Empoli v Cagliari — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 6 April 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 7
On target
1 – 1
Shots in box
0 – 1
xG per shot
0.08 – 0.02
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.09
Goals − xG
-0.39 – -0.16
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Empoli win
27.7%
Draw
30.7%
Cagliari win
41.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Empoli are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.5 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 11.3 xG
conceded 14
from 10.5 xG
Cagliari are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 4.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
LWLWDLWWWL last 10
scored 10
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.17–1.47 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.47–1.27 | 1-1 12% | 52% | 55% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Empoli 0.39 xGCagliari 0.16 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Empoli attacking right
Cagliari attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19' |
 Cagliari |
Tommaso Augello | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 19' |
 Empoli |
Liam Henderson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 20' |
Empoli |
Sebastiano Esposito | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Christian Kouamé |
| 26' |
Cagliari |
Roberto Piccoli | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Nicolas Viola |
| 32' |
Cagliari |
Nadir Zortea | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Cagliari |
Nicolas Viola | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Roberto Piccoli |
| 48' |
Cagliari |
Nicolas Viola | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 50' |
Empoli |
Liam Henderson | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mattia Viti |
| 61' |
Empoli |
Junior Sambia | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 63' |
Cagliari |
Florinel Coman | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Gianluca Gaetano |
| 63' |
Empoli |
Liberato Cacace | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastiano Esposito |
| 80' |
Cagliari |
Matteo Prati | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Florinel Coman |
Players
Empoli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberato Cacace AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Liam Henderson MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luca Marianucci DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alberto Grassi MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Devis Vásquez GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mattia Viti DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Saba Goglichidze DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sebastiano Esposito FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.01 |
| Christian Kouamé AMC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Junior Sambia DMR | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Tyronne Ebuehi Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lorenzo Colombo Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ola Solbakken Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cagliari
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nadir Zortea DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Tommaso Augello DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Ndary Adopo MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Yerry Mina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Elia Caprile GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Sebastiano Luperto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Roberto Piccoli FW | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Matteo Prati MC | 83 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| José Luis Palomino DC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Nicolas Viola AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.06 |
| Zito AMC | 60 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Florinel Coman Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Gianluca Gaetano Sub | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Gabriele Zappa Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Leonardo Pavoletti Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alessandro Deiola Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |