Eldense v Eibar — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 19 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Eldense

12:30

Eibar

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 321h before kick-off

Eldense win

26.6%

model 27.5%

Draw

26.6%

model 26.7%

Eibar win

46.9%

model 45.8%

272747

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

0-1 13.3%
1-1 12.5%
1-0 9.7%
0-0 9.1%
0-2 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.5	41.8%	Under 2.5	58.2%
BTTS yes	46.5%	BTTS no	53.5%
Eldense 1+	62.8%	Eldense 2+	26.1%
Eibar 1+	74.5%	Eibar 2+	39.6%

Expected goals 0.99 – 1.37. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

51/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

94%

★ Best pick

Eibar or draw (X2)

Double chance · usually 55%

72.3% fair odds 1.38

strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Eldense not to score in both halves

Score both halves

84.3% fair odds 1.19

moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Eibar carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1398.
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Eibar have an estimated 46.9% win probability, against 26.6% for Eldense and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.99 for Eldense and 1.36 for Eibar.

Why Eldense

Nothing in the data singles out Eldense.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. A combined 2.35 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Eibar can win

Eibar carry the stronger rating, 1567 Elo against 1398. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Eldense, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Eibar, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Eldense: 43% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 13.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Eibar: 43% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Eibar are the model's most likely outcome at 46.9%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 13.3%. Confidence 51/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	282746	0.99–1.37	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	212752	0.77–1.38	0-1 16%	36%	40%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to win	51.7%	51.4%	28.1%	1.83×	1.94
Draw	27.1%	27.9%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Eldense to win	21.2%	24.4%	45.4%	0.54×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar & not both score	35.1%	33.1%	13.5%	2.46×	3.02
Eibar & both teams score	16.6%	17.9%	14.7%	1.22×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	15.7%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
Eldense & not both score	13.9%	13.3%	23.7%	0.56×	7.55
Draw & not both score	11.4%	13.2%	9.1%	1.45×	7.55
Eldense & both teams score	7.3%	8.4%	21.9%	0.38×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar & under 3.5	41.2%	40.3%	19.7%	2.05×	2.48
Eibar & over 1.5	35.2%	34.9%	19.5%	1.79×	2.87
Eibar & under 2.5	27.6%	26.0%	11.6%	2.25×	3.84
Eibar & over 2.5	24.1%	21.6%	16.6%	1.30×	4.62
Draw & under 2.5	23.5%	21.6%	20.3%	1.07×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	23.5%	21.6%	20.3%	1.07×	4.62
Eldense & under 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	32.3%	0.56×	5.56
Eibar & under 1.5	16.5%	18.0%	8.7%	2.06×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.7%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Eldense & under 2.5	12.8%	12.9%	19.3%	0.66×	7.78
Eldense & over 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	32.5%	0.40×	7.78
Draw & under 1.5	11.4%	12.9%	9.1%	1.41×	7.78
Eibar & over 3.5	10.5%	12.9%	8.5%	1.51×	7.78
Eldense & under 1.5	9.3%	7.9%	13.0%	0.60×	12.69
Eldense & over 2.5	8.4%	7.9%	26.2%	0.30×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.4%	0.74×	20.93
Draw & over 3.5	3.7%	4.8%	6.4%	0.74×	20.93
Eldense & over 3.5	2.8%	4.8%	13.2%	0.36×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (1UP)	62.6%	63.2%	—	—	1.58
Eldense (1UP)	35.0%	33.1%	—	—	3.02

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (2UP)	51.7%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Eldense (2UP)	21.2%	23.4%	—	—	4.27

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to win 2nd half	42.4%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	39.3%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Eldense to win 2nd half	18.4%	19.3%	—	—	5.18

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (+2.5)	98.6%	96.3%	92.3%	1.04×	1.04
Eibar (+1.5)	93.8%	92.1%	80.4%	1.15×	1.09
Eibar (+0.5)	78.8%	78.5%	54.6%	1.44×	1.27
Eibar (-0.5)	51.7%	52.3%	28.1%	1.86×	1.91
Eldense (+0.5)	48.3%	47.7%	71.9%	0.66×	2.10
Eldense (-0.5)	21.2%	21.5%	45.4%	0.47×	4.65
Eldense (-1.5)	6.2%	7.9%	19.6%	0.40×	12.68
Eldense (-2.5)	1.4%	3.7%	7.7%	0.48×	26.92

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to concede	53.5%	56.0%	77.5%	0.72×	1.79
Eibar clean sheet	46.5%	44.0%	22.5%	1.96×	2.27

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar clean sheet in 1st half	71.9%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Eibar to concede in 1st half	28.1%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar under 6.5 corners	91.3%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Eibar under 5.5 corners	83.9%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Eibar under 4.5 corners	72.2%	71.5%	—	—	1.40
Eibar over 2.5 corners	63.5%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Eibar under 3.5 corners	56.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Eibar over 3.5 corners	44.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Eibar under 2.5 corners	36.5%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Eibar over 4.5 corners	27.8%	28.5%	—	—	3.52
Eibar over 5.5 corners	16.1%	18.5%	—	—	5.39
Eibar over 6.5 corners	8.7%	9.9%	—	—	10.06

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar under 3.5 goals	94.9%	92.4%	97.0%	0.95×	1.08
Eibar under 2.5 goals	84.0%	81.5%	89.2%	0.91×	1.23
Eibar over 0.5 goals	74.7%	71.9%	67.3%	1.07×	1.39
Eibar under 1.5 goals	60.1%	62.9%	69.5%	0.91×	1.59
Eibar over 1.5 goals	39.9%	37.1%	30.5%	1.22×	2.70
Eibar under 0.5 goals	25.3%	28.1%	32.7%	0.86×	3.56
Eibar over 2.5 goals	16.0%	18.5%	10.8%	1.71×	5.40
Eibar over 3.5 goals	5.1%	7.6%	3.0%	2.50×	13.09

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar under 1.5 in 1st half	89.4%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Eibar under 0.5 in 1st half	57.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Eibar over 0.5 in 1st half	42.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70
Eibar over 1.5 in 1st half	10.6%	10.3%	—	—	9.67

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (away no bet)	56.1%	57.5%	36.9%	1.56×	1.74
Eldense (away no bet)	43.9%	42.5%	63.1%	0.67×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar even goals	53.2%	52.7%	54.7%	0.96×	1.90
Eibar odd goals	46.8%	47.3%	45.3%	1.04×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.1%	92.3%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.9%	7.7%	—	—	13.07

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	50.1%	50.0%	—	—	2.00
Not both halves under 1.5	49.9%	50.0%	—	—	2.00

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	44.9%	38.4%	—	—	2.61
Eibar to score 2+ in a row	34.6%	28.6%	—	—	3.50
Either team to score 3+ in a row	14.4%	12.1%	—	—	8.30
Eldense to score 2+ in a row	13.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.33
Eibar to score 3+ in a row	12.1%	12.0%	—	—	8.35
Eldense to score 3+ in a row	2.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.61

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense corners (+3.5)	96.9%	95.8%	—	—	1.04
Eldense corners (+2.5)	94.4%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Eldense corners (+1.5)	90.5%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Eldense corners (-1.5)	67.9%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Eldense corners (-2.5)	57.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Eibar corners (+3.5)	52.9%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Eldense corners (-3.5)	47.1%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Eibar corners (+2.5)	42.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Eibar corners (+1.5)	32.1%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Eibar corners (-1.5)	9.5%	10.4%	—	—	9.57
Eibar corners (-2.5)	5.6%	10.4%	—	—	9.59
Eibar corners (-3.5)	3.1%	4.2%	—	—	23.57

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	35.3%	33.7%	—	—	2.97
0-8 corners	34.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	75.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 12.5 corners	73.1%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Over 8.5 corners	65.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	64.7%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 10.5 corners	55.2%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	55.0%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 9.5 corners	45.0%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 10.5 corners	44.8%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	35.3%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	34.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	26.9%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Under 7.5 corners	24.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.25

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1	16.5%	13.8%	8.7%	1.58×	7.27
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	11.3%	1.02×	8.73
0-0	11.4%	11.5%	9.1%	1.25×	8.73
0-2	11.1%	11.5%	2.9%	3.89×	8.73
1-0	9.3%	7.4%	13.0%	0.57×	13.46
1-2	8.5%	7.4%	7.0%	1.05×	13.46
0-3	5.1%	7.4%	1.3%	5.89×	13.46
2-1	4.7%	1.7%	10.1%	0.17×	58.57
0-4	1.8%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.58
1-3	3.9%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.57
1-4	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.03×	58.58
2-0	3.4%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.57
2-2	3.3%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.57
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.58
2-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.59
3-0	0.9%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.59
3-1	1.2%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.59
3-2	0.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.59
3-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.59
3-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	8.12×	58.59
4-0	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.59
4-1	0.2%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.59
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.59
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.41×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.12×	58.59
Any other score	1.4%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.58

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar leading at HT (DNB)	65.2%	73.1%	—	—	1.37
Eldense leading at HT (DNB)	34.8%	26.9%	—	—	3.72

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar or draw (X2)	78.8%	75.6%	54.6%	1.38×	1.32
Eldense or Eibar (12)	72.9%	72.1%	73.4%	0.98×	1.39
Eldense or draw (1X)	48.3%	48.6%	71.9%	0.68×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar or draw at HT	82.3%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Eldense or draw at HT	66.9%	66.1%	—	—	1.51
Eldense or Eibar at HT	50.7%	47.4%	—	—	2.11

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar or draw (1UP)	78.8%	84.1%	—	—	1.19
Eldense or draw (1UP)	48.3%	52.3%	—	—	1.91

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar or draw in 2nd half	81.6%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Eldense or Eibar in 2nd half	60.7%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Eldense or draw in 2nd half	57.6%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	69.5%	70.1%	—	—	1.43
Neither half drawn	30.5%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (DNB)	70.9%	71.4%	38.2%	1.87×	1.40
Eldense (DNB)	29.1%	28.6%	61.8%	0.46×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to score first	56.9%	62.2%	—	—	1.61
Eldense to score first	31.7%	26.9%	—	—	3.71
No goal scored	11.4%	9.9%	—	—	10.09

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	60.3%	56.5%	46.1%	1.23×	1.77
Both teams to score	39.7%	43.5%	53.9%	0.81×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	51.8%	47.0%	39.9%	1.18×	2.13
Both score & over 2.5	27.6%	33.6%	42.8%	0.79×	2.97
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	11.3%	1.10×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.5%	8.4%	6.3%	1.33×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	92.8%	89.1%	85.7%	1.04×	1.12
Both teams to score 2+	7.2%	10.9%	14.3%	0.76×	9.18

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	80.2%	72.9%	—	—	1.37
Both teams to score in 2nd half	19.8%	27.1%	—	—	3.69

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	70.8%	67.1%	—	—	1.49
Both score 2nd half only	17.4%	15.7%	—	—	6.39
Both score 1st half only	9.5%	6.8%	—	—	14.81
Both score in both halves	2.4%	4.9%	—	—	20.48

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	88.2%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Both teams to score by HT	11.8%	14.3%	—	—	6.97

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	58.2%	57.3%	—	—	1.74
A goal in each half	41.8%	42.7%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	45.8%	47.4%	41.4%	1.14×	2.11
0-1 goals	37.3%	35.0%	30.7%	1.14×	2.86
4-6 goals	16.3%	20.2%	26.5%	0.76×	4.95
7+ goals	0.6%	1.8%	1.6%	1.14×	55.38

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to score exactly 1	34.8%	33.9%	36.9%	0.92×	2.95
Eibar to score exactly 0	25.3%	27.4%	32.7%	0.84×	3.65
Eibar to score exactly 2	23.9%	22.4%	19.8%	1.13×	4.47
Eibar to score 3+	16.0%	19.5%	10.8%	1.80×	5.12

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense to score exactly 0	46.5%	36.7%	22.5%	1.63×	2.72
Eldense to score exactly 1	35.6%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Eldense to score exactly 2	13.6%	14.4%	25.0%	0.57×	6.97
Eldense to score 3+	4.3%	6.2%	17.0%	0.36×	16.16

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	49.3%	52.6%	—	—	1.90
Eibar leading at HT	33.1%	33.9%	—	—	2.95
Eldense leading at HT	17.7%	15.9%	—	—	6.30

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar -1: 1	48.3%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Eibar -1: X	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Eibar -1: 2	25.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (0:1)	78.8%	73.8%	54.6%	1.35×	1.35
Draw (0:1)	15.0%	13.9%	26.0%	0.53×	7.21
Eldense (0:1)	6.2%	9.2%	19.6%	0.47×	10.87

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (0:2)	93.8%	90.8%	80.4%	1.13×	1.10
Draw (0:2)	4.8%	3.8%	12.0%	0.32×	26.41
Eldense (0:2)	1.4%	3.8%	7.7%	0.49×	26.61

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (0:3)	98.6%	96.6%	92.3%	1.05×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	1.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	42.09
Eldense (0:3)	0.2%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.13

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (0:4)	99.8%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Eldense (0:4)	0.0%	1.2%	0.4%	2.85×	83.47
Draw (0:4)	0.2%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.45

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense (1:0)	48.3%	49.8%	71.9%	0.69×	2.01
Draw (1:0)	26.6%	25.1%	18.0%	1.40×	3.99
Eibar (1:0)	25.0%	25.0%	10.2%	2.46×	3.99

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense (2:0)	75.0%	76.6%	89.8%	0.85×	1.31
Draw (2:0)	15.6%	15.6%	7.0%	2.22×	6.40
Eibar (2:0)	9.5%	6.5%	3.3%	1.98×	15.46

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	45.5%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Halves equal	28.4%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
1st half highest scoring	26.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense to concede	74.7%	73.1%	67.3%	1.09×	1.37
Eldense clean sheet	25.3%	26.9%	32.7%	0.82×	3.72

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense clean sheet in 1st half	57.7%	62.9%	—	—	1.59
Eldense to concede in 1st half	42.3%	37.1%	—	—	2.70

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense over 2.5 corners	92.9%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Eldense over 3.5 corners	85.2%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Eldense over 4.5 corners	74.7%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Eldense over 5.5 corners	62.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Eldense under 6.5 corners	50.0%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Eldense over 6.5 corners	50.0%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Eldense under 5.5 corners	37.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Eldense under 4.5 corners	25.3%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Eldense under 3.5 corners	14.8%	13.7%	—	—	7.27
Eldense under 2.5 corners	7.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.38

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense under 3.5 goals	99.2%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Eldense under 2.5 goals	95.7%	96.3%	83.0%	1.16×	1.04
Eldense under 1.5 goals	82.1%	82.1%	58.0%	1.42×	1.22
Eldense over 0.5 goals	53.5%	53.3%	77.5%	0.69×	1.88
Eldense under 0.5 goals	46.5%	46.7%	22.5%	2.07×	2.14
Eldense over 1.5 goals	17.9%	17.9%	42.0%	0.43×	5.60
Eldense over 2.5 goals	4.3%	3.7%	17.0%	0.21×	27.37
Eldense over 3.5 goals	0.8%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.53

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense under 1.5 in 1st half	95.6%	96.8%	—	—	1.03
Eldense under 0.5 in 1st half	71.9%	79.3%	—	—	1.26
Eldense over 0.5 in 1st half	28.1%	20.7%	—	—	4.82
Eldense over 1.5 in 1st half	4.4%	3.2%	—	—	31.30

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar (home no bet)	65.6%	63.7%	51.3%	1.24×	1.57
Draw (home no bet)	34.4%	36.3%	48.7%	0.75×	2.76

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense even goals	60.8%	55.9%	51.8%	1.08×	1.79
Eldense odd goals	39.2%	44.1%	48.2%	0.92×	2.27

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.4%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
HT 0-1	22.9%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 1-0	13.7%	11.1%	—	—	9.03
HT 1-1	7.5%	7.1%	—	—	14.10
HT 0-2	6.3%	7.1%	—	—	14.12
HT 2-0	2.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.76
Any other HT score	2.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.76
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.2%	—	—	44.78
HT 2-1	1.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.84
HT 2-2	0.3%	2.2%	—	—	44.91

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar at HT / Eibar at FT	28.3%	26.7%	—	—	3.75
Draw at HT / Eibar at FT	21.1%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	19.0%	16.8%	—	—	5.94
Eldense at HT / Eldense at FT	11.1%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Draw at HT / Eldense at FT	9.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.52
Eldense at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.11
Eibar at HT / Draw at FT	3.8%	3.4%	—	—	29.13
Eldense at HT / Eibar at FT	2.2%	3.4%	—	—	29.19
Eibar at HT / Eldense at FT	0.9%	3.4%	—	—	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar to score last	56.8%	56.5%	—	—	1.77
Eldense to score last	31.7%	32.7%	—	—	3.06
No goal scored	11.4%	9.3%	—	—	10.76

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	88.6%	90.7%	—	—	1.10
Eibar to lead by 1 at any time	62.6%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	38.6%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Eldense to lead by 1 at any time	35.0%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Eibar to lead by 2 at any time	29.5%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	12.7%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Eibar to lead by 3 at any time	10.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.60
Eldense to lead by 2 at any time	9.1%	6.6%	—	—	15.24
Eldense to lead by 3 at any time	1.9%	1.6%	—	—	64.04

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense most corners	77.2%	73.8%	—	—	1.36
Eibar most corners	15.2%	19.1%	—	—	5.23
Corners level	7.6%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.4%	87.4%	85.8%	1.02×	1.14
1-4 goals	82.0%	83.5%	78.1%	1.07×	1.20
1-3 goals	71.7%	72.4%	63.0%	1.15×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.1%	63.5%	67.8%	0.94×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.5%	63.5%	64.2%	0.99×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.1%	59.2%	56.6%	1.05×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.4%	53.1%	42.0%	1.27×	1.88
2-3 goals	45.8%	48.7%	41.4%	1.17×	2.06
3-6 goals	35.5%	39.2%	47.5%	0.82×	2.55
3-5 goals	33.9%	35.4%	44.0%	0.80×	2.83
3-4 goals	29.5%	30.2%	36.3%	0.83×	3.31
4-6 goals	16.3%	18.6%	26.5%	0.70×	5.38
4-5 goals	14.7%	14.9%	22.9%	0.65×	6.73
5-6 goals	6.0%	8.7%	11.4%	0.77×	11.45
7+ goals	0.6%	2.5%	1.6%	1.60×	39.55

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eibar never behind	53.6%	62.7%	—	—	1.60
Eldense never behind	25.9%	29.9%	—	—	3.35

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	50.0%	50.8%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.0%	49.2%	48.5%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.5%	58.0%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 1st half	41.5%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.8%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.2%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	97.8%	95.5%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.4%	92.3%	87.2%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	88.6%	87.7%	90.9%	0.97×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	72.0%	1.14×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	63.9%	61.8%	51.0%	1.21×	1.62
Over 1.5 goals	62.7%	61.8%	69.3%	0.89×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	37.3%	38.2%	30.7%	1.25×	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	36.1%	38.2%	49.0%	0.78×	2.62
Over 3.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	28.0%	0.63×	5.67
Under 0.5 goals	11.4%	12.3%	9.1%	1.35×	8.12
Over 4.5 goals	6.6%	7.7%	12.8%	0.60×	12.95
Over 5.5 goals	2.2%	4.5%	5.2%	0.87×	22.22

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.3%	97.3%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.7%	97.3%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	92.6%	92.5%	84.9%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	79.1%	76.0%	64.6%	1.18×	1.32
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	50.8%	51.8%	38.5%	1.34×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	49.2%	48.2%	61.5%	0.78×	2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	20.9%	24.0%	35.4%	0.68×	4.16
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	7.4%	7.5%	15.1%	0.50×	13.26
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.3%	2.7%	5.6%	0.49×	36.38
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.7%	2.7%	1.6%	1.68×	36.43

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	94.1%	93.0%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	78.1%	78.7%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	64.0%	—	—	1.56
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	36.0%	—	—	2.78
Over 1.5 in 1st half	21.9%	21.3%	—	—	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.0%	7.0%	—	—	14.23

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	86.6%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	71.8%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	28.2%	22.1%	—	—	4.52
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	13.4%	14.6%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense not to score in both halves	90.1%	89.7%	—	—	1.12
Eibar not to score in both halves	76.2%	78.3%	—	—	1.28
Eibar to score in both halves	23.8%	21.7%	—	—	4.62
Eldense to score in both halves	9.9%	10.3%	—	—	9.72

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	39.7%	39.9%	53.9%	0.74×	2.51
Only Eibar scores	35.1%	39.8%	13.5%	2.96×	2.51
Only Eldense scores	13.9%	11.0%	23.7%	0.46×	9.13
Neither team scores	11.4%	10.9%	9.1%	1.20×	9.14

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	26.6%	25.0%	20.4%	1.22×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	25.8%	25.0%	21.7%	1.15×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	19.2%	17.5%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 0 goals	11.4%	12.1%	9.1%	1.32×	8.29
Exactly 4 goals	10.3%	12.1%	15.2%	0.79×	8.29
Exactly 5 goals	4.4%	4.4%	7.8%	0.57×	22.60
6 or more goals	2.2%	4.4%	5.2%	0.86×	22.64

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	36.0%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	35.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
No goals in 2nd half	28.2%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense not to win both halves	96.8%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Eibar not to win both halves	86.0%	88.0%	—	—	1.14
Eibar to win both halves	14.0%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Eldense to win both halves	3.2%	2.8%	—	—	35.39

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense to win neither half	67.2%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Eibar to win either half	61.5%	65.3%	—	—	1.53
Eibar to win neither half	38.5%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Eldense to win either half	32.8%	32.2%	—	—	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Eldense not to win to nil	86.1%	88.2%	76.3%	1.16×	1.13
Eibar not to win to nil	64.9%	66.9%	86.5%	0.77×	1.50
Eibar to win to nil	35.1%	33.1%	13.5%	2.46×	3.02
Eldense to win to nil	13.9%	11.8%	23.7%	0.50×	8.47

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	27.1%	27.8%	26.6%	1.05×	3.59
Eibar by 1	26.6%	27.8%	18.0%	1.55×	3.59
Eibar by 2	15.6%	16.9%	7.0%	2.40×	5.90
Eldense by 1	15.0%	11.8%	26.0%	0.46×	8.46
Eibar by 3+	9.5%	7.2%	3.3%	2.22×	13.79
Eldense by 2	4.8%	2.7%	12.0%	0.23×	36.91
Eldense by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	7.7%	0.35×	37.03