× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense (1:0) 56.0% 58.0% 71.9% 0.81× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 22.5% 21.8% 18.0% 1.21× 4.60
Córdoba (1:0) 21.5% 21.7% 10.2% 2.13× 4.60
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense (2:0) 78.5% 80.4% 89.8% 0.90× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 13.1% 10.4% 7.0% 1.48× 9.62
Córdoba (2:0) 8.4% 6.4% 3.3% 1.98× 15.51
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.5% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.4% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense to concede 77.6% 75.9% 67.3% 1.13× 1.32
Eldense clean sheet 22.4% 24.1% 32.7% 0.74× 4.15
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense clean sheet in 1st half 55.0% 56.0% 1.79
Eldense to concede in 1st half 45.0% 44.0% 2.27
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense over 2.5 corners 88.0% 86.3% 1.16
Eldense over 3.5 corners 76.8% 76.6% 1.31
Eldense under 6.5 corners 63.8% 62.3% 1.61
Eldense over 4.5 corners 63.2% 62.3% 1.61
Eldense under 5.5 corners 50.9% 52.8% 1.90
Eldense over 5.5 corners 49.2% 47.2% 2.12
Eldense under 4.5 corners 36.8% 37.7% 2.65
Eldense over 6.5 corners 36.2% 37.7% 2.65
Eldense under 3.5 corners 23.2% 23.4% 4.27
Eldense under 2.5 corners 12.0% 13.7% 7.28
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense under 3.5 goals 96.5% 96.4% 93.7% 1.03× 1.04
Eldense under 2.5 goals 87.6% 87.2% 83.0% 1.05× 1.15
Eldense over 0.5 goals 70.4% 74.2% 77.5% 0.96× 1.35
Eldense under 1.5 goals 65.6% 67.8% 58.0% 1.17× 1.47
Eldense over 1.5 goals 34.4% 32.2% 42.0% 0.77× 3.11
Eldense under 0.5 goals 29.6% 25.8% 22.5% 1.15× 3.88
Eldense over 2.5 goals 12.4% 12.8% 17.0% 0.75× 7.84
Eldense over 3.5 goals 3.5% 3.6% 6.3% 0.58× 27.43
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense under 1.5 in 1st half 90.3% 95.2% 1.05
Eldense under 0.5 in 1st half 59.2% 57.6% 1.74
Eldense over 0.5 in 1st half 40.8% 42.4% 2.36
Eldense over 1.5 in 1st half 9.7% 4.8% 20.67
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba (home no bet) 63.9% 60.2% 51.3% 1.17× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 36.1% 39.8% 48.7% 0.82× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense even goals 54.4% 50.6% 51.8% 0.98× 1.98
Eldense odd goals 45.6% 49.4% 48.2% 1.02× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.5% 32.1% 3.11
HT 0-1 19.5% 18.8% 5.31
HT 1-0 17.1% 18.8% 5.33
HT 1-1 10.1% 11.0% 9.13
HT 0-2 5.8% 7.0% 14.20
HT 2-0 4.5% 2.3% 43.73
Any other HT score 3.9% 2.3% 43.78
HT 1-2 3.1% 2.3% 43.84
HT 2-1 2.7% 2.3% 43.87
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 44.01
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba at HT / Córdoba at FT 24.2% 21.8% 4.59
Eldense at HT / Eldense at FT 17.6% 16.8% 5.94
Draw at HT / Córdoba at FT 16.9% 16.8% 5.95
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.8% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Eldense at FT 11.8% 12.7% 7.90
Eldense at HT / Draw at FT 5.3% 6.0% 16.64
Córdoba at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.5% 28.81
Eldense at HT / Córdoba at FT 2.9% 3.5% 28.87
Córdoba at HT / Eldense at FT 1.8% 3.5% 28.92
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to score last 51.6% 51.8% 1.93
Eldense to score last 42.1% 40.3% 2.48
No goal scored 6.3% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 93.7% 92.6% 1.08
Córdoba to lead by 1 at any time 59.6% 55.2% 1.81
Eldense to lead by 1 at any time 48.6% 44.1% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.1% 44.0% 2.27
Córdoba to lead by 2 at any time 27.8% 25.3% 3.95
Eldense to lead by 2 at any time 18.5% 15.0% 6.67
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.1% 14.9% 6.69
Córdoba to lead by 3 at any time 10.5% 10.4% 9.65
Eldense to lead by 3 at any time 5.7% 6.5% 15.32
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense most corners 55.4% 55.4% 1.81
Córdoba most corners 34.3% 34.3% 2.92
Corners level 10.3% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.4% 85.8% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.8% 78.6% 78.1% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.0% 72.4% 67.8% 1.07× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.3% 69.0% 64.2% 1.07× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.8% 63.4% 63.0% 1.01× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.1% 63.4% 56.6% 1.12× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.9% 48.7% 47.5% 1.02× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.2% 48.7% 41.4% 1.17× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.2% 48.7% 44.0% 1.11× 2.06
1-2 goals 42.7% 43.6% 42.0% 1.04× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.1% 39.2% 36.3% 1.08× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.8% 30.2% 26.5% 1.14× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.1% 24.5% 22.9% 1.07× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.8% 14.9% 11.4% 1.31× 6.73
7+ goals 2.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.61× 39.42
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba never behind 45.1% 56.4% 1.77
Eldense never behind 34.1% 35.9% 2.79
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.6% 50.8% 48.5% 1.05× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.4% 49.2% 51.5% 0.95× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.2% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.8% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 90.9% 1.02× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.1% 87.6% 87.2% 1.01× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.1% 77.4% 69.3% 1.12× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.1% 72.5% 72.0% 1.01× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.0% 52.4% 49.0% 1.07× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.0% 47.6% 51.0% 0.93× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 28.9% 27.5% 28.0% 0.98× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.9% 22.6% 30.7% 0.74× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 13.9% 12.4% 12.8% 0.96× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 9.1% 0.84× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 5.2% 1.50× 12.95
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.8% 97.2% 98.4% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.7% 92.5% 94.4% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.6% 81.1% 84.9% 0.96× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.2% 67.4% 61.5% 1.10× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.9% 62.1% 64.6% 0.96× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.1% 37.9% 35.4% 1.07× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.9% 32.6% 38.5% 0.85× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.4% 18.9% 15.1% 1.25× 5.29
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.3% 7.5% 5.6% 1.35× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.2% 2.8% 1.6% 1.68× 36.36
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.6% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.1% 69.2% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.5% 69.1% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.5% 30.9% 3.24
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.9% 30.8% 3.24
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.4% 10.9% 9.20
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.8% 80.0% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.9% 53.4% 1.87
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.1% 46.6% 2.15
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.5% 20.0% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.2% 20.0% 5.00
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense not to score in both halves 79.6% 78.3% 1.28
Córdoba not to score in both halves 73.3% 74.1% 1.35
Córdoba to score in both halves 26.7% 25.9% 3.86
Eldense to score in both halves 20.4% 21.7% 4.62
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.3% 53.9% 53.9% 1.00× 1.85
Only Córdoba scores 23.3% 22.4% 13.5% 1.66× 4.47
Only Eldense scores 16.1% 16.1% 23.7% 0.68× 6.22
Neither team scores 6.3% 7.2% 9.1% 0.79× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.1% 22.6% 20.4% 1.11× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 21.1% 1.07× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.6% 17.4% 21.7% 0.81× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.0% 12.1% 15.2% 0.79× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 8.1% 7.6% 7.8% 0.98× 13.09
Exactly 0 goals 6.3% 7.6% 9.1% 0.83× 13.10
6 or more goals 5.8% 7.6% 5.2% 1.48× 13.10
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.1% 44.7% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.6% 33.6% 2.97
No goals in 2nd half 20.2% 22.9% 4.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense not to win both halves 93.1% 94.0% 1.06
Córdoba not to win both halves 88.3% 88.0% 1.14
Córdoba to win both halves 11.7% 12.0% 8.36
Eldense to win both halves 6.9% 6.0% 16.64
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Córdoba to win either half 57.3% 59.4% 1.68
Eldense to win neither half 54.3% 55.1% 1.82
Eldense to win either half 45.7% 44.9% 2.23
Córdoba to win neither half 42.7% 40.6% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eldense not to win to nil 83.9% 83.0% 76.3% 1.09× 1.20
Córdoba not to win to nil 76.7% 78.0% 86.5% 0.90× 1.28
Córdoba to win to nil 23.3% 22.0% 13.5% 1.63× 4.55
Eldense to win to nil 16.1% 17.0% 23.7% 0.72× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.8% 24.2% 26.6% 0.91× 4.14
Córdoba by 1 22.5% 24.2% 18.0% 1.34× 4.14
Eldense by 1 18.4% 17.0% 26.0% 0.65× 5.90
Córdoba by 2 13.1% 11.8% 7.0% 1.68× 8.47
Eldense by 2 8.7% 7.3% 12.0% 0.60× 13.79
Córdoba by 3+ 8.4% 7.3% 3.3% 2.22× 13.79
Eldense by 3+ 4.2% 2.7% 7.7% 0.35× 37.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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